The Shadow Games: Umno power-struggle?

The whole atmosphere in Umno is extremely venomous and Najib may be asked to step down after the general election unless BN can regain its 2/3 majority.

COMMENT

Just when everyone was thinking that the political activity has gone down a notch or two during this end of the year holiday season, word is going around that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak may be forced to hold the 13th general election before the Water Snake Chinese Lunar New Year which begins on Feb 10.

No one knows exactly what is going on in Umno because there is much cloak-and-dagger stuff in their wheeling and dealing.

However, if this talk is true, then the polls will have to be held only in early February as January does not favour BN because it is a very busy month due to it being the first month of the new school year and the teachers who are members of political parties will have no time to hit the campaign trail.

Therefore only the first weekend of February is available. Be that as it may, polls within the first three months after the Chinese Lunar New Year may lessen the Chinese votes because the Chinese who are working in Singapore (and there are many of them) will only utilise their leave for returning to their hometown during the two-week Chinese Lunar New Year period. Therefore this strategy can serve to lessen Chinese participation in the general election.

Now back to the goings-on in Umno. There is no reason to believe that PM Najib wants to hold the general election before the Chinese Lunar New Year.

This is because his brainchild, BR1M will only get going on Jan 15 and the payout is scheduled to go on until March 15. This time there are more applicants (youths, singletons and households whose income is below RM3,000) who will be getting the cash aid.

If the 13th general election is held before the payout is completed, then the rakyat will suspect that something is amiss. So although there are some in Umno who are impatient for the general election to be held fast, PM Najib will want to stand his ground and hold the polls in late March after all the BR1M recipients have received their cash aid although it cannot be denied that he is under pressure now.

It is also common knowledge that Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has gone on a nationwide tour to meet all the Umno state liaison chiefs to see that everything is in order and to ensure that Umno’s campaign machinery is in tip-top condition to face their greatest election battle of all time.

Muhyiddin’s nationwide tour is done under the instruction of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and this shows that Mahathir still has immense influence in Umno. Is Mahathir the one actually running the show in Umno?

Najib in a precarious position

From all counts, the situation shows that there is a power-struggle going on in Umno and the general accepted belief by all and sundry is that PM Najib may be asked to step down after the 13th general election unless BN can regain the two thirds majority in Parliament and recapture all the Pakatan Rakyat (PR)-held states.

With all the Umno warlords aligned to one faction or other, the whole atmosphere in Umno is extremely venomous, the coming Water Snake year notwithstanding.

No one knows who is really a friend or foe. But Najib is the one who seems to be in a precarious position. Still, he will not give up without putting up a tough fight. Again, all his problems are caused by his delay in holding the polls and his delay must have irked the decisive Mahathir.

Nevertheless, Mahathir is a shrewd politician. He will not want to rock the boat too much before the polls are held as the effects will be detrimental to Umno. This is because the fence-sitters will opt for Pakatan if Umno is in disarray.

Therefore Najib will still be leading the nation into the 13th general election but there will be no surprises if Parliament is dissolved in January for early February polls as BN is already prepared.

If that happens, then BN leaders will give some reason for doing the polls during the BR1M payout. Those recipients of BR1M in the rural areas can be expected to swallow BN’s excuse hook, line and sinker but the urban folk may not be that gullible.

It will be interesting to see if Najib is willing to take a gamble and go for early polls instead of having it in March during the one-week school holiday. Moreover March 2013 is considered the full five-year term and there is no harm in going for it as he has also said previously that he will do the full term.

Knowing Najib’s style of wanting to be 100% sure before he does anything important, it means that if the polls are held before the end of March, then he has caved-in to pressure from forces within his own party.

And this will mean that Najib has lost control of his party and it also means that it is the same person who is still in control for more than three decades now.

This is the sad and sorry state of the Malaysian political scenario. Will this situation be changed?

Selena Tay is a FMT columnist.