D-Day is dawning for the BN components, especially MCA

MCA is the second largest party in the country. It is also about to be decimated along with MIC, Gerakan and SUPP. The MCA will probably not recover and the 13th General Election will show them the door.

Since the last GE in 2008, UMNO has made no pretence of the fact that it will wrestle back all the seats lost by these parties, and to field their own candidates. Unless MCA and MIC can convince UMNO that they stand a fighting chance, UMNO will want their own choice of candidates to contest even if the candidate isn’t a Malay, like in the case of Hulu Selangor where an Indian candidate managed to unseat Zaid Ibrahim.

This is certainly one reason why UMNO seems to be ignoring the non-Malay electorate. There is another reason too - they are all out to woo PAS for a possible merger as well.

Given it past record, it may not be a surprise if PAS relents and joins UMNO after all. But only after an offer too good to be true, like 50 per cent of the political power in the country. PAS may not resist this but will UMNO actually surrender so much and will it be sincere?

The answer lies in the way UMNO currently treats its BN partners. For that alone, PAS would do well to keep the door permanently slammed in UMNO's face.

The politicking and strategy of the Najib era

For UMNO, a merger is imperative. If it happened, then the combined might of the non-Malays would still be unable to dislodge UMNO. But all of this would come at the expense of the other BN component parties. It will be a two-party system of Malays and non-Malay Opposition rule. Something like what former premier Mahathir had hinted about.

Some say it is the reason why MCA, MIC and Gerakan have not made their exit after their disastrous showing in the last GE. They want to stick around and foil the entry of PAS into BN, much to UMNO's chagrin. But this is convoluted thought and the reality is more likely to be that their leaders are loyal to the benefits and perks that come with goverment posts!

One thing though, if PAS does not relent, then the de-registration of PKR will be UMNO's last battle strategy. The face of Malaysian politics or rather UMNO politics is dirty indeed. Not only that, UMNO's strategy has been so badly thought out, it defies imagination. Their advisers seem to come from drama schools of the past, and in future years when academics review what happened during the Najib era, there is bound to be immense laughter at the circus that the party elite created in the name of savvy and sharp moves that in the end blew in their own faces.

Sodomy 2, Sex Video and Christian Conspiracy are not enough to rile the senses of the non-Malays. But as tools to rally them, with the perceived threat that they are on the verge of losing power, which will also affect Islam as the official religion, and to further beat PAS into submission, these can possibly work.

And translated into votes - UMNO stands to gain immensely. That's what the party's strategists believe anayway. Whether they are right will be seen at the ballot boxes at GE-13.

MCA

Perkasa’s latest warning to MCA and MIC to lay off the PSD-scholarships fiasco is a direct snub to the coalition partners, but it won't be long before UMNO forces to them to hand back their seats.

MCA is putting on a brave front, trying to conjure up a brave face amidst a most depressing state of affairs. Yet, one can see through the façade from the desperation in their voices.

MCA president Chua Soi Lek has failed to make an impact despite umpteen attempts to project some sense of worth and sanity into the party. His calls were rejected as mad men’s hollering.

It is a wonder how MCA managed to squander away 3 years of their time, failing to regroup and reposition themselves to address their sagging fortunes. Even at this late date, they say that they are not in a position to face an election. How shameful is that!

Granted, much of their time was wasted on internal squabbles and nasty infighting, which led to the career demise of former president Ong Tee Keat. But then Tee Keat’s departure was also engineered by BN to keep the lid on the PKFZ scandal. Is it any wonder that past stalwarts Ling and KC Chan were also charged?

Too late to cry over split milk

It is too late to cry over spilt milk now, and we believe MCA is already cleaning out their drawers and slowly checking out.

In the past MCA’s neglect of the Chinese electorate was largely due to their focus on the vast Chinese business interests in the country, which took front stage in the party. But although UMNO spinners have tried to warn that the MCA's exit will be a huge blow to the Chinese businesses in the country, this is not true. Guys like Vincent Tan, Francis Yeoh and Robert Kuok deal directly with the Umno elite. They certainly wouldn't waste time at the shabby MCA headquarters in Jalan Ampang.

As for the small and medium scale businesses, these have traditionally avoided politics. Even now, they wouldn't answer you if you asked them, will you vote BN or Pakatan? But there is one group that will surely shed tears at the MCA's parting with the BN - the underworld and the gangster syndicates involved in the lucratve business empires of drugs, prostitution and money laundering. It is no secret they have penetrated the MCA and pay the "bonuses" of some of the party's leaders.

