The Twilight of the Iranian Revolution - New Yorker Magazine

The following is adapted from The New Yorker magazine's feature  "The Twilight of the Iranian Revolution".  You can read the full article here  which is about an hour's reading but really worth your time - or I think so. 

For decades, Ayatollah Khamenei has professed enmity with America.
Now his regime is threatened from within the country.

By Dexter Filkins -  May 18, 2020

Khamenei, at eighty, is beset by unrest
“will do whatever it takes to hold on to power”

Corona virus hushed up

last December Iranian city of Gorgan racked with mysterious virus
cause was coronavirus
hospital officials told to keep quiet
given special instructions not to release statistics on infection, deaths
medical staff ordered NOT to wear masks
to prevent fear in society
meant high casualties among medical staff

Iranian media nearly silent
editors made clear they should not pursue them

Feb 19th, govt finally announced two died of coronavirus
hundreds of sick crowding hospital in Gorgan
So many bodies piled up

Iranian leaders infected by corona virus

now Iran global center of coronavirus - 70,000 cases, 4000 deaths
Feb 24th, Iraj Harirchi, Iran deputy health minister tested positive
At least 50 clerics, political figures infected, 20 died
2 vice-presidents and 3 closest advisers fell illAyatollah Ali Khamenei suggested US deployed biological weapon

in April inmates rioted at prisons across country
terrified they were trapped with virus
guards opened fire, killing 35

Iran asked IMF for emergency loan of US$5 billion dollars
1st time in 60 years Iran appealed to I.M.F.

Iranian people lose faith in ayatollahs

Public confidence in theocracy has collapsed
ayatollahs made country economically hobbled
cut off from rest of the world

intensified corruption of governing élite

85% of population hates the system

system is incapable of reform

Supreme leader ayatollah Khamenei

Speculation about Khamenei’s longevity rampant in govt, military
Khamenei 80 years old, prostate-cancer survivor
struggle to succeed him already begun
Khamenei spent decades placing loyalists throughout country
What happens when you take him out ? Chaos

Khamenei has nearly absolute power
control of government, command of armed forces, judiciary
Khamenei oversaw largest concentrations of wealth
institutional funds worth hundreds of billions of dollars

Khamenei continued assassination of exiles
killing 160 people worldwide
preside over murderous campaign against M.E.K.
tens of thousands executed
Khamenei banned books, closed newspapers, imprisoned artists

The corruption

senior govt officials exploited Iran's closed market to enrich themselves
nearly all of Iran’s chadors—cloaks worn by women— imported
powerful people in govt get rich from imports, by blocking competition

election of 2009 - authorities declared Ahmadinejad winner

too soon for votes to have been counted, regime stole election

Iranians poured into streets to protest rigged outcome

security forces swept in, arresting, beating, killing protesters

beginning of Green Movement

demonstrations subsided 10 months later
4000 demonstrators detained
70 killed, and many raped and tortured in prison

Everyday corruption

daily struggle of making business work in unpredictable, corrupt system
chronic shortages of material and unruly inspectors pushing for bribes
Plan for next quarter? Cannot plan for tomorrow.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.)

controls economy - oil production, factories, ports
state-owned enterprises privatized—acquired by I.R.G.C.
IRGC owns construction companies, oil refineries, mines
19-story luxury mall in posh neighborhood of Tehran

IRGC controls more than 50% of economy
2009 IRGC investment arm paid $7.8b for majority stake in Telecom Iran

IRGC grown into untouchable élite
own schools, own markets, own neighborhoods, own resorts
IRGC neighborhoods carbon copy of Beverly Hills

November 2019 protests a turning point

Nov 15th 2019 price of petrol raised 50%
people swarmed streets to protest
touching off largest, most disruptive riots since revolution

protests quickly became outlet for broader frustrations
spending money on other countries, Hamas, Syria, Hezbollah
protesting same people in charge for 40 years
these people turned Iran into pariah state

cannot have fun—Iran is joyless religious dictatorship

crime for women to leave house without hijab
2014, 6 men, women dancing sentenced 1 year jail, 91 lashes each

Nov 2019 demos begun by workers, regime’s traditional supporters
spread rapidly throughout the country
turned violent; demonstrators burned stores, trashed police stations

Nov 2019 protests show regime lost support of working class

regime struck back brutally
govt switched off phones, Internet
7 thousand people arrested
Amnesty estimated 300 dead
Reuters put number at 1,500
200 people buried in one area in single night

unprecedented - demonstrators began to fight back
6 police officers, soldiers killed by protesters
4 shot to death; others stabbed

Security forces encountered resistance in Kurdistan, Khuzestan
some kind of organized resistance
Khamenei showed no pity toward killed

Regime invades privacy

In Iran most intense unrest comes from regime’s intrusions into private life
protest movement to open soccer games to women
2018 - 35 women arrested at football match

2017 Vida Movahed removed her hijab - arrested, jailed
her lawyer, Nasrin Sotoudeh, sentenced 38 years jail, 148 lashes

2019 - 29 yr woman Sahar Khodayari arrested at soccer match
She set herself on fire and died

Iran devastated by corona virus

114,000 confirmed cases, 7,000 dead
no reasonable prospect of containment

Khamenei declared triumph
Supreme Leader once confided, “We need the United States as an enemy.”

