Be bitter now to see better later

Dear Malaysians, please take 20 seconds of your precious Sunday to see this table above produced by the Health Ministry three days ago. I have highlighted the important region so that I will only take 10 seconds of your time. Go.  

Allow me to first congratulate and thank you for your precious time. Now I request five more minutes of your time to justify your precious 10 seconds taken.

It is time we face facts, figures, numbers and the bitter reality. Whether you like it or not, it has happened - we are now seeing asymptomatic cases which are perhaps already at large in our community. 

I have been saying this since the beginning of the movement control order (MCO) - it will happen if we do not take precautionary steps. Even with so much control, the reach of asymptomatic cases has happened - what more during a lax of these control measures?

From a brief calculation, a 95 percent Confidence Interval (CI) for the above 84.9 percent of asymptomatic patients (meaning to say, if we were to do this test 100 times randomly), we would have obtained a positive asymptomatic percentage between 81.82 percent and 87.55 percent (520 to 556). 

Having said that, let us be optimistic and I mean overtly optimistic. Let us half that lower percentage of 81.82 percent to 40 percent. Now, assuming that this figure of 40 percent is the figure currently in the community, calculating from the 6,872 cases that have been diagnosed (assuming they were all symptomatic), we will have approximately 4,582 patients out there (a range of 95 percent CI possibility 4,479-4,685) who are asymptomatic. 

It is going to be Hari Raya, let’s be even more generous, we shall halve it and you will begin with the calculations. Yes, you got it right, 2,291 asymptomatic people in the public (and that is the 20 percent figure of the total cases we have till today). 

Sadly, without mass screening and without the right kind of tests we will never know this exact figure. A near estimation can be made with the antibody testing kits but then again, we would be underestimating. Let us not get into the argument about the number of tests that we must be conducting right now as I have only another three minutes of your time (I am keeping my side of the bargain).

These asymptomatic cases, fortunately or unfortunately, (most of them) will never know that they have or had Covid-19, which is not a main course of concern at the moment. It is the imminent spread that can happen from these individuals to the vulnerable population that is the major concern. Those very young children, the elderly people (over 60 years of age) and those with an immunocompromised status (those with uncontrolled diabetes/on long term immunosuppressants like steroids for medical conditions/chronic respiratory health issues/HIV). 

Thus, non-compliance to the standard operating procedures (SOPs) especially the 3Cs - gatherings in confined, crowded and closed areas - are hazardous. It is best the public accepts that we are all responsible for fighting the Covid-19 situation. 

Please show some love to our vulnerable population and opt for more stringent rules than the ones already set, on top of the 3Cs. You can do so by wearing face masks, practice social distancing, have strict hand hygiene by either using alcohol scrubs or soap and water along with the habit of disinfecting materials.

I know it is Raya and trust me, I love this time of the year with all the fantastic fellowship/food, but we must accept that if we are going to win this battle, we must opt for more stringent rules/sacrifices including a decision to spend Raya at home with our core/nucleus families only. 

Avoid travelling (even if it is intrastate) and become that Malaysian Olympic hero that you always craved to be. We never had an Olympic gold medal, but with this upcoming event, and if we all opt with more stringent guidelines to keep the numbers extremely low, Malaysia will be the first ever country in the world to go from zero gold medals to 32 million odd gold medals overnight. 

This is your chance to be part of a glorious historic event. I hope that you will not disappoint.

Salam Ramadan and salam Hari Raya - moderate numbers in celebrations equal a greater number in victory over Covid-19. - Mkini