It comes in threes

Khalid Ibrahim's fate hangs on a limb, but...

By Roslan Bistamam

Two crucial events will happen tomorrow and a third is likely.

Those who follow the news are already anticipating a decision on the Malay and Iban Bibles and a decision on the two policemen charged with the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu.

The third event has to do with the future of Abdul Khalid Ibrahim as Selangor Menteri Besar.

But it is not just Khalid’s fate that is hanging on a limb. The fate of Pakatan Rakyat, specifically PAS’ membership in it, is tied to Khalid’s fate like Siamese twins joined at the belly.

PKR and DAP appear quite united against Khalid. Even people like Hannah Yeoh and Elizabeth Wong, whom Khalid supported, have turned on him, said an insider. 

But the issue of PAS is more complicated.

PAS is divided between the pro-Anwar Ibrahim and pro-Hadi Awang factions. The pro-Anwar figures, such as Dzulkefly Ahmad, Hatta Ramli, Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi and Khalid Samad, want Khalid out. The Hadi faction wants Khalid to serve out his full term.

The only problem is the pro-Anwar faction does not have any vote in the Selangor State Legislative Assembly while the pro-Hadi faction does. Hence, if push comes to shove, the Hadi faction is going to win hands down.

If they do decide to push for a vote of no confidence in the Selangor State Legislative Assembly and PAS does not side with PKR and DAP, while Barisan Nasional abstains, Pakatan will be short of a simple majority by one or two votes. And this would cause a serious rift between PKR-DAP and PAS.

Worse still, the Hadi faction would be giving the pro-Anwar faction a slap in the face. Not only will Pakatan  be split, so will PAS.

The fact that no one from PKR visited Hadi when he was in hospital in Turkey for three weeks while DAP sent only one “official representative” – Nga Kor Ming of Perak – has not gone unnoticed. In fact, the Hadi faction has found cause to mention this with a bitter taste in the mouth, considering that Hadi’s condition was quite serious.

Hence, if Pakatan — meaning PKR and DAP — does make its move on Khalid, what is at stake is not just the menteri besar’s future but also the relationship between PAS and those two Pakatan partners as well as the relationship between the two PAS factions.

Finally, however, Khalid will still have the upper hand. If they make their move on him, he can always resign and ask the Sultan to find a replacement, who will most likely be from PAS, or he can request the dissolution of the state assembly to make way for fresh state elections.

Either way, Anwar would not be able to place his man — or woman — in the Selangor menteri besar’s seat.

Pakatan has chosen tomorrow to make its move because the Sultan is overseas and Hadi is on medical leave. The coast is clear, or so DAP and PKR think.

Maybe this time, Anwar  has finally made the miscalculation that will effectively hand Selangor back to Barisan Nasional.

Roslan Bistamam is a FMT columnist