Analysis: Abidin draws the crowds, while Joohari's fortunes unclear

SG BAKAP BY-ELECTION | On the final day of campaigning before the “real match” begins, predicting tomorrow’s outcome is not as easy as watching the recent football game between teams from Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional at Taman Pekatra.

Elections are not determined by who wins on the field or who excels off the field. However, it cannot be denied that effort and support there can decide their fates.

Throughout the two-week campaign, it has been difficult to assess who will prevail tomorrow, whether it will be PN candidate Abidin Ismail or his Harapan rival Joohari Ariffin.

Trends in Sungai Bakap do not clearly show who will emerge victorious, but some indicators might provide an early sneak peek of what tomorrow has in store.

Malaysiakini’s observations found that the campaign narrative brought by the PN machinery seems more popular, with many opportunities from Harapan to score easy points.

A “people-friendly” campaign is certainly more vibrant in attracting the support of the common people compared to a more critical campaign narrative.

Issues such as diesel subsidy rationalisation, rising cost of living, government administrative failures, the performance of the prime minister and his cabinet, the need to strengthen the opposition’s voice, and past promises that are impossible to fulfil in the current situation are much easier to market on opposition ceramah stages.

PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin, in his grand finale ceramah at Taman Widuri last night, claimed that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’0s performance has already been judged.

“Anwar has been leading the country as prime minister for nearly two years and has already been evaluated. We in Sungai Bakap have evaluated, the whole country has evaluated, international experts have evaluated.

“The evaluation from an economic standpoint, for example, they say our country is getting worse by the day, not improving by the day,” he said in front of thousands of supporters.

Although the statements may not necessarily reflect reality, they are something close to the community. Therefore, such a narrative is an easy choice in the art of politics and projects an image of advocacy for the people.

For parties in the Madani government, their campaign to counter PN’s narrative appears to be an uphill battle. This is because unpopular measures taken by the government are difficult for voters in Sungai Bakap to swallow.

Pakatan Harapan’s Sungai Bakap candidate Joohari Ariffin

The Harapan-BN machinery had to work hard not only to provide explanations but also to ensure voters understood and accepted steps taken by the government in light of the country’s predicament.

PN ceramah encouraging

PN held a “grand finale” mega ceramah last night, and Malaysiakini’s observation was that the turnout of PN supporters was very encouraging, as if it were the climax of a general election campaign.

Dozens of stalls were set up on both sides of the road, and attendees had to park their vehicles as far as 2km from the venue.

The ceramah speeches emphasised the people’s suffering in facing the rising cost of living. In the end, the programme managed to raise donations amounting to over RM12,000.

If last night’s ceramah attendance was the yardstick, Abidin has already won. His fortunes can clearly be seen there.

Perikatan Nasional candidate for Sungai Bakap Abidin Ismail

However, it is not as simple as counting bodies at a ceramah. Several people approached by Malaysiakini revealed that they were supporters from outside Sungai Bakap.

It is an open secret that PAS supporters are always enthusiastic about mega ceramah programmes, especially when they feature party president Abdul Hadi Awang and PN election director Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor.

The aura brought by these figures provides some morale support that could be translated into votes tomorrow.

Concern for Harapan

As for the Chinese and Indian voters, their unclear support should be a cause for concern for Harapan.

Malaysiakini’s straw poll found this segment of voters are increasingly uncomfortable with the government or have decided to abstain from voting.

However, this situation may be isolated cases since the majority of them are a “fixed deposit” for Harapan parties, especially DAP.

Nevertheless, there are still issues plaguing Harapan’s campaign among Chinese voters. For example, there are rumours of a rift between Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow and DAP chairperson Lim Guan Eng.

Additionally, DAP top leaders seldom campaigned in Sungai Bakap, apart from state-level leaders including Chow who frequently filled ceramah slots in an effort to explain local issues.

The attendance of Chinese voters at Harapan ceramah programmes was rather poor, but it is not necessarily a sign that they rejected the ruling party’s campaign.

It is also possible that they have already made their decision without needing further explanation through the campaign.

Candidates’ manifestos

As the candidate from the government side, Joohari’s manifesto appears to give him an edge over his opponent.

Many of what he offered seemed guaranteed to be implemented. In fact, Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has already committed to establishing a centre for the elderly and a Tamil national school in the area.

The announcement by the Umno president could be considered “election candy”, but at the same time, it is a realistic agenda based on local needs.

Conversely, Abidin’s manifesto presentation was less convincing, though it suits his status as an opposition candidate.

In this regard, Joohari has the upper hand if elections were decided by a comparison of manifestos, especially for fence-sitters and critical thinkers.

Youth vote

Meanwhile, the two main deciding factors in the competition between Abidin and Joohari are the youth vote and Umno’s supporters and members.

The involvement of youths, whether during campaign events or ceramahs, still shows a trend of support for PN.

However, this sentiment among voters aged between 18 to 25 is not as strong as what was seen during the 15th general election or the subsequent state elections.

There seems to be an opportunity for the Harapan-BN machinery to engage with the youth. Even though it is still difficult to get their message across, small inroads here can still tip the scales in the coalition’s favour.

The Umno vote

Ultimately, the Harapan candidate’s fortunes tomorrow hinges on how much the Umno grassroots are willing to flock back to support the ruling government, with the party’s unlikely alliance with Harapan.

Of the approximately 5,800 Umno members in Sungai Bakap, Joohari needs the support of half of their votes to ensure his victory.

The work of the Umno machinery during the campaign period appears well-organised, especially in appealing to their members to help the federal government coalition.

However, the support from Umno supporters remains ambiguous. Who knows what Joohari’s fortunes will be?

Based on findings and predictions, competition between the two candidates is neck and neck and remains intense.

Nevertheless, Malaysiakini expects that if tomorrow’s results favour PN, Abidin’s majority will exceed the results in the previous state election.

Conversely, if the Harapan candidate manages to win the seat, the majority will be lower than that obtained by the late Nor Zamri Latiff in the previous state election. -Mkini