BN vs Pakatan: Into uncharted territory

When Malaysia goes to the polls in the next general election, it will be a journey into unchartered territory. In every election before this one, the winner was always known in advance. But in the coming general election, there are no certainties, and there may very well be a new government in place when the dust settles.

In the past, many wanted change, but few dared to vote for it. At most, they would make an almost faustian bargain, voting BN for the state election and an opposition candidate for Parliament. The electorate could not be blamed; as the opposition was disunited, even engaging in 3-cornered fights. Who would run the country if the BN was dislodged? There was no alternative. Only the people of Kelantan, would have none of it, and voted consistently for PAS year after year.

But something happened in 2008 that would change this lop-sided model for good. In most ways, the country's situation was no different from in the past. Corruption was rampant, as always. Abuse of power was the norm, as usual. The economy stuttered along.

There was of course, the Hindraf rally, and they like to take credit for being the agents of change. But they were not really so, though they did demonstrate a remarkable defiance of the authorities. The harsh treatment of those demonstrators helped part the Indian vote from the odious grip of the MIC. But only the Indian vote and to a little extent the Chinese vote.

It does not explain the Malay vote swing against the BN, which was in the double digits, and consistent across the nation. Events like the Hindraf rally would not encourage the Malay electorate to vote against the BN regime, in fact it should have had the opposite effect. There was also the Bersih rally and the numbers who took part in it showed that the people did not appreciate election rigging. But these events are not enough to explain the results of 2008.

In the end, 2008 was about providing a viable alternative to the BN. This Pakatan did and was aided by Anwar's brilliant, unifying oratory. It was rewarded with the votes of an electorate who had clearly been yearning for change. Pakatan had give the voters hope, and an alternative, and they grasped it readily.

The BN sees this now, certainly, but instead of focusing on reforming themselves, they try to destroy Pakatan by destroying PKR. And they believe they can destroy PKR by crushing Anwar. They are, of course, very wrong. The genie is out of the bottle, and it will remain free. It is no longer about individuals.

Incarcerating Anwar on such outrageous charges as they have brought against him, will only result in a further backlash against the BN. The BN relies on machiavellian manouvers and fiendish plots, when they should be focusing on the economy and good governance. They remain the same as they were 30 years ago, while the electorate has changed and moved on.

The vote in 2008 saw remarkable swings which would cast the BN state governments out of power in Kedah, Penang and Selangor, while they barely hung on in Negeri Sembilan. The BN cannot pretend to be in control of the Malay heartland any more, not when the swings against it in Kedah were in the double digits.

In Johore, which BN claims as its unbreachable citadel, the swings against the BN were also in the double digits. They were only saved by the fact that they had been winning by majorities in the tens of thousands. And Johoreans had no way of knowing what the rest of Malaysia would accomplish. But they do know, now. And in the next election, many seats will go to the opposition in Johore. It may be as many as 13 Parliament and 21 state seats. Certainly Bakri, Kluang and Segamat will become opposition seats as will Maharani, Senai, Tangkak, Penggaram, Mengkibol, Jementah, Permas and Sungai Abong, among others.

In Penang, the hapless Gerakan government was crushed. It was a poor administration in any event, run by a Chief Minister who could at best be described as incompetent. Gerakan emerged a broken party. It will not recover, though many of it's members and leaders stay put when they should be moving on, possibly to "try one more time and see-lah".

The MCA will become the Gerakan of the next election. It is a party that enjoys precious little support in the constituency it claims to represent, the Chinese electorate, and may end up with no seats at all.

When the next election is called, and it will be sooner than expected, the voters will be going into it with their eyes wide open. They now know change is possible. They know the new opposition administrations in Kedah, Penang and Selangor are working and are working better than the previous BN state governments were. This is despite the constant attacks against them by the BN, through its newspapers and through supposedly impartial federal agencies.

Umno’s information chief Ahmad Maslan, for example, cretinously suggests that the Pakatan state governments reduce the prices of goods in their states by subsidizing them. What effect would this have than to move money from the state coffers to the Federal Treasury, where the BN would promptly waste it? Isn't the better option to reduce waste and leave the subsidies alone so that all Malaysians can benefit?

Surely there are analysts in the BN who can see what's coming. It seems strange that that every move they make is a negative, thoughtless one. Instead of engaging the Chinese, Chua Soi Lek threatens them and is backed up foolishly by Najib. Instead of cutting waste, spiralling administrative costs, and corruption, the BN penalises the citizens by threatening much-needed subsidies.

The Cabinet has decided today to defer the subsidy cuts, which to any thinking Malaysian, only means that they will cut the subsidies after the elections. That of course is if they are re-elected. Umno does not rein in Utusan from constantly publishing racially divisive articles, which they could do with a single phone call. Perkasa is allowed to run free, it's connection to Umno indisputable, when they appeal only to a fringe element of the electorate. The BN seems to be it’s own worst enemy.

There may of course, be more to Umno's seemingly dual nature than meets the eye. On one side there is Najib Razak and his now mostly discredited 1Malaysia. On the other is Muhyiddin with his racially divisive statements. Some may conclude that they are playing a game, trying to win different sections of the electorate by their stands.

If that is so, then the Prime Minister and his deputy clearly have very little regard for the intelligence of Malaysians. But there may be another reason for this situation; the two may be engaged in a bitter power struggle.

On one side Muhyiddin, backed by Mahathir; on the other Najib and his allies. It would certainly explain some of Muhyiddin's statements which seem designed to lose BN the elections. Muhyiddin could then become Prime Minister, if he succeeds in cajoling PAS away from Pakatan. This may explain Umno's endless approaches to PAS. It may seem like a mad plan, but so are made-up sodomy charges, fabricated sex videos, and non-existent Christian plots.

In the midst of all this devious scheming, good governance of the country is all but forgotten. Under the BN, there seems to be no captain at the wheel. The country drifts directionless. Apathy, lethargy and incompetence, assisted by corruption and abuse of power are the order of the day. Only look at the state of the economy, of rising prices and of increasing crime. The BN is not part of the solution but it is a major part of the problem. In fact, it may very well be the entire problem.

And so, in the next elections, the BN will be punished by a people who have access to the truth at the tip of their fingertips thanks to the Internet, by an electorate that sees a viable option in Pakatan, and perhaps most of all, by citizens for whom the economic cost of voting for the Barisan Nasional has become unbearable. - Malaysia Chronicle