Mahathir plays ‘chess’ in Umno politics

The grand old man is slowly but surely making masterly Kasparov-like moves in Umno politics for the future of his son, Mukhriz

COMMENT

While Umno leaders may paint a rosy picture over the upcoming party polls, the entry of Kedah menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir into the vice presidential race has caused ripples in the power structure of the largest Malay party in Malaysia.

A win by Mukhriz would trigger former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad to push forward his following agenda; making Mukhriz the next deputy prime minister.

Having foresight, the 88-year old Mahathir knows that time is of essence and without his support; Mukhriz does not stand a chance to place himself at the coveted seat.

So after Mukhriz’s win, the ex-premier may throw his weight behind Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to take on Najib in the next Umno election, due in 2016.

Getting rid of prime ministers is never a problem for Mahathir. He not only had roles in ousting three premiers in the past, he also got rid of three deputy prime ministers during his reign.

And Mahathir’s condition to Muhyiddin would be simple; on being the prime minister, appoint Mukhriz as his deputy.

Once Muhyiddin ascends to power, he may have to call for snap general election. An early election will pave way for Mukhriz to contest and clinch a parliamentary seat in order to tread back into the Cabinet.

Thereafter, Muhyiddin would appoint Mukhriz as his new deputy, which can further facilitate the Muhyiddin-Mahathir combo in ensuring Mukhriz getting a smooth ride to win the Umno deputy presidency.

While Muhyiddin and Mukhriz stand to benefit from the deal, Najib is set to become a major sacrificial pawn in Mahathir’s power play. But Najib is not the only one.

Umno’s vice presidents, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Hishammuddin Hussein may also end up being collateral damage in Umno’s power imbroglio.

Zahid won the most votes in the race for vice presidency in the last Umno polls. That puts him as a favourite to be the next deputy prime minister. But Zahid is not in the good books of Mahathir.

Najib, the pawn

Mahathir still views Zahid as a loyalist of his arch nemesis, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.

The same goes for Hishammuddin, the son of his former boss, Hussein Onn; who was once ousted by Mahathir himself in the past.

Regardless of Mukhriz’s entry, Hishammuddin may not survive the vice presidential’ race in the coming Umno polls.

Being the weakest of the three, the defence minister may see himself getting knocked out as other competitors such as Ali Rustam and Isa Samad are seen to have more grassroots support than him.

As for the other Umno vice president, Shafie Apdal, he may be successful in defending his post and as he is also not seen as a threat by Mahathir.

Although he does face some resistance within the Sabah Umno circle, Shafie may harness their support anyway due to sentiments that he is the only East Malaysian in that position.

With so much brewing, will Najib intervene and ensure that Mukhriz does not rattle the power structure in Umno?

The likelihood is low!

While Najib is aware that his position may come under threat, he would not risk incurring Mahathir’s wrath by sabotaging Mukhriz.

Being a Mahathir loyalist himself, Najib knows very well what would happen if he steps on Mahathir’s toes. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is a living testimony to that.

G Vinod is a FMT team member.