In the aftermath of May 5th (part 3)

What Najib did not suspect was that some other Barisan Nasional leaders from Sabah and Sarawak wanted to follow Lajim Ukin and Wilfred Bumburing when they crossed over. However, Anwar told them to stay put in Barisan Nasional and contest the general election under the ruling party banner and then cross over after the general election.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

You may love Anwar Ibrahim or you may hate him. But one thing you must not do is to underestimate him. That would be a big mistake if you were a ‘struggling’ Prime Minister like Najib Tun Razak.

Anwar knew that if Najib could not do better than Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the March 2008 general election then Najib would be in deep shit. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would cut off his balls and nail it to the wall. (And Dr Mahathir is sharpening his knife even as you read this).

So that was Anwar’s first aim. Even if you cannot take over the government just make sure that Najib does not get more than 140 parliamentary seats. And Najib did not do better than what Pak Lah did in March 2008. In fact, he did worse -- he won seven parliamentary seats less than in 2008.

So now Najib is facing so much internal problems with Dr Mahathir breathing down his neck he no longer has any time or energy to worry about Anwar or about what Anwar is up to.

And that works fine for Anwar as far as he is concerned. He can now distract Najib even further with his road shows that started last night in Kelana Jaya -- which means Najib now has two major battles to fight.

Do you think Anwar can walk in to Putrajaya by organising rallies and road shows? Do you think the Election Commission will call for fresh elections just because Anwar says they must?

If you believe that then you are sillier than I first thought. The Election Commission has just told Anwar to go screw himself. But that is not a problem because that is not Anwar’s real game plan. His real game plan is to ‘steal’ the government through crossovers -- just like Barisan Nasional ‘stole’ it through election fraud.

What Najib did not suspect was that some other Barisan Nasional leaders from Sabah and Sarawak wanted to follow Lajim Ukin and Wilfred Bumburing when they crossed over. However, Anwar told them to stay put in Barisan Nasional and contest the general election under the ruling party banner and then cross over after the general election.

Many may have been puzzled as to why Pakatan Rakyat created such a mess in Sabah and Sarawak. Even a political novice knows that you need Sabah and Sarawak to march in to Putrajaya since these two East Malaysian states control 25% of the seats in parliament.

Sabah and Sarawak will always control 25% of the seats even if they have only 10% of the nation’s population. That is what was decided in the Malaysian Agreement. (Hence the one-man-one-vote system cannot work in Malaysia because then Sabah and Sarawak can never have 25% of the seats in parliament).

Anyway, Anwar is not as stupid as you may think. It may appear like he messed up in Sabah and Sarawak. Actually he was not interested to win Sabah and Sarawak through the ballot box because he knew that would be very difficult to do and you would be wasting a lot of time and money while achieving very little.

Hence he just made a token effort in Sabah and Sarawak and did not worry too much about how many seats he would win. After all, he was not going to win that many anyway, other than the ones that DAP won in the predominantly Chinese constituencies.

Of course he wanted Sabah and Sarawak. But he wanted them not through the elections. He wanted them after the elections once he knows how many seats he can win in West Malaysia and how more seats he needs to be able to form the federal government.

So now, while the entire nation is focusing on the rallies that are going to be organised all over the country, Anwar is secretly negotiating with the Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak.

Pakatan Rakyat needs at least 23 more parliamentary seats to form the federal government. 25 would be better. Then Pakatan Rakyat would have six more seats than Barisan Nasional.

Anwar’s ‘war room’ masterminds are Dr Rahim Ghouse, Saifuddin Nasution, Johari Abdul and Azmin Ali. These are the people hatching all the plots and planning the strategies. They were also the masterminds behind theFree Anwar Campaign, which I headed from 2000 to 2004. So I have personally worked with them since more than ten years ago and I know how they do things and what makes them tick.

So all of you who wish to scream and shout in the stadium rallies please continue to do so. I know it is great fun because we too used to do all this back in the old days. But do not expect anything great from that other than just having a good time.

Those rallies are not going to allow Anwar to walk in to Putrajaya because no new elections are going to be called. Even the Election Petitions are not going to achieve much unless you have strong evidence of fraud -- and you do not.

All the ‘evidence’ of election fraud is mere hearsay and rumours. There were no extra ballot boxes. Hell, there were no blackouts as well. So how do you win your court cases based purely on gut feel?

Sabah and Sarawak know they are now the Kingmakers. If they stay with Barisan Nasional then Anwar is screwed. If they jump then Najib is screwed. But before they make the decision whether to stay or to jump, they want to know what’s in it for them.

Can they get extra federal cabinet posts? One Deputy Prime Minister’s post maybe? Can they see an increase in oil royalty from 5% to 20%? Can they get more autonomy like what the 18- and 20-Point Agreements promised them?

So the horse-trading is now going on. Anwar is making his offers and Najib will have to counter-offer something better. So we may yet see Anwar become the new Prime Minister if Najib cannot better Anwar’s offer and the Members of Parliament from Sabah and Sarawak cross over.

In the meantime, while all this is going on, Najib has Dr Mahathir to worry about while Anwar has to try to pacify Azmin to make sure he does not jump if he is not made the Menteri Besar of Selangor. If not then Anwar might as well abandon the negotiations because the crossovers from Sabah and Sarawak will be neutralised by Azmin and gang once they declare themselves ‘independents’.

Sigh….and you want me to enter politics? You must be crazy! Why would I want to suffer all this aggravation and anxiety? 

TO BE CONTINUED