BN's ambition to become top dog once again and contest at least 115 Parliament seats in the next general election may create conflict with its current ally, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
The plan reportedly espoused by BN chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi would require that all seats not won by Anwar's Pakatan Harapan in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah be given to BN to contest.
It may also require Harapan to give up at least three of the 79 Parliament seats it holds.
BN has no presence in Sarawak since the state chapter broke away in 2018 to form Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS).
Besides denying him a desired second term as prime minister, if Anwar were to agree with Zahid's plan, it would mean that his party PKR would not be able to expand its influence - assuming the Harapan coalition remains intact by the time of the next general election.
This doesn't align with PKR's aspirations under Anwar as exemplified by the Sabah election last November.
In that election, the party expanded and fielded candidates in 13 seats, despite winning only one out of 10 seats in 2020.
International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor Syaza Shukri concurred that Anwar is not likely to consent to BN's plan.
"I don’t think Anwar would allow up to 115. That would definitely encroach on Harapan’s seats and become a three-cornered fight.
"And in three-cornered fights, I don’t think BN would do well. I think the best (option for BN) is still with Madani. Malay seats for BN and non-Malay seats for Harapan," she told Malaysiakini.
The numbers game
Sunway University political analyst Wong Chin Huat said the actual number that BN might settle on may be smaller, at around 80 seats or 40 percent of the peninsula and Sabah constituencies.
He said this number would still allow BN to exude a message that it can be the largest bloc and lead the next government, while reducing overlap with Harapan.
As for the matter of potential objections from Anwar, Wong indicated that the prime minister will have to make compromises.
"Anwar is not dominant enough to ensure a majority win on his own like Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, hence he can't tell his allies to 100 percent not contest against each other.
"He is like Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, maybe stronger. But not (as strong as) Sarawak Premier Abang Johari Openg (in the state) yet," the pundit said.
Anwar's consent aside, there is a question of whether BN's plans are realistic.
The coalition's electoral fortunes have been in steady decline. It last won the popular vote in 2008, and by 2022 its total vote share had declined to 23.4 percent.
This drop in popular votes also translated into fewer seats, bagging just 30 constituencies - an all-time low for the coalition.
Even in partnership with Harapan, there is no guarantee it can regain lost ground from Perikatan Nasional in a straight fight.
In the 2023 six state elections, BN was completely wiped out in Kedah and Terengganu.
While in-fighting is weighing PN down now, time is on its side.
BN’s chances
Anwar - who is losing ground among his own support base - is not likely to call an election this year until he can regain Harapan supporters' trust.
By then, expectations are high that new PN chief Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar would have righted the coalition's ship.
Syaza said there is even a possibility that Samsuri would have come up with a strategy to improve PN's appeal to non-Malays.
She also said that conditions that make BN's plan sound good today may not be true once the general election comes along.
"So while today, yes, BN appears the stronger coalition with PKR infighting and DAP threatening to leave the executive. But my take is all of these would go away near GE, especially with DAP.
"BN still needs to work the ground. It’s not a given," she cautioned.
One key element to BN's chances, should it proceed with this plan, is appealing to Malay sentiments.
It is likely why Zahid is keen on a "grand collaboration" between Malay parties on communal issues, despite his deputy Mohamad Hasan warning that ethnonationalism may not be enough for the party to regain support.
Syaza said it is also why the Umno leadership tolerates party youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh.
"I do think they tolerate Akmal to keep the grassroots satisfied that Umno still fights for the Malay issue, even if at the top they are comfortable with Madani.
"It’s a political strategy to make sure you’re flexible enough and can change course without appearing to abandon any principle," she added. - Mkini
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.