Merebut Jalan Tol : Tuan-Tuan Tak Dapat Habuk Pun.

Sekali lagi the orang kaya are looking after their bank accounts. 

Tuan-tuan rakyat marhaen dapat apa? 

Tak dapat apa pun.
Mengikut apa yang sedang dicadangkan, bukan saja cucu tetapi cicit tuan-tuan akan terus bayar tol. 

Buatlah kongres apa pun - tuan-tuan tak dapat habuk pun. 
Orang kaya, orang powerful dan orang berpengaruh dapat semua. 

Here is the news :

"competition" for toll roads heating up

Widad is upping its offer for PLUS to RM5.3b cash

Halim Saad proposal to take over tolls owned by Gamuda, Litrak, 

both proposals presented to ministry of works

Khazanah's stand not to dispose 51% stake in PLUS

EPF holds remaining 49% of PLUS

Halim’s surprising bid came before cut-off date

cut-off date extended by two months from Aug 30

June, MoF Inc offered RM4.5b cash — shouldering liabilities 

for four toll concessionaires where Gamuda holds equity 

Halim will create toll highway investment trust

Sumatec Resources is public-listed entity controlled by Halim

Widad’s revised offer RM5.3b for PLUS is RM100m more than Halim’s RM5.2b

Widad offer to acquire 100% in PLUS for RM5.3b cash

compensation waiver of RM3.038b,  assume debt RM30b

bringing total  value of offer to RM38.338b

(OSTB : I bet Widad and Halim read my earlier Blog post on this.)

revised offer by Widad has two more additional clauses

1.  waiver of RM11b sukuk guarantee by govt

2.  new option for govt to buy back PLUS after 10 years (market value)

Widad revised offer after Dr M commented bids not attractive 

RRJ Capital also submitted bid for PLUS

offers RM3.5b cash to buy out PLUS, plus liabilities

All three offer toll reductions, extend concession 

plus gov guarantees of debt papers

Azmin commented companies taking over PLUS will not fulfil PH manifesto

that private companies only look at profit instead of lowering or abolishing toll

Azmin added make sure road users will benefit from any takeover

Guan Eng said proposals 

• should have zero impact on govt’s debt service charges
• no ?? compensation on freezing toll hikes??
• must be substantial savings for road users.

ideal bid lightens burden on road users 

commercially viable for concessionaire

Here is Azmin's point again :

My comments : Dia macam ini tuan-tuan. 

1. Dalam negara kita ini ada approximately LIMA JUTA hektar ladang kelapa sawit.
2. Setiap hektar hasilnya hampiri 18 - 20 ton metrik buah kelapa sawit (FFB) setahun.
3. Hasil minyak sawit pula hamper 4 ton metrik bagi setiap hektar kelapa sawit setahun.
4. Jumlah pengeluaran minyak sawit negara kita around 20 juta ton metrik setahun.

Ini bukan 100% tepat tetapi quite close lah.

Nama saintifik bagi kelapa sawit adalah Elaeis Guineensis.
So this is our palm oil economy. 

This is the real stuff. 

The physical quantities or the physical output daripada industry kelapa sawit Malaysia.

Yang lain semua bunga-bunga, hiasan dan karat sikit sana sini.   Contohnya :

• Berapakah harga minyak sawit? Kena tengok cuaca dunia, jualan minyak lain (jagung, soya bean etc), Europe haramkan minyak sawit, India beli atau tak beli minyak sawit kita dsbnya.  
  
• Yang mempunyai kesan terhadap harga satu EKAR ladang kelapa sawit (RM80,000 ke, RM100,000 ke).
  
• Ladang kelapa sawit kena bayar hutang kepada bank - bank Islam ke, bank konvensional ke, pinjaman jangka Panjang, jangka pendek etc.
  
• Pekerja ladang dari Indonesia ke, Bangladesh ke, orang tempatan ke etc.

So yang ini semua adalah fakta sekunder (secondary facts) atau ancillary facts berkenaan industry minyak kelapa sawit di Malaysia.

Perkara yang sangat penting, the really important facts, adalah point 1 - 4 di atas. 

The physical output of the palm oil industry.

Pinjam duit bank Islam ke, bank bukan Islam ke, pekerja Indon ke, pekerja Bangla ke - satu hektar ladang kelapa sawit hanya boleh hasilkan EMPAT tan metrik minyak kelapa sawit.

