If indeed it was Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s intention to destroy his creation - commonly called Umno but actually Umno Baru - he may be able to see it happen in his lifetime as it is playing out right now before all our eyes.
Instead of fresh party elections, Umno Baru was forged by Mahathir in the crucible of the original Umno elections in 1987, which was challenged in the courts and Umno declared illegal because of improper registration.
Mahathir won those elections narrowly, depending on, among others, Anwar Ibrahim and Najib Abdul Razak to face the challenge from Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and his deputy Musa Hitam. He excluded most of his opponents from the new party, effectively purging them.
The main cast in the current, evolving drama is accidental prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Umno president and possible felon Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, convicted felon and former prime minister and ex-Umno president Najib, and Umno deputy president Mohamed Hassan, better known as Tok Mat.
Failed challenger to the Umno presidency Khairy Jamaluddin, who has an outside chance of rising to the top, is among those who deserve mention. He has prudently kept his cards close to his chest.
The supporting cast could include the so-called whistleblower (only after he was removed from the Umno supreme council by Zahid) and ambassador to Indonesia, Tajuddin Abdul Rahman.
The issues are many ranging from who will be Umno president if Zahid is convicted, when GE15 will be called, the possibility of royal pardon for convicted criminals, who get to pick candidates for GE15, who will be the candidates for GE15… to whether Umno will win given the state of complete uncertainty and even chaos within the party.
In this first part, I will outline some of the latest revelations and their implications while in the second part, which will appear next week on Tuesday, I will venture hazardously to conjecture about the possibilities for the future.
Power struggle within Umno
In the last two weeks, what has become increasingly obvious is that Umno is not a single monolithic structure which uniformly wants to see cases against felons and possible felons to be dismissed and/or pardoned but disparate groups whose agendas conflict with this.
For all the talk of support that Zahid and Najib are said to enjoy within the party, the brutal truth is that if these two cannot contest in future party polls because of convictions, then the rest below them will rise to the top faster because two rungs on the ladder will be removed.
It is therefore naive to think that other leaders close to the top, such as Ismail Sabri, Tok Mat and Khairy, would allow Zahid and Najib to remain at the top and to rise to a position of massive influence respectively. It is in their interests to see them go for good.
It is unreasonable and illogical to think that Zahid and Najib can remain/return and that their cases will be terminated/withdrawn/pardoned so that they will have free passage to be the leaders/power brokers in future.
Zahid became president after Najib stepped down following his loss in the 2018 general elections. Najib holds no party positions but has positioned himself as a powerful person with his “Malu Apa Bossku” slogan, taking part in election rallies and taking joyrides on trains to preview the lines before they become operational, amongst others.
In a famous or notorious move, depending on your point of view, Zahid pushed Ismail Sabri out and pulled Najib in at a victory celebration following the Johor elections. Earlier, in his speech, Zahid said: "Although officially, Tok Mat was the election director (of Johor's state election) and Hasni (former Johor menteri besar Hasni Mohammad) its chief coordinator, the main campaign manager was Yang Berhormat Datuk Seri Mohammad Najib Tun Abdul Razak."
That was an unwarranted endorsement of Najib, which really could not be supported by facts and which would have angered, disappointed and irritated a number of big wigs, including Ismail Sabri and Tok Mat. It also meant Zahid and Najib were allying with each other.
In a show of strength among Umno delegates, Zahid and Najib convinced them to unanimously vote for a change in the Umno constitution in May which would allow party elections to be postponed until six months after the elections or up to 18 months from the end of the leadership term.
Zahid’s position secure for now
That secured Zahid’s position as president for the time being. However, there are criminal charges hanging over his head and his position may change if he is found guilty of any of them. The immediate problem for both Zahid and Najib is the criminal charges.
For Ismail Sabri then, who as PM appears to hold the decision as to when to call elections, what is in his interest is to postpone the elections as long as he can so that the ongoing resolution of criminal charges will remove or considerably reduce the influence and power of Zahid and Najib, making it more likely that he will remain PM.
Ismail was chosen as PM by Umno because he was the next ranking available person in Umno when Zahid could not be considered because of ongoing court cases. After all, you can’t have a sitting PM facing charges in court.