Soi Lek, Tsu Koon and Palanivel are all walking on a tightrope. Constantly having to balance themselves to keep from falling, their future seems bleak. The 13th GE will see a lot of casualties with a widely reduced representation for the BN components. The non-Malay voters will however not be unrepresented. Representation is just not at the BN, but at the new parties that they have placed their trust in - DAP, PKR and PAS.

At the moment, BN is expected to win this election with a reduced majority. But it is really up to the people and full-scale tsunami is very possible.

There is not much MCA and MIC can do but to concentrate on their safe seats, while giving up - albeit involuntarily - their unsafe seats to Big Brother UMNO. The only other solution is to abandon the coalition.

To UMNO, this is a serious mutiny but what has UMNO done for MCA but to force them into sure defeat with all their racial and religious politicking. Worse still, a lot of it was just so that they can take back seats from their BN partners. So actually, the only stupid party will be the MCA if it stays. It will then be truly an "abused wife".

Divorce while Malaysia can still be saved

Up till now, every party in BN - except for UMNO - has tried to tone down and kept the peace and harmony from disintegrating. But it won’t be long, before a big flare-up occurs because sentiments are headed towards a long overdue boiling point.

The components have all fallen into UMNO's devious trap. Not only is the party run by Prime Minister Najib Razak and former premier Mahathir Mohamad using all ways and means to 'kill' off Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Rakyat, they are doing the same to their own BN partners - in particular, MCA, MIC and Gerakan.

Of the three, MIC has fared the best because G Palanivel is more pliable than Samy Vellu, the past president. Gerakan also gets hit but less than MCA which may be why its president Koh Tsu Koon is ever eager to hide behind the skirts of the Prime Minister's Department where he is an appointed Minister.

But of all three, MCA is the richest and has the most to lose. It knows 'checkmate' is here. There is only one path to take and that is to leave.

By staying, all the billions of ringgit of wealth it has accumulated through the decades for the community will be wasted away, and soon, most probably find its way over to the UMNO coffers. Members should demand that the party leaves such an ungrateful and venomous boss like the UMNO. They need only to look at Ling Liong Sik and KC Chan to know that it is UMNO which is betraying them.

Within the party, the so-called running dogs will be the current president and even his deputy. Both men have vowed to remain in the BN through thick and thin. But what actually is the BN? Isn't just a framework? In the old days, people too had silly thoughts about divorce - the children will suffer, they lament.

Divorce is never good but if the husband is such a no-good heel, then leave for your own sanity. The children of today live in a well-educated and well-connected world, and they will suffer more if they see their mother continually abused by the father.

So what say you, Chua Soi Lek and Liow Tiong Lai? Don't pass off the rising demands from the community for a divorce as mere propaganda instigated by the Opposition.

Search your conscience and report honestly to the community and party members. Don't make decisions or grandiose statements to benefit yourselves. False harmony won't last long. Your enemies from within BN are waiting to stab you again from behind. Look at Liong Sik and Kong Choy, see what UMNO did to them?

Banana country

At the moment, other than UMNO, the rest of BN coalition is seen as not doing enough to ensure a victory. They should ask themselves why and is it true? They don't really need to worry about the Opposition. Perkasa and Pembela are already poised and ready to fire the next salvo - no need for Anwar, Guan Eng or Hadi to do much actually. After that, it will be the people's turn - at the ballot boxes.

It is certain a stronger Opposition will ensure some sort of sanity and stability in our political landscape. Again, UMNO spinners say it will not benefit the country in the long run. They obviously have not heard of the Unted States, UK, Australia, Canada, Japan and so on, where multi-party systems exist and have existed for centuries.

Or are the UMNO elite insisting that Malaysia's economy is greater than in these countries? Judge for yourselves - do the people here enjoy a higher and more gracious lifestyle? Is corruption lesser, per capita income greater?

It is really up to the people to make the change. But it is time that the populace and the BN components take due note that with the current UMNO leadership, Malaysia is truly on the cusp of becoming a banana country.

When this happen, BN parties and their leaders will also become banana parties and banana leaders if they don't make a stand now and leave while the country is still 'saveable'. - Malaysia Chronicle