Will The Government Collapse In Four Months’ Time?

Anyway, let the government fall first on 1st August 2021 and then we will see what happens. However, I for one would like to see a free-for-all in GE15 to lay to rest once and for all who really has the support of the voters and whether Umno still has it or is merely basking in the glories of the past like those dreamers of the re-emergence of the Islamic Empire, which has long been reduced to dust.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

These appear to be the decisions passed by the Umno General Assembly yesterday:

Umno will end its relationship with PPBM.

The delegates gave the mandate to the Umno Supreme Council as to the actual date-time Umno terminates its relationship with PPBM.

PAS will have to choose between Umno and PPBM. If PAS chooses PPBM, then Umno will terminate its relationship with PAS as well.

Notwithstanding what happen at federal level, Umno in Kelantan and Terengganu will not cooperate with PAS in GE15 while Umno in Perlis and Selangor will continue its relationship with PAS. The other states have not stated their stands yet.

Has Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional government got only four months to go?

As soon as the Emergency ends on 1st August 2021, Umno will resign from the government and Umno proxies-nominees at all levels of government will resign from their posts (from the Cabinet posts down to Local Councils and GLCs).

This effectively means, unless the Emergency is extended beyond 1st August 2021, on that day the government will fall.

Those Cabinet posts can be easily replaced, as can all the other positions in the government and GLCs as well. In fact, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin would be wise to start choosing the replacements now in anticipation of mass resignations at all levels of government on 1st August 2021. That’s what I would do.

The issue of the majority in Parliament is another matter, though. If the Umno or Barisan Nasional MPs cross over to Pakatan Harapan or declare that they are now independent and are not part of the Perikatan Nasional government, that can be interpreted as a backdoor vote of no confidence even if Parliament is not sitting yet.

This would then necessitate a head count. Does Muhyiddin still have the support of not less than 111 of the 220 members of parliament? If he does then nothing happens. He continues as prime minister and all those vacant positions in the Cabinet and government can be filled.

If on 1st August 2021 Muhyiddin has the support of less than 111 MPs, then he has to request an audience with Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong and either officially resign as Prime Minister or seek His Majesty’s consent to dissolve Parliament to make way for GE15.

If the Agong accepts Muhyiddin’s resignation as Prime Minister but no one else has the majority or a larger minority than Muhyiddin, then Parliament will still need to be dissolved anyway since no one has the majority or a larger minority than Muhyiddin to be able to form the government.

Even if the government falls Anwar may not have the majority to take over as PM9

Whoever wants to form the new government and take over from Muhyiddin as PM9 will need to prove he has more MPs with him than what Muhyiddin has, or that he has not less than 111 of the 220 MPs with him. If no one can beat Muhyiddin’s minority, or no one has 111 MPs with him, the new government cannot be formed, so Parliament will need to be dissolved to make way for GE15.

In short, bringing down Muhyiddin’s government is one thing. But whether someone else is able to form the new government is not certain yet as whoever wants to take over must prove he has the confidence of the majority of the House. The more likely scenario is the fall of the government would trigger GE15.

The fact that Anwar Ibrahim organised a protest demonstration in Parliament recently and only 65 instead of 135 MPs turned up gives the impression that he does not have a strong, formidable, convincing majority after all, as he claims. And that would mean ousting Muhyiddin does not translate to Anwar automatically taking over as PM9.

Anyway, Anwar cannot take over as PM9 just on Pakatan Harapan’s support alone, even if he gets 100% support. He needs Barisan Nasional’s support as well. And unless Umno does a U-turn from its decision yesterday, that may not happen. But then you never know because politicians can say one thing but do the opposite.

The final chapter of this one-year drama lies in the hands of the Agong

If Umno pulls support from the government on 1st August 2021, the most likely scenario would be Parliament would be dissolved to make way for GE15. And what is going to happen in GE15 is not too clear yet as Umno seems to be confused about what to do. Whether what Umno has been saying thus far are threats or promises is anyone’s guess.

Anyway, let the government fall first on 1st August 2021 and then we will see what happens. However, I for one would like to see a free-for-all in GE15 to lay to rest once and for all who really has the support of the voters and whether Umno still has it or is merely basking in the glories of the past like those dreamers of the re-emergence of the Islamic Empire, which has long been reduced to dust.

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Ini adalah beberapa komen umum saya kepada media semalam

Kamarul Zaman Yusoff

(1) Mentaliti kita adalah untuk memimpin bukan untuk dipimpin smacks of intellectual arrogance (kesombongan intelektual) yang akan boleh melarikan pihak-pihak lain yang turut merasakan mereka berhak dan layak untuk diberi peluang memimpin.

(2) Pendirian untuk bertanding berseorangan tetapi bersedia untuk bekerjasama dengan sesiapa sahaja selepas pilihan raya selesai memberikan gambaran bahawa segala-galanya adalah demi kuasa bukannya demi mana-mana prinsip yang murni.

(3) Pernyataan mengenai kesediaan untuk bekerjasama membentuk kerajaan selepas pilihan raya selesai merupakan pengakuan tersirat mengenai ketidakyakinan penuturnya ke atas kemampuannya untuk memenangi pilihan raya secara bersendirian.

Sukar dibayangkan keaiban yang akan menimpa diri kita jika kita akhirnya akan terpaksa berlutut di kaki “This” dan “That” untuk bekerjasama bila sebelumnya kita sendiri juga yang gah melaung-laungkan setiap masa mengenai “No This” dan “No That”.