Today, US President Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs targeting several Asean nations, significantly raising import duties on key regional trade partners.
These tariffs, branded as part of his “Liberation Day” economic strategy are aimed at pressuring Asean economies but risk triggering inflationary pressures in the US and beyond.
Tariffs on several Asean countries are as follows:
Vietnam: 46 percent
Cambodia: 49 percent
Thailand: 36 percent
Indonesia: 32 percent
Malaysia: 24 percent
These tariffs significantly affect Asean economies, particularly those reliant on exports to the US.
However, while they present economic challenges, they will not lead to Asean’s collapse. The real concern lies in their ability to disrupt Asean unity and create inflationary pressures.
Challenges for Asean
Asean has weathered multiple external shocks, from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to the US-China trade wars.
Despite the disparate effects of these tariffs, the bloc’s institutional frameworks - such as the Asean Economic Community (AEC) would help maintain regional resilience.
However, Asean’s unity may be tested as member states with higher tariffs, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, might seek separate negotiations with the US, leading to potential divisions within the bloc.
The most immediate impact of Trump’s tariffs will be inflation, both in the US and worldwide. As import costs rise, businesses will pass these costs onto consumers, driving up prices.
Historical examples, such as the Corn Laws in 19th-century Britain, show that protectionist policies often lead to economic inefficiencies and increased costs.
Asian Trade Centre executive director Deborah Elms argues that supply chain disruptions from tariffs create long-term inflationary pressures, particularly in industries reliant on global trade.
Jeff Friedman at Harvard University, an expert in trade policy, further warns that retaliatory tariffs from Asean could deepen inflationary spirals.
Trade diversification
To counteract these economic pressures, Malaysia and Asean must strengthen their trade partnerships through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and South-South cooperation, and expand trade with the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
Elms emphasised that agreements like RCEP and CPTPP provide Asean with alternative markets, reducing reliance on the US and shielding economies from trade disruptions.
These agreements enable Asean nations to deepen intra-regional trade and attract investment.
Academic Rajah Rasiah highlighted the importance of strengthening economic ties with emerging markets in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Increased trade with these regions would allow Asean to bypass Western-centric economic dependencies.
Recently, Malaysia resumed negotiations for an EU-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement after 12 years, demonstrating a commitment to economic diversification.
Strengthening ties with the GCC provides access to high-value markets and energy-sector cooperation.
Navigating a new economic reality
While Trump’s tariffs will not dismantle Asean, they pose significant challenges that require a unified and strategic economic response.
By prioritising RCEP, CPTPP, South-South trade, and partnerships with the EU and GCC, Asean can withstand these pressures and emerge stronger.
The real fear lies not in Asean’s collapse but in inflationary spirals that will impact global economies, including the US.
- Bernama
PHAR KIM BENG is an academic of Asean Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.