Why a claim about Melaka history doesn’t add up

 

The Malay psyche has been under close scrutiny a lot lately. I feel rather inadequate and embarrassed with it being so publicly examined.

But enough about me and my inadequacies. Meanwhile, the 2S – the “Socks Saga” (or, for some unkind souls, the Sh*t Show) grinds along the national consciousness, kept alive on the 3Rs path of race, religion and royalty.

In spite of attacks by the forces of common sense, decency, and a lot of hidden derision, it soldiers on, seemingly unscathed. Hooray…I think.

On top of that there’s a replay of a comedy that played to much fanfare last year.

I’m of course talking about the retired academician being called out – by, of all people, a Frenchman, Mon Dieu! – about some claims made regarding some old Melakan naval history.

I watched parts of the YouTube video of the claim being made, though it looked too much like a Bumiputera Economic Congress production so I felt I already knew the beginning, middle and ending and switched off. After all there’ll be annual replays forever.

The academic’s claim was about how the glorious old port of Melaka, presumably pre-colonisation, serviced two thousand ships every day. A rather remarkable claim I’d say, so it certainly deserves proper scrutiny.

Doing the research

Given that the said academic, while retired, is now attached to the university’s Institute of Mathematical Research, I start with the assumption that he knew his numbers. So here goes.

First, I remember some stuff I read growing up in the 60s written by a local historian (or perhaps a mathematician) whose name I’ve unfortunately forgotten, published by Dewan Bahasa dan Pustaka, the government’s Malay language institute.

It claimed Melaka was a thriving port, which was unsurprising given its strategic location along one of the world’s busiest sea trade routes. That, after all, was why it was invaded – certainly not for its fruits…or sweets…

The book said Melaka had a population of around 30,000 at its peak. That also sounded reasonable, though I remember thinking that’s less than half the capacity of a major football stadium today.

But the world was much smaller then, and Melaka was only a stopping point for ships for refreshment and provisioning and not so much for transshipment or ship repairs or a major export hub.

The calculations

So, here’s my calculative logic in examining this issue to see if the claims of 2,000 ships per day were true.

To start off with, 2,000 ships per day coming in also mean 2,000 ships – even if not necessarily the same ships – going out. Otherwise, the harbour would be one massive junk yard full of perahus, galleys and…junks.

This means there were 4,000 ship movements per day.

Back to the 30,000 people in Melaka then. Presumably half were female, so I’m quite happy to take them off the calculations, leaving 15,000 males.

Assuming an average lifespan of 45 years old (probably shorter, but we’ll go with 45), and at a time relatively normal, meaning wars or diseases or religious schools hadn’t ravaged any particular demographic unduly, then a third, or 5,000, of these males would be below 15 years old.

Assuming these 5,000 were going to school (or were Mat Rempits – same thing), that would leave 10,000 people from the age of 16 to 45 in the workforce.

This assumes the male workers worked until they died at 45 – nobody ever retired. I also reasonably assume they didn’t have Employees Provident Fund or government pensions, though I’m happy to review any academic findings claiming we’d already invented the EPF and government pensions back then.

Counting the workforce

Of the 10,000, I’d say half weren’t available to work on any port-related activities because they were either working at the palace or as traders, farmers, lecturers, perhaps with the army or navy (though not likely with the air force, but I’m sure there’ll be papers proving we already had an air force back then, too).

That left 5,000 males to work with port-related activities, again assuming none were on MC (which wasn’t invented yet then…I think) or claiming social security disability benefits (ditto).

So, these 5,000 males had to handle 4,000 ship movements per day – piloting them over the treacherous tides and mudbanks, manning the barges to load and unload the ships, and operating water taxis for the ship crews to come ashore and enjoy the fruits and sweets of Melaka.

All work those days was done manually – there was no electricity or mechanised cranes or containers to help with efficiency (and again, I stand ready to be corrected of course).

The miracle behind it

Any work examining passports and visas and health certificates and dutiable goods as well as stamping paperwork etc were all done by the other group of 5,000, so this doesn’t affect the calculations and assumptions on the port-related group.

Somehow, without mechanisation, much less computerisation or digitalisation, without foreign labour and migrant population – though you can argue most Melakans then were migrants from across the straits by way of Singapore – I doubt they could’ve handled 4,000 ship movements a day.

They could’ve miraculously done that had they had a powerful weapon we have now – government slogans. Perhaps something like “Melaka Boleh!”, or “Melaka Menuju 4,000!”. We have all seen how government slogans work wonders in advancing our society.

Open to rebuttals

There’s no evidence of such slogans however, though as always I’m open to serious academic rebuttals from said university, perhaps from its Institute of Unclear Physics, where of course retired historians are members.

Before I declare Q.E.D to this proof – which, for the benefit of those who haven’t attended any tertiary institute of mathematical research, means Quite Easy, Duh! – I must include some caveats.

It’s possible that not all 5,000 men worked on port-related matters. There were bound to be some women, too, taking over from menfolk who chose to stay at home to attend political ceramahs or organise some business boycotts.

There could also be illegal foreign workers not captured in any historical records on top of the local workforce, increasing the feasibility of the claim by a notch.

The information I have to work on may also have been faked by Orientalists who wanted to make the old Melaka, and by extension all Malays, look bad.

Peer-reviews, anyone?

I also did not include any possible objections from Indonesia, who may not take kindly to claims that the Straits of Malacca was our backwater, with the role of the various empires in Sumatra merely to provide an opposite shoreline to create the straits.

But otherwise, I stand by my thoroughly researched mathematical proof, and would welcome any suggestion of any peer-reviewed journal that doesn’t charge too much to publish this paper.

Otherwise, I’d set up my own journal, which I shall name the International Journal of Mathematical and Historical Research into Paranormal Anomalies Regarding Mid Second Millennial Claims on Maritime Operational Excellence.

I’d also welcome any invitation to join the Institute of Mathematical Research, given my eminent reputation on the core requirement for membership of such an institution – creative fiction writing.

I will bring my own teh tarik and my wife’s buah and gula melaka for morning breaks. Only fair, no? - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not reflect those of MMKtT.