So katakanlah Sime Darby nak jual satu ekar ladang kelapa sawit dengan harga RM200,000 se ekar, maksudnya ini sudah dekat dua kali ganda harga pasaran. Jadi untuk cover balik harga yang mahal itu orang yang beli tanah sawit daripada Sime Darby itu perlu jual pengeluaran FFB / minyak sawitnya pada dua kali ganda harga pasaran dunia juga. That is impossible. Tidak ada siapa pun akan beli minyak sawitnya dengan dua kali harga pasaran.

Jadi kemungkinan besar pokok kelapa sawit akan ditebang dan tanah itu akan digunakan untuk pembangunan perumahan, dengan harapan projek perumahan boleh menghasilkan keuntungan yang lebih.  So maksudnya pembeli tanah itu sudah terkeluar daripada industry kelapa sawit. Sudah tukar haluan.

Serupa juga dengan rebut-merebut PLUS.

a.   Highway semua sudah siap. 

b.   Jarak lebuhraya Utara Selatan adalah 814km atau 505 batu dari Bukit Kayu Hitam          ke Johor Bharu. 

c.   Bilangan kereta dan lori yang menggunakan lebuhraya PLUS setiap tahun pun             diketahui. 

d.   Bayaran tol bagi setiap kilometer pun sudah ditetapkan. 

e.   Jumlah kutipan tol setiap tahun pun diketahui. 

Jadi bila Korporat A menawarkan RM3.5 Bilion untuk beli PLUS, atau korporat lain menawarkan harga RM5.2 Bilion atau (latest) RM5.3 billion, tanpa jaminan kerajaan untuk pinjaman, tanpa perlu kepada hutang sukuk RM11 billion dsbnya ini semua hanya bunga-bunga dan hiasan. Atau comot-comot.

Mereka semua "mengambil kesempatan" fakta a - e yang di atas ini. 

Highway dah lama siap, kutipan tol berjalan lancer. 

Tiada risiko bagi mereka.

Bagi korporat yang menawarkan harga beli yang lebih dia akan terpaksa melanjutkan tempoh tol untuk cover balik harga beli yang tinggi.   

Antara cadangan mereka adalah tempoh tol dilanjutkan sehingga 2058.   Kita kena bayar tol sampai ke cicit kita.

Bagi korporat yang menawarkan harga rendah pula dia ingat kita bodoh. Kalaulah harga yang rendah itu diterima (oleh Khazanah dan EPF) maksudnya kita yang rugi juga dan sekali lagi kerugian itu akan ditanggung sampai ke cicit kita.

Tuan - tuan, opsyen yang mana pun kita akan tetap kena bayar tol - kepada orang kaya korporat.

At least sekarang ini kita sebenarnya bayar tol kepada Khazanah dan EPF - Khazanah adalah syarikat kerajaan (kepunyaan kita) dan EPF menguruskan wang simpanan pekerja swasta.  Kita juga.

Orang korporat besar dan kaya ini mahu terus ambil alih lebuhraya yang sudah pun siap dan suruh kita bayar tol kepada mereka pula sehingga tahun 2058 !! 39 tahun lagi !! Banyak cantik.

Tuan-tuan I have a suggestion.

Cadangan saya ini adalah untuk menghapuskan jalan tol SEMUA sekali. Tetapi someone has to pay for it. Tidak lain tidak bukan kita yang perlu membayar duit untuk menamatkan bayaran tol. Tetapi ada cara mudah yang tidak akan bebankan duit dalam dompet kita, dengan terlalu ekstrim.

(Sudah tentu orang kaya korporat akan menjadi very unhappy dengan cadangan  saya ini.  Juga vested interests seperti Tan Sri dan Dato ahli Lembaga Pengarah PLUS, ahli Lembaga Pengarah anak syarikat PLUS dan ramai lagi tidak akan setuju cadangan saya.)

Tetapi kita mesti ambil berat duit kocek rakyat biasa, rakyat marhaen. That means YOU. It seems like none of these pemangsa korporat (corporate predators) care about you. Except OSTB.

Cadangan saya begini. Setakat ini, sama ada PLUS kekal atau cadangan untuk ambil alih PLUS oleh orang kaya korporat itu, kita rakyat marhaen akan terpaksa bayar tol juga.

Ikut kontrak sekarang, pembayaran tol akan tamat pada 2038 - 19 tahun lagi.

Ikut cadangan orang kaya korporat pula kita akan bayar tol (yang kurang sikit) tetapi sehingga tahun 2058. 

2038 ke, 2058 ke, 2100 ke we still have to pay money from our pockets. 

