COME ON, he can't even transform Umno or Rosmah! Najib needs to transform BN

WHEN Pakatan Rakyat managed to deny Barisan Nasional its traditional two-thirds majority in 2008, many wondered if it was just a fluke. As the saying goes, one swallow does not a summer make. Well, it's now two elections in a row where BN's two-thirds majority has been denied. It's pretty obvious that the two-party system is here to stay.

With PR winning a few more federal seats than the last outing, as well as making inroads into traditional BN states like Pahang and Johor, it's clear that life will never be easy for BN again. It's just going to get harder. Is there any doubt that GE14 will be an even tougher battle?

Although Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had attributed BN's relatively poor showing to the "Chinese tsunami", more than a few political observers have pointed out that this could not have happened without the other races supporting PR as well.

According to the Election Commission, BN lost the popular vote at both the federal and state levels. For federal seats, BN got 5,237,699 votes compared to PR's 5,623,984. For state seats, BN got 4,513,997 votes compared to PR's 4,879,699.

Given that the Chinese are a minority, making up about 30% of the population, it's not possible for PR to have won the popular vote at both the federal and state levels without the support of other communities, most notably the Malays, who are the dominant race in this country.

This is not to say that the Chinese did not swing heavily towards the opposition. They did. But the real divide, many analysts say, is not racial in nature but one involving a whole range of factors including geography, age, income level, and even internet connectivity.

Merdeka Center, an independent polling agency, had conducted a survey before the election that found that rural respondents were more likely to vote BN while urban ones, PR. It also found that older respondents preferred BN while younger ones, PR. Lower-income people were inclined towards BN while higher income earners, PR. And those without internet access tended to favour BN while the connected ones, PR.

If the survey is correct, such findings should be a real cause for concern to Najib. In a nutshell, Merdeka Center found that those who favoured BN tended to be rural, old, poor and without internet access. This is hardly an enviable target market. Why? Because it's a sunset demographic.

Rural areas over time will become urbanised. Older people will eventually pass on. The country as a whole will become richer. And internet penetration is increasing by the day. In other words, as Malaysia moves towards developed nation status, BN's traditional demographic will transform into PR's target market.

So, while it's important for Najib to figure out why the Chinese have swung so heavily away from BN, it's probably more crucial for him to understand why the urban, young, rich and connected are inclined to do the same.

Najib's done well enough to earn BN another five-year run. If he wants BN's tenure to extend any further than that though, the kind of transformation he will have to achieve in his second term is not just in relation to the economy or the government but the very coalition that he heads. He needs to transform BN itself.

For a start, there needs to be a concerted move away from race-based politics. With Gerakan and MCA in tatters and MIC hardly much better, perhaps it's an opportunity for Najib to boldly suggest that the "M" in Umno be changed to "Malaysian" and invite his coalition partners to join a more inclusive Umno.

Imagine how disruptive that would be. Such a move would be far harder for his critics to dismiss than the vague and ambiguous 1Malaysia slogan. There will be resistance aplenty within his own party. And I'm sure he is fully aware of what happened to Onn Jaafar for daring to suggest the "M" in Umno to be changed to "Malayan". But that was over 60 years ago. The times have changed. Malaysians have changed. Can BN afford to stay the same?

Oon Yeoh is a new media consultant. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com