GE14: The Day Umno Is Supposed To Die

There is a lesson to be learned here. And that is never wound a ferocious animal. Either you kill it or you leave it alone. A wounded animal is dangerous. If you wound it then it will come back to hunt you. Pakatan wounded Umno and Barisan Nasional in 2008. They were supposed to have finished that job in 2013 but did not. And then in 2014 they trained their attacks on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. And they wounded but did not kill him in 2015. And now Pakatan will have to face that wrath of Najib, Umno and Barisan Nasional.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Today there is a lot of talk in the media about how a 10-15% vote swing is going to see Pakatan Harapan come to power in Terengganu and Kelantan and Malaysia is going to see a new federal government and so on. In short, GE14, around 2018 or so, is going to see the death of Umno and Barisan Nasional.

Umno was formed one year after WWII in 1946. Five years later, Umno President Onn Jaafar left the party to form Parti Kemerdekaan Malaya (IMP). That party did not get support so Onn closed it down and formed a new party called Parti Negara. Parti Negara failed to win even one seat in the 1955 elections.

In the 1959 elections four years later, Parti Negara formed a coalition with PAS. Parti Negara won four state seats and one parliament seat in Terengganu (not in Johor although Onn is from Johor and used to be the Johor Menteri Besar) while PAS won 12 seats with seven seats going to the Alliance Party (Parti Perikatan). That opposition coalition lasted only two years after which the state fell to the Alliance Party due to cross-overs.

That was the first split in Umno that was supposed to see the end of the party but which did not. And the split was because Onn wanted to open Umno to the non-Malays while the rest of the party did not.

These are the enemies of the Malays, Umno and Barisan Nasional who need to be wiped out for good

Then came the second split in Umno 37 years later in 1988. In the 1990 general election, Umno and Barisan Nasional faced three opposition coalitions. One between Semangat 46 and PAS on the East Coast. Another between Semangat 46 and DAP on the West Coast. And, in Sabah, Semangat 46 had a coalition with PBS.

They managed to capture Kelantan but made no impact in the other states. They did, however, manage to reduce Umno’s parliament seats from 83 to 71 while Barisan Nasional’s seats got reduced from 148 to 127. Basically these seats were won by Semangat 46.

And what was the factor that helped Semangat 46 win those seats? It was a hate campaign against Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Those who voted against Umno and Barisan Nasional are those who hated Mahathir and felt he had cheated in the 1987 party election and is an Indian who is a traitor to the Malay race and so on.

The Semangat 46 ‘success’ was based on a hate campaign against the Prime Minister and the race card. It was about Malay nationalism or Ketuanan Melayu. The Semangat 46 war-cry was to restore the original 1946 struggle of the Umno Malays when they opposed the Malayan Union that was set up by the British colonial masters.

Tengku Razaleigh knows Umno cannot be killed, which is why he returned to Umno after eight years of trying

Semangat 46 — even in three separate coalitions with PAS, DAP and PBS — failed to oust Umno and Barisan Nasional other than just in Kelantan. Even then Kelantan was already a PAS state anyway, which Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah took away in 1978 and then gave back to PAS 12 years later.

In 1996, Tengku Razaleigh gave up and closed down Semangat 46 and returned to Umno. For the second time Umno and Barisan Nasional survived an internal struggle.

The third Umno split came in 1999 and this time it appeared more serious than the first split in 1951 and the second one in 1988. Furthermore, this time it was not three separate opposition coalitions like in 1990 but one opposition coalition of four parties (PAS, PKR, DAP and PRM), the first time in history this was happening. And again, just like in 1990, the 1999 general election was a hate campaign. If you hate Mahathir then vote opposition.

Tok Guru Nik Aziz said Umno is not the enemy and if they can accept Islam then PAS can be closed down and everyone join Umno

Nevertheless, in spite of the opposition success, Umno and Barisan Nasional still retained power.

Then, in 2006, Umno again split — for the fourth time. This fourth split was not a hate-Mahathir campaign but a hate-Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi campaign. And this time it was not an alliance against Mahathir but an alliance led by Mahathir. And the 2008 general election showed how successful this hate-Pak Lah alliance was.

In 2008 the foundation had been set. In the next general election in 2013, Umno and Barisan Nasional were going to get kicked out and Pakatan Rakyat were going to form the next federal government. On top of that, six or seven states were going to fall.

But it did not happen. The 2013 general election was supposed to be the closing chapter for Umno and Barisan Nasional. They did get a beating, of course, but they did not fall. And then the window finally closed for good.

As far as Najib is concerned it is a fight to the death: the death of Mahathir, DAP and Pakatan

That was it. The 2013 general election should have been the time for Umno and Barisan Nasional to fall if they could have fallen. But they did not fall. So that means they cannot fall. The window opened in 2008 and closed in 2013. There is no longer any window of opportunity to oust Umno and Barisan Nasional. Since 2013 Pakatan has been committing hara kiri.

The opposition was as its strongest from 2006 to 2013. And even Umno and Barisan Nasional admit that the social media played a big role in that. If Umno and Barisan Nasional could be ousted it can only happen between 2006 and 2013. In the 2008 general election the window opened and in the 2013 general election it closed. It is going to take a long time before that window opens again.

In 2008 Pakatan won 82 parliament seats and five states. In 2013 it won 87 parliament seats and three states. In the 2018 general election or GE14, Pakatan would be lucky if it can retain Selangor and Penang and win 70 parliament seats.

For Pakatan to lose Penang and Selangor is not impossible although difficult. And for Pakatan to win 70 parliament seats is difficult and it may even be less than 70. That is the reality of what is going to happen in GE14. Of course, I may be wrong and may be forced to eat my own words. Then again, it could be the morning after Polling Day that I write my “I told you so” article.

There is a lesson to be learned here. And that is never wound a ferocious animal. Either you kill it or you leave it alone. A wounded animal is dangerous. If you wound it then it will come back to hunt you. Pakatan wounded Umno and Barisan Nasional in 2008. They were supposed to have finished that job in 2013 but did not. And then in 2014 they trained their attacks on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. And they wounded but did not kill him in 2015. And now Pakatan will have to face that wrath of Najib, Umno and Barisan Nasional.

Mahathir’s PPBM: another Umno and Semangat 46 clone