POLITICAL analyst James Chai has argued in a Channel News Asia column that the DAP’s shocking wipeout in the recent Sabah state election was driven primarily by a shift in national sentiment among Chinese voters, rather than just local “Sabah for Sabahans” feelings.
In an in-depth analysis, Chai pointed out that DAP’s vote share in its six previously safe urban Chinese-majority seats plummeted from an average 78.7% in 2020 to just 27.6% in 2025 — a massive 51.1% swing.
Even supermajority strongholds like Luyang (90.6%), Likas (86.3%), and Kapayan (77.4%) fell, despite being held by prominent leaders.
“Local issues alone are unlikely to deliver such a massive swing across all six of DAP’s seats,” Chai wrote, adding that only “significant changes in national sentiment among Chinese voters could have delivered such a decisive outcome”.
The key difference since 2020, he noted, is DAP’s nearly three-year role in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government.
“It is perhaps inevitable in Malaysia that parties with a majority Chinese base will end up seen as a compliant supporting party to the dominant Malay party.”
Chai rejected the idea of Chinese voters as a monolithic bloc, instead describing their preferences as a complex “three-body problem” involving Vernacularists (focused on cultural preservation), Mercantilists (prioritising business ease), and Reformists (demanding institutional reforms and anti-corruption measures).
“It is impossible to satisfy all three at once,” he warned.
When the balance destabilises, voter behaviour becomes unpredictable, with small triggers — such as the federal appeal on Sabah’s 40% revenue entitlement or late scandals — potentially causing disproportionate swings.
Chai concluded that the results mark a turning point: “For the first time in more than a decade, it has become almost impossible to predict how the Chinese would vote.” — Focus Malaysia
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