Ex-MP echoes KJ, claims ‘green wave’ narrative incorrect

 

The great gains that Perikatan Nasional (PN) made in the last general election have often been described as the ‘green wave’, referring to a supposed “rising wave of Islamisation” in the country.

But former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming believes this narrative is not accurate – a similar sentiment expressed by former Umno minister Khairy Jamaluddin.

Ong said it is a “lazy shorthand” that is inadequate in capturing the growing electoral complexities of the country.

“The ‘green wave’ narrative is inaccurate for the following reasons. First, it ignores the significant gains made by Bersatu, from 13 parliamentary seats in GE14 to 30 seats in GE15.

“Second, it ignored the advantages which PAS enjoyed in using the PN banner for its campaign in states outside Kelantan and Terengganu.

“Third, it diverts attention from the main reason for the increase in votes for PN: a disastrous collapse in support for Umno in all states in Peninsular Malaysia, except for Negeri Sembilan and Johor.

“It was this unhappiness with Umno and specifically, the leadership of Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, that enabled PN to benefit from the groundswell of dissatisfaction,” Ong (above) said in a comment piece on FMT.

He said this is also a very “peninsular-centric” narrative, which ignores voting patterns in Sabah and Sarawak, where PN failed to make any significant gains in the last election.

This has also led to people attributing the rise in support for PN to the influence of tahfiz schools, which he said only constitute a tiny fraction of Malaysia’s overall education system.

“While the rise of religious influence over the past decades in Malaysia cannot be denied, there is far less evidence that there is a correlation between this phenomenon and political support for PAS,” Ong said.

There are dangers that come with the propagation of the ‘green wave’ narrative, he said.

The Madani government would have to counter religious sentiments by coming up with religious rhetoric and related policies of its own if the ‘green wave’ is true, he said.

Such a move will likely alienate moderate Malays who abandoned Umno but who may still return to support the party if there were a clearer direction forward.

At the same time, it will distract Pakatan Harapan from regaining support from the group, which has become disillusioned with the coalition’s attempts to wrestle back control of the federal government after the Sheraton Move.

Lastly, he said it will play into the larger Islamophobic narrative.

“This kind of sentiment is particularly unhelpful, especially when it comes to understanding the different demands of the increasingly diverse Malay community in Malaysia,” Ong said.

On the contrary, Ong proposed that the government should acknowledge that the GE15 results were part of a larger trend of “increased political competition” in the country and the collapse of support for BN and Umno.

“While it is unlikely that BN-Umno will be able to regain its dominance, they remain an important political force, especially if there is internal renewal within the party,” he said.

The ruling coalition should not assume that most of the Malay support will automatically go to PN or, on the flip side, that DAP has control of the non-Malay vote.

He stressed that the electoral landscape has become much more competitive in recent years, and while religion is important, it is not the determining voting issue.

“Politicians should emphasise policies and political messaging that appeal to the middle ground, especially among the Malay voters.

“While race and religion are still important, greater political contestation will lead to more competition in public policy ideas and better delivery of public services,” Ong said.

He added that the different electoral dynamics in East Malaysia should also be taken into account.

Khairy Jamaluddin

Last week, Khairy said the government should be worried about a “tsunami of discontent” instead of a green wave in the upcoming state polls.

While he acknowledged there is a growing religiosity among Malays, rising support for PN was not just due to growing conservatism, he said.

Khairy said since Anwar Ibrahim took power, there has been a clear lack of economic direction, continued depreciation of the ringgit, and further erosion of the people’s purchasing power due to a prolonged cost-of-living “crisis”.

“This palpable Malay anger is amplified by the perceived hypocrisy of the present administration which talks about eradicating corruption and upholding good governance but accommodates a tainted Umno leadership.

“What we may see at the state polls is less a ‘green wave’ than a ‘tsunami of discontent’,” he said. - Mkini