TG PIAI POLLS | In the last general election, Pakatan Harapan achieved a major upset when, for the first time, it penetrated the BN fortress of Tanjung Piai. However, a confluence of factors is making it tough for the coalition to replicate the same success in this Saturday's by-election.
Bersatu's late Md Farid Md Rafik narrowly captured the parliamentary seat from MCA's Wee Jeck Seng in 2018, on the back of strong support from the Chinese community, which makes up around 41.4 percent of the population there, coupled with a small swing in the Malay community that comprises 57.6 percent.
Polling data indicate that 32 percent of Malays and 64 percent of Chinese voters supported Farid in the last general election.
But with just a few days left before voters head to the polls, Karmaine Sardini (below), who Bersatu has put forward to defend the seat, is finding an erosion of support from their biggest backers - the Chinese voters.
Chinese voters have become increasingly impatient with Harapan, ranging from the introduction of Jawi lessons and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's presence at the Malay Dignity Congress last month, at which some participants made inflammatory speeches.
DAP leaders, who have been campaigning for Karmaine, have urged the voters to look at the bigger picture, stating that any vote for BN would be an endorsement of the ethno-religious Umno-PAS alliance.
They have also argued that voting for BN would be an endorsement of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak, who is standing trial for allegedly misappropriating billions of ringgit in 1MDB funds and was welcomed by Wee in Tanjung Piai.
But this message appears to have fallen on deaf ears for some voters, like 62-year-old retiree Yeo Shiok Sui.
Yeo (below) is clear about the serious allegations against Najib and is not happy with Wee welcoming the former prime minister, who is accused of turning Malaysia into a kleptocracy, but plans to vote for Wee anyway, not because he supports BN, but to "teach Harapan a lesson".
'Not endorsing Najib, but a lesson for Harapan'
"We will vote for Wee. We have a lot of opinions about Najib and don't support him, but we want to teach Harapan a lesson.
"It's been more than a year but they (Harapan) are still blaming the previous government. What we want is for you (Harapan) to do well (in the government)," Yeo told Malaysiakini when met at Kukup Laut.
He added that even if DAP contested the seat instead of Bersatu, the outcome would be the same.
"Even if it was DAP contesting against MCA, I think MCA can still win. A lot of Chinese are unhappy with Mahathir and Harapan, but DAP never talks about it,” he added.
Meanwhile, a 64-year-old voter who only wanted to be known as Kuan (photo) said he previously supported Harapan but will vote for Wee in this by-election.
"We voted Harapan in the last election because we wanted to change the government. But now, we look at the candidate but not the party,” the retiree said.
This trend appears to be more prevalent among older Chinese voters, which will force Harapan to turn to younger voters to arrest the erosion of its Chinese base.
However, many young Chinese in the constituencies work outstation, particularly in Singapore.
Harapan operatives who spoke to Malaysiakini estimated that some 40 percent of Chinese voters were not in the constituency at that time.
Yeo said he would not persuade his children to come back and vote in this by-election.
“It is up to them to decide. I will not bother,” he said.
Outstation voters
DAP's Pekan Nanas assemblyperson Yeo Tung Seong believes Harapan had maxed out its Chinese support in Tanjung Piai in the last general election and maintaining such a high level was never easy.
“It is easy to know whether Harapan can win or not. If there is no traffic jam on voting day, we know we will lose without having to open the ballot box,” he said.
Pekan Nanas is one of two state constituencies within the parliamentary seat of Tanjung Piai. The other state seat is Kukup.
MCA's Wee is also known as a hardworking local leader and both Malay and Chinese voters, especially the older ones, have no qualms gravitating back to him in the face of disillusionment with Harapan.
Gerakan may also attract some of these protest votes but with MCA coming from a low-base in the last general election, it is likely to make a nett gain in terms of Chinese support.
Wee, despite losing in the last general election, managed to still retain around a third of Chinese support, which is a respectable achievement compared to other MCA-contested seats which saw Chinese support for them falling to as low as 10 percent.
Trader Cheng Tin Xeng, 84, is one of those looking forward to casting his ballot for Wee again.
"I voted for Wee in the last election, but he didn't win, we can't do anything. He is a good person. Whenever you ask him, he will help. He really does all the work," Cheng (above) said.
Voter unhappiness also appears to have manifested when a battle for audience members for Super Saturday ceramah showdown in Pekan Nanas, saw MCA draw in a crowd of more than 600, compared with just 300 for Harapan.
