Are Umno, Bersatu headed for a political bloodbath in Sabah?

SABAH POLLS | The fragile Perikatan Nasional coalition, heading into the Sabah elections, has publicly shown a united front with promises to negotiate and share seats among its component parties. But behind the scenes, manoeuvrings to gain an upper hand appear to be afoot 

Ahead of nomination day on Sept 12, PN is racing against time to prevent its component parties from cannibalising each other's seats as they face-off against their main rival, the Warisan-led alliance which has fewer parties and a less complex relationship.

But a recent meeting between Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin with five assemblypersons who had defected and supported Musa Aman's comeback as Sabah chief minister has set tongues a-wagging in political circles.

The five assemblypersons - three from Umno and two from Upko - were originally part of BN - but defected to Warisan's alliance after the 2018 general election.

They later defected again - this time to Musa's side - to support a political coup against the Warisan-led government which was eventually thwarted after Sabah (caretaker) chief minister Shafie Apdal secured the dissolution of the state assembly to pave way for fresh polls.

A photograph of the meeting has been widely circulated on social media, sparking speculation that the five assemblypersons were exploring the possibility of joining Bersatu ahead of the Sabah elections.

With three of the five assemblypersons originally from Umno, this could further complicate the relationship between Bersatu and Umno.

To recount, Umno has been nursing its wounded pride after all but one of its 17 assemblypersons defected following GE14.

Eight of them defected to Bersatu, namely Hajiji Mohd Noor (Sulaman), Japlin Akim (Usukan), Isnin Aiasnih (Klias), Nizam Abu Bakar Titingan (Apas), Mohd Arifin Arif (Membakut), Masidi Manjun (Karanaan), Ghulam Khan Bahadar (Kawang) and Matbali Musah (Lumadan).

Umno has insisted that the party is entitled to reclaim the seats of those who had defected but Bersatu is maintaining that the incumbents should be allowed to defend their seats regardless of the defection.

Umno haemorrhaging seats

If Muhyiddin, who is the Bersatu president, decides to throw a lifeline to the five assemblypersons, Umno may be forced to give up another three seats, namely Tempasuk (Musbah Jamli), Pitas (Bolkiah Ismail) and Sukau (Saddi Abdu Rahman).

Musbah, Boliah and Saddi are veterans, having served their current constituencies for three terms. The other two assemblypersons are Kuamut's Masiung Banah and Kuala Penyu's Limus Jury.

The two are less of a problem for PN as they were originally from Upko which is now part of the Warisan's alliance and therefore will not cause an intra-coalition overlap in PN even if they were to contest under Bersatu.

Masiung, when contacted, confirmed with Malaysiakini that the meeting with Muhyiddin took place last Wednesday at Parliament but downplayed its significance.

He acknowledged the speculation that they had gone there to join Bersatu but said this wasn't the case.

"It was more about development in Kuamut (Masiung's constituency)," he said, adding the five were still considering their political future ahead of the snap polls and he was also interested in contesting under any PN party.

Bolkiah, meanwhile, was tight-lipped, telling Malaysiakini that it was "not convenient" to discuss the matter. The other three assemblypersons have yet to respond to requests for comment.

Masiung's interest in a PN ticket may come true as indications are that Muhyiddin plans for PN to debut as a formal coalition in the Sabah elections.

The Bersatu president has kept his cards close to the chest but a leaked video of a Bersatu Youth internal briefing suggests he wants all component parties to contest under a common logo - a dark blue flag with the words "Perikatan Nasional".

PN could split into three in Sabah

However, the leaked briefing by Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal, who was at the time campaigning for the Bersatu Youth chief position, also revealed that Umno plans to stick with its own BN logo in Sabah.

At the federal level, Zahid also declared that BN won't formally join PN even though it is part of the PN government in Putrajaya.

This means even if the Umno defectors were to contest under a PN ticket, it would still set them on a collision course with BN, in particular Umno.

Currently, the relationship between Umno and Bersatu in Sabah has been shaky, with Sabah Bersatu chief Hajiji Mohd Noor unilaterally declaring that it will be contesting 45 out of the 73 state seats, prompting a war of words with Umno.

Furthermore, PBS, another PN coalition partner, has also declared that it is eyeing to contest 30 seats under its own logo, further complicating matters for PN.

PBS is the next most influential PN party in Sabah after Umno and Bersatu.

With just 25 days remaining to nomination day, the race is now on to prevent a multi-cornered political bloodbath which could weaken PN in facing Warisan and it's Pakatan Harapan (DAP, PKR, Amanah) and Upko partners.

PN is a wide-ranging ruling coalition at the federal level but its players in Sabah are Bersatu, PAS, BN (Umno, MCA, PBRS), PBS and Star.

If PN cannot come to a consensus, it could split into at least three groups in the run-up to the Sabah elections, namely Bersatu and PAS under PN, BN and PBS.

Star has not indicated its relationship with PN in Sabah but has traditionally led its own alliance of minor parties under the United Sabah Alliance (USA).

The other remaining PN parties namely BN's MIC and GPS' PBB, PRS, PDP and SUPP, do not contest in Sabah.

Sabahans are set to decide their political fate on Sept 26. - Mkini