Major swing in Malacca assembly but not BN's vote share

 

The recently concluded Malacca state election has produced dramatic results in the composition of the legislative assembly and may suggest that BN is really popular now.

However, a closer inspection of the results shows things are not that simple. This article will demonstrate why by focussing on Umno and its two splinter parties PAS and Bersatu. It will not take into consideration voter turnout.

Vote share: Marginal gains for BN, nose dive for Harapan

In Malaysia's electoral system, vote share - the proportion of votes received by a party - is often overlooked but an important indicator of popularity in a given community.

By comparing the 2018 and 2021 election results for Malacca, it is clear that BN is still not the choice of the majority of Malaccans.

BN's vote share increased by only 0.64 percent. The non-BN vote split between Harapan and PN was enough to give them more than two-thirds majority in the legislative assembly.

Harapan's vote share was down 15.31 percent, mostly due to rural anti-BN voters shifting to PN. In 2018, the rural constituencies were mostly assigned to Bersatu, who now leads the PN coalition.

While winning 21 seats, BN won more than 50 percent of the vote share in only seven constituencies.

There is no doubt that BN knows how to use the first-past-the-post system and electoral boundaries in its favour.

Vote share: Significant gains for Umno but not everywhere

Umno made a significant 2.94 percent gain in vote share compared to 2018, but a closer inspection of the results showed that this gain was not across the board.

The party won 16 seats in 2021 but lost ground in six of those victories - Kuala Linggi (-1.34 percent vote share reduction), Tanjung Bidara (-9.01 percent), Pantai Kundor (-5.39 percent), Rim (-1.49 percent), Serkam (-4.14 percent) and Sungai Rembai (-3.25 percent).

On average, a winning Umno candidate requires 48 percent of the vote share to win in Malacca during this election.

The other big gainer was Bersatu which more than doubled its vote share in 2021.

It has to be stressed that Bersatu fielded considerably more candidates in 2021 (15 candidates) than in 2018 (6 candidates). More candidates mean more opportunities to pick up votes, which also explains why in this statistical category Gerakan did significantly better (5 candidates in 2021 as opposed to 1 in 2018). Bersatu could also count on PAS supporters this time around.

The big losers are DAP, PKR and PAS. In the case of PAS, it must be pointed out that the party fielded 24 candidates during the 2018 elections and only eight this time.

Bersatu wasn't a big threat

Umno and Bersatu went head-to-head for 11 seats and the results showed that Umno generally outmatched Bersatu.

There were two exceptions: Bersatu won one contest (Sungai Udang) and came within striking distance in another (Tanjung Bidara, five percent vote share difference).

On average, Bersatu was 15.4 percent behind Umno in terms of vote share.

PAS, on the other hand, fared worse against Umno. They faced off for six seats. On average, PAS was 21.9 percent behind Umno in terms of vote share.

However, it must be noted that PAS came very close to Umno in Serkam - losing out by just 99 votes.

Umno, Bersatu and PAS all wanted to appeal to the same Malay base. The clear winner in Malacca is Umno by a mile.

Every coalition lost some deposits

Having more competition in 2021 means that the likelihood of losing one's deposit is higher, and it was definitely true.

BN, Harapan and PN all lost two deposits each.

At the component party level, BN's MCA and PN's Gerakan lost deposits for Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir. This is a first for MCA in these two constituencies.

As for Harapan, PKR and Amanah lost their deposits in Tanjung Bidara and Ayer Limau respectively.

However, there is good news for PAS. In 2018, out of its 24 candidates, 10 candidates lost their deposits. This time, they have a clean sheet. - Mkini