While many were party members, the fact that MCA, which in the last general election struggled to even attract a handful of people to its ceramah sessions, suggests that the ground is shifting.
This situation is likely compounded by a reluctance of DAP grassroots to campaign for Bersatu.
In a contest that is expected to go down to the wire, even small shifts in support could put Harapan in a precarious position.
Some more Malay support - but it falls short
If there is any good news for Harapan, it would be the fact that Bersatu's internal surveys have found a slight increase in Malay support, but it is still far from securing a majority in the polling districts they lost in the last general election.
Over the last week, Harapan's ceramah sessions in the Malay heartland have only attracted between 30 to 50 people.
The coalition did better last Friday night, when Bersatu deputy president Mukhriz Mahathir and Youth chief Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman drew a crowd of over 200 people to a ceramah in the Pekan Nanas polling district of Lubok Sawah.
The crowd was a mix of party members and local people. In the last election, Harapan only bagged 20.6 percent of votes in Lubok Sawah.
While many elderly Malays are still staunchly behind BN, some younger and middle-aged voters are warming up to Harapan, not so much because of the coalition's performance but its late MP Farid's personal touch.
When met near the Pekan Nanas public market, 50-year-old Siti Zawiyah said she had never been motivated to vote for anyone in the past as they were "all the same".
But this changed when she met Farid. "You can't see if someone is sincere, but you can feel it," she told Malaysiakini.
Even though Farid has passed away, Siti intends to continue supporting Harapan.
However, some Malay youths who supported Harapan and spoke fondly about Farid, who barely had any political experience, are now wavering as they find themselves once again stuck with a choice of typical long-time politicians.
Furthermore, whatever gains Harapan may make in the Malay ground could be neutralised if BN makes a larger gain through PAS' support.
PAS managed to garner 2,962 votes in the last general election but is backing MCA in this by-election due to its new pact with Umno.
Berjasa is also contesting in the hope of attracting PAS supporters who do not want to vote for an MCA or Bersatu candidate, the majority are expected to comply with PAS' directive to back Wee.
The pool of PAS supporters is more than enough to cover BN's 524-vote deficit that cost it the seat in the last general election.
"The leadership has told us to vote for MCA, so we will. Plus Wee is someone we know, he is a good person,” said Sarkawi Banjar, 64, when met at a BN-Pas ceramah last Wednesday.
On the flip side, there was initial unhappiness among the Umno grassroots over MCA's insistence to re-contest the Tanjung Piai seat instead of handing it over to Umno.
However, several Umno supporters who Malaysiakini met indicated that they were prepared to toe the line and vote for Wee.
"I will help BN. Even if the higher-ups fielded a crazy person, I will look at him, and I will still vote BN," a supporter, who only wanted to be known as Rosli, told Malaysiakini when met at a BN ceramah in Penerok on Tuesday.
Top guns to make final push
A substantial number of Malay voters, estimated at 30 percent, also work outstation and both Harapan and BN are trying to vie for their support.
An Umno branch chief said he had put the call out for families to support BN and to ask their children to come home to vote.
"But only for the white (pro-BN) voters, not the black (anti-BN) voters," said Serkat Timur Umno branch chief Abu Samah Mat Ali.
The government is also opening an express lane at the Johor Causeway, to facilitate the return of voters to Tanjung Piai.
With only four days left for campaigning, it remains to be seen whether big guns such as Mahathir and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim can help address voter dissatisfaction and turn the tide in Harapan's favour.
Anwar attended two ceramah sessions last night, one near Pontian town attended by a predominantly Chinese crowd of some 700 people, and another in Pekan Nanas where around 400 people, a mixed-race crowd, turned up.
Mahathir is expected to join the campaign tomorrow.
The two frontrunners in the Tanjung Piai by-election are Wee, who is contesting under BN's logo, and Bersatu's Karmaine, who will contest under Harapan's banner.
The other candidates are Berjasa's Badhrulhisham Abdul Aziz, Gerakan's Wendy Subramaniam and independent candidates Ang Chuan Lock and Faridah Aryani Abd Ghaffar.
Campaigning began on Nov 2 and Tanjung Piai voters will go to the polls this Saturday, Nov 16.
The by-election was called after Farid passed away from a heart attack in September, just three weeks before his 43rd birthday. - Mkini
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