Anwar still PM if BN exits, but will Umno survive?

 

Threats from certain quarters in Umno to quit the Madani coalition and join forces with PAS are in danger of falling flat.

While there remains unhappiness in the party over DAP celebrating former Umno president Najib Abdul Razak being kept in jail, the cards are not stacked in Umno’s favour.

First, the party does not have leverage if it wants to pull off an exit in the near future before the current government term ends.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim commands the support of 153 MPs, and if Umno/BN and its 30 MPs quit, the former will still be in power with 123 MPs.

Anwar can quickly stabilise the government by giving more ministerial posts to GRS, as well as to smaller allies like Warisan, Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), and independents supporting him.

Secondly, BN is bound by a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by all government parties in December 2022.

Pakatan Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim at a BN event in 2023

One of the clauses in the MOU compels signatories to ensure that all MPs in their respective parties vote for Anwar and the government in confidence or budget votes.

MPs who don’t comply are considered to have resigned as a lawmaker, according to the MOU.

Third, the hopes of Umno gaining power by reviving Muafakat Nasional (MN) are also slim.

While PAS had, for a moment yesterday, expressed inclination towards going solo or reviving MN, such sentiments evaporated after Muhyiddin Yassin decided to quit as Perikatan Nasional chief.

This has opened the window for PAS to take over the PN leadership.

As International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor Syaza Shukri puts it, if PAS can take over PN, then it doesn’t need Umno or MN.

Further, she said, leaving the Madani coalition is not beneficial for Umno.

“Umno would have to leave the government and at this point, again, although there are unhappy voices, Umno benefits more from being in power,” she told Malaysiakini.

Umno-Harapan ties

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat expressed a similar view when contacted.

He said Umno and PAS both compete for the same electoral market, and it would be more ideal for Umno to crush PAS than work with it.

“Umno would be acting against its best interest to join PAS now. With Umno holding only 26 (parliamentary) seats against PAS’ 44, Umno would be condemned to be PAS’ junior partner.

“No matter how much Umno leaders shout to declare their love for Najib, they won’t be stupid enough to subject their party to PAS’ control. They won’t want to be Bersatu 2.0,” he said.

Umno and PAS collaborated in 2019

Wong added that the benefits of Umno staying with Pakatan Harapan are obvious, in that as long as Harapan can’t win more Malay support, it would need Umno.

Waning power

Umno’s political fortunes have been in decline since 2004.

Back then, Umno had 50 percent of the Parliament seats, while BN controlled almost 90 percent.

However, after the last general election in 2022, Umno only accounts for 12 percent of MPs.

At present, the top leadership under Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is betting on support from Harapan to keep BN afloat, and even to claw back seats.

This strategy has had mixed results thus far, with BN being wiped out in Kedah during the 2023 state election, while its share of state seats in Sabah also diminished in last month’s polls.

Harapan also suffered badly in the Sabah election, with DAP losing all its seats. - Mkini