Kita kena bayar juga.

So my suggestion is again simple - keep it  DOABLE (BOLEH DIBUAT) AND WORKABLE.

The government has to buy over PLUS and the other TOLL highways and then remove all the tolls.

Where does the money come from? The RM30 billion or RM35 billion etc?

To raise the money required to buy PLUS from Khazanah and EPF (the two shareholders of PLUS) the government can issue special Highway Bonds. The exact amount has to be carefully worked out.

The tenure or tempoh of these Highway Bonds can match the existing PLUS Concession ie until 2038 (19 more years).

Di sini tuan-tuan harus faham, whether government issued Highway Bonds atau kita sendiri continue bayar tol for the next 19 years it is the same.  

Because it is both OUR money. 

REMEMBER : IT IS ALL OUR MONEY. 

• Either we continue to suffer paying toll directly from our pocket for the next 19 years, or 
• we pay taxes to the government for the next 19 years to pay off the Highway Bonds,

it is just the same. Both ways we pay. 

So I suggest the government issue special Highway Bonds and buy out PLUS from Khazanah and EPF. 

Then we the rakyat tell the government to use our tax money for the next 19 years  to pay off the Highway Bonds.   

No more paying toll at the toll gate.

In both cases the time frame (tempoh bayaran balik) of 19 years does not change.  

It is the remaining 19 years of the toll concession.

The big difference is my fear that if we DO NOT get rid of the toll roads now, then after 19 years some other smart beggar korporat will come and extend the toll for another 20 years.

ACTUALLY THIS IS WHAT THESE ORANG KAYA KORPORAT ARE SUGGESTING  ALREADY - THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE TOL UNTIL 2058 !!

So better watch out. 

Let us just get rid of these toll highways. 

Nanti kita kena tipu lagi.

What are the effects of the government issuing special Highway Bonds to buy out PLUS and end the toll highway system? 

1.  About half the purchase of PLUS assets will be paid to Khazanah. Khazanah is 100% government owned. Then Khazanah Nasional can declare a special dividend and pay back to the government the money it received for PLUS. The government can use the special dividend from Khazanah to settle some of the Highway Bonds. It is just left pocket to right pocket. Hutang kerajaan jadi kurang. 

2.  Removing tolls along 814 km of the North South Highway and the other toll roads in the Klang Valley will give a huge boost to the economy. Land prices will appreciate, property prices will appreciate, there will be massive new developments along the N-S Highway and along the other toll roads in the Klang Valley etc. 

Minus tolls people will move out of the city to live in the suburbs. 

Or people will move closer to their aged parents, closer to school, to their place of work, etc etc. 

There will be major spinoffs in the Malaysian economy. 

Even Sabah and Sarawak will benefit. 

And issue the Highway Bonds to all Malaysians, in small denominations of say RM1000. This means the rakyat can walk into Bank Negara or any bank (as Agent) and ask to buy a Highway Bond.  If the Highway Bond carries an interest rate of say 2% or 3% then people can pass these Highway Bonds to their children and grandchildren as "savings certificates",  as birthday gifts etc.

Or EPF can buy some of the bonds. And since EPF owns 49% of PLUS, a portion of the money that EPF pays to buy the Highway Bonds will come back to the EPF.  Left pocket masuk right pocket. Liquidity in the financial system will not be too adversely affected.  (Make sure they are Ringgit bonds).

Guan Eng talks about the government's debt service. 

There is no Holy Grail on government debt service. 

Plus I believe the government's finances are good.

More importantly for what will the extra debt be used? 

We are not buying a submarine that cannot dive. 

The extra debt will unlock massive development potential along 814 km of highway plus along all the other toll roads in the Klang Valley and the Penang Bridge(s).

To conclude, Tuan-tuan either 

a.  you continue paying tolls directly from your own pocket until 2038 (19 years more), until 2058 (another 39 years under the new orang kaya korporat), with no major boost for development along the toll highways.

or

b. the government issues Highway Bonds, completely buys out and shuts down ALL the toll highways and then repays the Bonds from our income taxes, corporate taxes, service taxes, car import taxes and so many other taxes over the next 19 years or so. Minus toll highways there will be a major boost for development along all the TOLL FREE highways. The economy will enjoy major spinoffs.

Both ways it is we who must pay. 

We cannot run away from that fact.

Macam mana pun it is we who will pay.

I prefer continuing paying my income taxes instead of paying toll everyday out of my pocket. I strongly recommend option b.