IRGC will succeed Ayatollah Khamenei?

Khamenei’s preferred successor his son, Mojtaba
many believe after Khamenei, I.R.G.C. will select Supreme Leader
Some expect IRGC to rule outright

Several former IRGC commanders already assumed prominent political roles
IRGC's ability to spend vast resources on favored candidates
I.R.G.C. not going to take over all of a sudden
slow-motion coup in the works for years

IRGC will maintain façade of ayatollah rule
Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s Chief Justice, frequently mentioned as candidate
Raisi helped carry out killings of thousands of prisoners and leftists

coronavirus strengthened I.R.G.C.’s influence
In March, Khamenei gave IRGC responsibility for virus
IRGC deployed tens of thousands of troops throughout country

IRGC controls information about virus, including death statistics
IRGC wants to contain damage caused by wrong decisions by Khamenei
blame them on executive branch, President, Ministry of Health

I.R.G.C. intent on preserving status quo, which enriched, empowered them
Iranian state becoming even more conservative

Feb parliamentary elections authorities barred 7,000 candidates
more than 50% of those who attempted to run

Jan 2020 Ukrainian Airlines plane went down near Tehran, 176 on board
IRGC shot down plane, mistaking it for enemy cruise missile
Angry demonstrations broke out
Everyone against government

Iran’s economic problems deepen
regime increasingly tempted to create diversion

Iranians believe revolution no longer salvageable
little faith left in system founded 41 years ago

Iran’s increasing schisms result of regime’s flawed ideas
One is the inessentiality of human life
one of the most seriously pursued policies

Isolated, dysfunctional, Islamic Republic has reached dead end
regime has lost all popular support
incapable of change
Iranian people have lost hope
Iran hopeless now

Dexter Filkins is a staff writer at The New Yorker 

My comments :

I notice a commonality between all these sh_t hole countries - they do not care for human life, they do not care for human beings, they do not care for other than their own economic castes or their own kind. 

The psychiatrists and psychologists DO NOT NEED to give their views here.

These are just corrupt systems.
Not just money corruption.
Their entire system is corrupt. Fake.
Including their religions and their ideologies.

In their chicken and egg situation their chickens thought up some weird philosophy or ideology that does not work. It could be communism / socialism, religion, Dasar Ekonomi Baru or something.  Bottomline is it is NOT rational. It is based on false ideas. It does not work. You can repeat this 10 times : It does not work.

So ALL THE EGGS THAT ARE LAID ARE BAD. 

The sad thing is the amount of time needed to realise you hatch bad eggs.

How much time does it take to realise that you have burnt the toast?
One minute? Max two minutes?

How much time does it take to realise that your political ideology does not work?
41 years in Iran? How many more years? Another 20 years for Iran?
50 years in Malaysia ? How many more years for the DEB ?
Another 50 more years for Malaysia?

How much time does it take to realise that your religion is fake and does not work?
500 years? 1000 years? How much more time will it take to get rid of fake religion? 500 years? Can you make it 5 years - max?

This is the problem. So much time is wasted, so many generations are lost just because of some stupid and useless ideas that cannot be got rid of as quickly as realising you have burnt your toast.

But there are solutions. Simple, cheap, zero cost, extremely effective solutions.

(Education is NOT one of them although it does help a little. Iranians are highly educated - but it has not helped them for 41 years.)

Yes there are solutions.

How do you get rid of your non-starter economic and political ideologies or get rid of your dysfunctional and delusional religious beliefs in TWO minutes? The same amount of time that you need to realise that you have burnt your toast?

The answer : You must have free speech.

Your society must not only guarantee but if necessary it must aggressively and even use force to safeguard free speech. Meaning those who oppose free speech - in any way - should be thrown in jail. There must be laws not only guaranteeing free speech but society must criminalise any action that seeks to impede free speech.

I have said this more than once before.
It is not enough to just guarantee free speech.
Any attempt at stifling free speech must be criminalised.

You must learn to look at things from a different angle.

For example ponder this :

Jangan fikir untuk mengutip sampah. Lebih baik untuk mencari sampah.
Instead of 'collecting garbage' the focus will become clearer to 'go looking for garbage'.

It is a different way of looking at a problem to come out with a solution.

Imagine every time the Ayatollahs threaten freedom of speech they get thrown in jail.

The ayatollahs will be out of a job. 

Or they will hang from a lamppost.