Study claims one-third BN voters switched to PN in state polls

 

A study conducted by the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) indicated that one-third of voters who supported BN in last November’s general election switched their allegiance to Perikatan Nasional in the recent state polls.

The study compared results in six states: Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, and Penang.

“In general, in all six states that have just held state assembly elections, as many as 56 percent of BN voters from the last GE15 continued to vote for the unity government coalition of Pakatan Harapan and BN.

“The lowest voter transferability was in Kedah at 39 percent while the highest was on the east coast, which is 85 percent in Terengganu and 81 percent in Kelantan,” said NASR data analyst Azlan Musyabri.

They found that the impact was more significant in states governed by Harapan, where only around 55 percent of BN voters during GE15 still cast their votes for the federal government.

“In Selangor, BN’s low rate of vote transferability caused Harapan-BN to lose some marginal seats such as Bukit Melawati (24 percent BN), Ijok (29 percent BN), Semenyih (31 percent BN), Taman Medan (35 percent BN), Paya Jaras (35 percent BN), Gombak Setia (42 percent BN), Dengkil (58 percent BN), Hulu Bernam (59 percent BN), and Sungai Kandis (65 percent BN).

“Amanah’s chances of retaining their seats were also impacted by BN voter transferability. For example, in the Kota Lama seat, which is the only seat won by Harapan in Kelantan, this success was helped a lot by 73 percent of BN voters who still continued to support the unity government.

“However in Paroi, Negeri Sembilan, Amanah lost this seat when 74 percent of BN voters changed their support to PN in the state elections,” said Azlan.

NASR said their calculations were on the basis of GE15 voter turnout prorated according to the lower voter turnout for state elections, while GE15 parliamentary votes were distributed along the boundary lines of the respective state assembly seats.

The figures presented by NASR seemed to cast doubts over the extent to which BN voters are still loyal to the party and the leadership of Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

“There are also seats where the BN vote was taken away by Independent candidates who are former Umno branch chiefs such as in Ayer Hangat, Kedah and Gombak Setia, Selangor, which also contributed to the defeat of Harapan-BN.

“In Ayer Hangat, Safwan Hanif who ran as an Independent candidate got 6,877 votes whereas PN won with a majority of 3,824.

“Likewise in Gombak Setia, Mohamed Salim who ran as an Independent candidate got 1,076 votes whereas PN’s Hilman Idham won with only a 58-vote majority.

“In conclusion, in most marginal seats, the vote transferability of BN voters is a factor determining the winnability of the competing party, so it can also challenge what used to be a Harapan-BN safe seat.

“Umno-BN should do something to determine the direction of the party and re-engage their loyal voters to continue to remain relevant,” said NASR. - Mkini