Be wiser, step back PH, strengthen for GE15.

Pakatan Harapan will win big, perhaps beyond the two-thirds majority in the next General Election if it takes a step back now, recomposes, gathers all its strength and reorganizes itself. 

After all, surveys are already showing that people’s support for Harapan is still at an all-time high and is the preferred coalition to be the government.

Forget for now, about forming a federal government. Think big, think long-term. Even if Tun Mahathir’s motion for confidence in the Parliament succeeds, it would still be a fragile and weak government, living in constant fear, never know when another unscrupulous frog would sell his soul. 

Harapan could better serve our country by being an offensive opposition than, without a comfortable majority, be a defensive government.

Harapan already gained the advantage of the three most important political affluence that will, next time around, deliver them a more secured and stable government come GE15.

First, Harapan now already has a collection of leaders who have learned the trade and gained the experience, insights and the acumen of running a federal government. 

Keeping the ruling government to check and balance is paramount to the functioning of any democracy. So any departure of by the so-called "backdoor" ministers from good governance and sound judgement will become quickly apparent to them.

Secondly, the Harapan coalition members may be united by ethnicity but by convictions, principles and political tenets, they are so incompatible to each other, their ambiguity is yelling loud. 

You can already see them ravenously scuffling and scrambling for lucrative positions of power right from JKKKs, councils to GLCs to even having to create positions of special envoys with ministerial ranks.

Thirdly, very soon, Bersatu, Umno and PAS, will start jostling with each other for the very same voter base that for decades they have been hurling each other accusations and condemnations. 

Nobody can continue to bluff and always get away. Not this time. This infighting effect alone will cut PN down. Umno will be uprooted, PAS will be decimated and Bersatu will evaporate. 

This will force them to reinvent themselves and hopefully, they will later come back to serve as an alternate coalition.

Perikatan Nasional (PN) is already begun supplying generous supply of projectiles, some as comical as "Doraemon", "air suam", weight in kilometres", 500 countries and Tik Tok. 

Failure to revive the economy, the plundering of national resources, very high unemployment and effects of abuses of power and misappropriations will soon start kicking in. 

BN government under Najib had already emptied our coffers. PN now will have to scrape the bottom hollow. Old habits die hard.

With Umno back in power and the kleptocrats heading ministries and GLCs, it is just a matter of time when reports of misappropriations will mushroom. 

The snowball has begun with the RM30 million case in Health Ministry. Only God knows how many more rookeries below the table has already taken its drive. The RM35 food basket for RM100 is yet another fiasco.

Long before this parliament goes "sine die", PH will already have multiple repositories overflowing with expostulations to uproot PN for good. 

Without Parliamentary scrutiny, no one will know how the RM250 Billion Covid-19 stimulus package was actually spent and how much got dissipated if any. It is a time bomb waiting to explode. With the economy taking a big it, our masses may be very unforgiving.

The political divide between PH and PN is split almost evenly. Hence Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin must buy as many unscrupulous zero integrity frogs he can, in order to fortify his position and that of PN. Even so, the government will still remain very fragile, weak and vulnerable.

Those who follow my Facebook and my talks during the campaign period of GE13, GE14, will recall that I had prophesized, that even if PH comes to power, it might not last more than 3 years. 

The reason I gave is repeated below. But I still advocated that PH goes for it. It a process it must go through before politics in Malaysia finally matures.

One, PH leaders would be inexperienced in federal governance. Two, they will need time to dismantle the deeply ingrained corrupted systems in place. Three, some members of the coalition will be new, so they have to learn to work as a team. Four, they would need gigantic efforts to peel the civil service away from BN. Five, quickly kick in meaningful reforms on the basis of which they would come to power.

I drew this parallel from the history of India in the 70s. I was with Delhi University and somewhat involved with the student union. It was the time when Indira Gandhi’s Congress lost power for the first time since independence. People were restless, in oblivion, asking what would happen to the country? Nobody can lead the country except Congress, the people reckoned.

The courts found Indira Gandhi guilty of election malpractice and corruption when she was challenged for her Rae Barely seat. She quickly imposed rule by emergency and jailed all main opposition leaders. 

The country protested. Riding that public anger, two years later, Morarji Desai, a former Congress leader himself, led a new coalition named Janata Party (later to become BJP) to take power and became the prime minister. He lasted only 28 months.

My prophecy turned out true. GE14 played out exactly as I had envisaged. The situation when PH took power, was almost alike. The people never knew the government without BN. I relived that part of India’s history, the same circumstances. It repeated here. The resemblance was striking.

Janata Party (JP) brought down the Congress government that had ruled since independence. PH too brought down BN who ruled since independence. JP was a coalition of several fronts, two of which was a breakaway party of mother party, Congress. 

PH too was a coalition including two breakaway parties from its mother party, BN. JP quickly went for reforms and anti-corruption agenda. PH had too.

JP remained weak due to continuous infighting and ideological differences, PH too. Janata Party fell in 28 months, PH lost power in 22 months. But what happens next is the point I am trying to make with this piece.

When it came back recomposed later, Janata Party (later BJP) from the experienced they had in the short spell government, had become far smarter and wiser. From then on, there was no looking back. 

Two major coalitions got formed and subsequent national general elections were fought between them. Powers rotated between them and both immensely contributed to India’s development making today the rising economic giant in the world stage.

Hopefully, leaders in PH too have learned their lesson and become more composed, smarter, wiser and less ravenous for positions. 

Hopefully by the time PH comes to power again, perhaps GE15, they will appreciate real talents more than just rewarding party supporters to positions and power. PH will then rule good for a long time leaving PN components to deal with their karma.

The thieves, religious bigots and kleptocrats would be washed away in the annals of history. 

Hopefully, every citizen then would be treated equally and the race and religion factors would forever be buried deep. This time around, the separation of powers must work.

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SARAJUN HODA is a social activist with Aliran and former deputy chairperson of Bersih 2.0. - Mkini