Will Parliament be dissolved on Monday?

There is talk that come Monday, October 10, Parliament may be dissolved and snap general elections called.

Such a move would follow Prime Minister Najib Razak's tabling of the Budget 2012, a spending plan that many say will be designed to prime the electorate into keeping his BN coalition in power. And of course, to give the much needed public mandate to Najib himself to continue as the country's 6th premier.

Frankly, the guessing game about the timing of the 13th general elction has been red-hot since the start of this year. Many had expected March, July, November and even March 2012. But although the tide may currently be on the side of those who predicted March next year, there is still heavy expectation that Najib will go for the kill inext month.

If this is indeed so, then he 'must' dissolve Parliament by Monday. Of course, he can do it after tabling the budget this afternoon or even over the weekend, but many politicians say it is Monday if GE-13 is to be in November.

Why Monday

The reasons are simple, if Najib didn't dissolve Parliament by then, the Budget 2012 would have to be debated on Monday itself, which would be a waste of time with election just a month ahead.

Secondly, why risk the opposition poking all sorts of holes into his grand plan which will surely be praised to the skies by the country's mainstream media, radio and TV networks, which are all government-controlled.

Yes, such a move allows the BN to push through ‘sweeteners’ while leaving the Pakatan Rakyat parliamentarians less time to find areas of contention. It is a quick means to shut out public scrutiny. And when the Budget is later re-tabled, provided of course the BN wins, Najib can always find ways to 'gracefully' climb down from his grandoise promises!

Two camps

Within Umno, it has become so obvious there are two camps that even the staunchest supporter can no longer deny the split. Najib's camp wants early snap polls before the party's annual assembly in December to ward off an attempt to make him announce a succession plan in favour of his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin.

Obviously Muhyiddin, and more significantly Mahathir Mohamad, the influential former premier, want GE-13 next year.They are worried Najib's personal scandals will weaken the BN's chances and want to go into GE-13 with the questionmark over his lacklustre leadership fully resolved, so that the people can feel comfortable voting the BN once again.

Yes, GE-13 will be very much determined by the coming Umno general assembly. There are many ominous signs of warlordism taking precedence and the clamoring for the Umno supreme council to name a successor is growing. Much like how Abdullah Badawi was treated in 2008.

This has been the rationale put forward by the November GE-13 forecasters. They are betting Najib will try to forestall the Umno intrigue by getting his own mandate, and should he be able to maintain the status quo or even wrest Selangor back from the Pakatan, then he would have guaranteed himself another term.

And in Najib's second term, he and wife Rosmah Mansor won't be wearing kids' gloves anymore. And this is something Mahathir and Muhyiddin would be wise to take note of.

The Anwar factor

There is also the issue of Anwar Ibrahim, who is currently entangled in Sodomy II prosecution. The trial is on-going and by calling snap elections now, Anwar will find it tough to whole-heartedly campaign.

This would be another plus in Najib’s game plan, where he wants to remove Anwar permanently from the political landscape and win brownie points from the Umno warlords who do not want Pakatan Rakyat hanging around and interfering in their business schemes.

Dissolving Parliament right after tabling the budget could also be a case of ‘lets get it done and over with’. Swayed by the his own positive public relations and secure in the delusion that rural Malaysia might still vote BN come what may, Najib maight just press the button on November.

Mahathir is still the linchpin

However, given the latest signs which have grown stronger after the unveiling of the Pakatan's Prosperity For Allalternative Budget 2012, chances are much slimmer now for a GE this years. It will not be easy for Najib, who is also Finance minister, to trump the Pakatan's plan and he is expected to copy extensively from it.

With the recent Bukit Kepong incident and even the hudud law issue boomeranging, as Malaysians see through the stale scaremongering tactics, it is now much more likely that Najib will defer to Mahathir as he has always done and postpone his election plans.

Even so, for the final confirmation and until Najib himself denies GE-13 will be this year, all eyes will be on him after he unveils Budget 2012 today. And if he keeps mum, then Monday will tell for sure when GE-13 will be.

Of course, this will then lead to the 2012 guessing game, and by the way, GE13 does not neccessarily have to be in March/April 2012!

Malaysia Chronicle