Actually Tok Mat, as deputy president, was the most senior but unfortunately, he is only a state assemblyperson and therefore could not be chosen as a PM which requires a person to be an elected MP under the Federal Constitution.
Ismail Sabri, little known before his ascension to becoming the PM, had secured the largest votes among candidates for the vice-presidency in the Umno 2018 elections and therefore the next most eligible person, earning him the unkind moniker of accidental PM.
However, in the event of general elections, it is entirely likely that Tok Mat will demand a parliamentary seat to improve his chances of becoming PM, becoming a threat to Ismail Sabri continuing as PM.
Some speculate that the seat could be the one that Khairy holds now - Rembau in Negeri Sembilan - as part of a move to take Khairy out of the federal arena and get him to spearhead the retaking of the state which was lost to Pakatan Harapan at GE14 in May 2018. But that is mere conjecture so far and Khairy will oppose such a move if it comes.
Tok Mat a serious contender
Khairy lost in the Umno presidential elections of 2018 but did creditably well, coming in well ahead of Razaleigh. He secured 61 electoral votes against eventual winner Zahid’s 99 and twice Razaleigh’s 30.
In terms of the popular vote, under Umno’s complicated voting system, he captured 35.3 percent against Zahid’s 42.4 percent and Razaleigh’s 22.1 percent, indicating very significant support at ground level, which far eclipsed that for Razaleigh and was close enough to Zahid’s. He cannot be discounted.
What is evident from recent events is that the much-overlooked Umno number two, deputy president Tok Mat has begun to flex his muscles. In a style favoured by some local politicians, he did this through a frank and rather illuminating and controversial interview with the foreign media.
He said in the interview: “We want to avoid a struggle for power in Umno, because once that happens, Umno is finished. That’s why we decided – I’m the one who decided – that Ismail Sabri will be the poster boy. Because he is the sitting prime minister. It doesn’t make sense if a sitting prime minister is there, but the party nominates someone else.”
He denied the headline of the article ‘Umno’s No 2 thinks Najib should go to jail’ but did clearly say: “The court is the place where you can prove whether you’re innocent or not. He didn’t prove it. He couldn’t prove it. Everybody has to pay their dues. But if we want to pardon, he (Najib) has to go through the process. He’ll have to go inside first.”
His message is very clear - Najib (and Zahid) cannot expect any help on the court and criminal charges front. A pardon can be considered but only after due process, and, importantly, time spent in jail. That could finish the political careers of both Najib and Zahid, leaving Tok Mat as a serious contender for the top post if Umno leads a coalition into power.
Tajuddin spills the beans
Meantime, let’s go to Tajuddin Abdul Rahman whose litany of alleged controversies and issues are listed here. This is the man who was appointed non-executive chairperson of public transport holding company Prasarana in May 2020.
He was subsequently removed by the finance minister for poor handling of a press conference related to a collision of public transport trains but again inexplicably chosen by PM Ismail Sabri recently to the important and sensitive position of ambassador to Indonesia.
Last month, Zahid removed Tajuddin as a nominated member of Umno’s supreme council, signalling he has power within the party and indicating to Ismail Sabri that he has. But Tajuddin unleashed a torrent of revelations about Zahid and expressed his support for Ismail Sabri.
Among other things, he charged that Zahid’s “no Anwar, no DAP” mantra was a lie and that he was personally a witness to a statutory declaration signed by Zahid in support of Pakatan Harapan leader Anwar Ibrahim for prime minister. This was clearly to paint Zahid as a political animal who will make deals with anyone.
These revelations and others were ugly, to say the least, and together with other long-simmering issues which are now brimming over the pot, represent an Umno which has not been so badly divided since the 1987 episode resulting in the formation by Mahathir of Umno Baru.
What is clear is that Umno is in shambles as its leaders start posturing aggressively and very publicly to ensure their place in the party and their political and other longevity, giving no thought to the party and the rakyat.
Will Umno survive this greedy, self-serving fight among its top leaders, or descend finally into obscurity? Will the leadership ever regain the confidence of their support base as they engage in deadly combat and destroy each other, and the party implodes?
Will, as alleged, Mahathir’s dream to destroy Umno finally materialise?- Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM, a former editor at online and print news publications, and head of equity research, is an independent writer and analyst.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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