In the aftermath of May 5th (part 2)

Umno has still not recovered from this shock and even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is pissed big time. He is blaming Najib for wasting his time and the government’s resources in trying to woo back the Chinese when that time and money could have been better spent in the rural areas where the Malays are the majority.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

In part 1 of this series I said, “Luckily Najib Tun Razak is the Prime Minister. If I were the Prime Minister I would send my people in there with a bomb to create havoc and make sure that some people die. Then there would have been a lot of anger against Pakatan Rakyat for its poor security. Furthermore, I can then declare an emergency and suspend Parliament and the State Assemblies. And once I rule by martial law I can make changes that only a two-thirds majority in Parliament can.”

Okay, what would I do if I were Anwar Ibrahim, the Opposition Leader, instead?

Well, then for sure I would arrange for my agent provocateurs to plant a small explosive device at the far end of the stadium, farthest from the stage where I would be sitting. This explosive device is meant to take just a few lives and create a reasonable amount of injury, plus trigger a panic followed by a stampede (which will take more lives than the explosive device itself).

No doubt some lives would be lost but then this is what politics is all about -- collateral damage. After all, if the ballot does not work -- as Sunday, 5th May 2013 has proven -- then you need to choose the bullet over the ballot. So in that sense Anwar is a more decent person than I am. If I wanted federal power as desperately as Anwar does then I would allow the ends to justify the means.

I mean when the Germans advanced on Leningrad during World War II, Stalin ordered a scorched-earth policy to defeat the Germans, as they did about 130 years earlier to defeat the French. He allowed hunger and the cold to weaken the Germans and with a scorched-earth policy the Germans would be denied food and shelter.

The downside to this, of course, would be that Russian civilians would also die and about 12 million of the 20 million deaths were non-combatants. However, in the bigger scheme of things, civilian loses are unavoidable. This is what the fight for power is all about, sacrificing pawns in the game of thrones.

If something untoward did happen in the Kelana Jaya Stadium last night everyone would blame Umno and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. No one would dream that it was an ‘inside job’. Even more sympathy for Pakatan Rakyat would be gained plus the people would rise in anger and bring down the government. Was not Suharto and Marcos brought down only once people died? And Marcos and Suharto were far more powerful and stronger than Najib is.

I suppose that is why it is dangerous to allow me to become a politician. I am too devious and merciless and would not allow anything to stand in my way of reaching the top. Luckily Anwar is not as cold-blooded as I am. That is one thing Malaysia has to be thankful for.

On another note, the Team Khalid versus Team Azmin tussle for power is causing a stalemate in Selangor. PAS and DAP want Khalid as they can work with him better than they can with Azmin. The PKR Supreme Council, however, is in support of Azmin. To complicate matters further, Anwar supports Azmin while Anwar’s wife and daughter support Khalid.

Umno is watching this crisis with great interest and anxiety. Umno too wants Khalid because they feel that Khalid is the weaker of the two while Azmin is just too sharp for his own good. With Khalid at the helm, Umno has a better chance of capturing Selangor in the next election than with Azmin in charge.

Azmin may not have the administrative skills that Khalid has but Azmin is a far better politician and he will know how to retain Selangor in the next general election four or five years from now. (Azmin is as ruthless as I am and he too would be comfortable with collateral damage. So in that sense I admire his guts as a politician although I dislike him as a person).

Azmin has Anwar over a barrel. If Anwar chooses Khalid then he would be going against his own party’s Supreme Council and there would be the added danger of Azmin leaving with at least 11 or even 15 of his supporters. And that is the second reason why Umno wants Khalid rather than Azmin as the Menteri Besar.

Note that most of the candidates in the recent general election are Azmin’s people and handpicked by him. Hence they are loyal to him and would follow him if he were to leave the party and become an ‘independent’.

Umno knows that its survival depends on the Malays and Indians (plus the natives of East Malaysia). In the recent general election, more than 90% of the Chinese voted for Pakatan Rakyat, mainly DAP. In some saluran, 100% of the Chinese voted opposition. Not a single Chinese vote went to Barisan Nasional.

This has shocked Umno. They knew that the Chinese would not vote Barisan Nasional but they did not expect it to be this bad. They thought they could get at least 10-15% of the Chinese vote. They did not think that the Chinese vote for Pakatan Rakyat would be in the high 90s and in some places 100%.

Umno has still not recovered from this shock and even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is pissed big time. He is blaming Najib for wasting his time and the government’s resources in trying to woo back the Chinese when that time and money could have been better spent in the rural areas where the Malays are the majority.

There are about 50 or so of the 222 parliamentary seats that are Chinese majority. Another 57 of the seats are in West Malaysia, some of them Chinese majority seats as well (so there is some overlap here).

Hence Umno has to make sure that a minimum of 95 of the 120 Malay majority seats plus at least 45 of the East Malaysian seats are retained. Then Umno can afford to write-off the Chinese totally.

Ideally they should increase the parliamentary seats by another 10 or 15, mainly in the rural areas plus in East Malaysia. This would ensure that Barisan Nasional would be able to retain power in 2018 even if Pakatan Rakyat increases it share of the popular vote to 55%. Then Barisan Nasional can still be in power even with just 45% of the popular vote.

But to do this they need a two-thirds majority in Parliament and they are hoping that Azmin and his gang will cross over to give them the two-thirds that they need to increase the number of seats in favour of Barisan Nasional. And for both those reasons Umno is hoping that Khalid gets the job of Selangor Menteri Besar.

I just love Malaysian politics.

TO BE CONTINUED