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10 APRIL 2024

Monday, November 18, 2019

The Wakil Rakyat Do Not Care About Such Things



M'sian stocks fallen to lowest value in decade
low prices alone not enough to tempt investors 
country’s heightened political risks — Reuters 

KL Nov 18 — Foreign investors not returning to M'sian stock market 
despite falling prices made local shares most undervalued in region

valuation without catalyst is not enough
profit cycle needs to improve on incremental basis

Since PH victory last year, foreign investors pulled out billions of USD dollars 
as a precaution, including US$2b (RM4.0b+) in 2019 so far

M'sia’s capital flight worst among Asian markets 

exacerbated by glum earnings outlooks for local stocks

Investors wary political upheaval not over
PH must deal with power transition 

succession has been muddled by recent political intrigue within PH 

uncertainty on who will be next prime minister 
little progress on govt policy doesn’t make M'sia stand 


Restoring investor confidence even more pressing  
after PH spectacular defeat in Tanjung Piai on Sat 

My comments : This is how the world DOES NOT WORK among the MPs or Members of Parliament or Wakil Rakyat in Malaysia.

Other than Dr Mahathir, (Najib too) and another Tun, in the past I have (and still do - very frequently - like just last week) advise or give my views to various politicians, wannabe MPs, MPs, Ministers, ex-Ministers, wannabe Ministers on what should be done, what they should do etc - from both sides (from UMNO, PH, Bersatu, don't know which party, no party yet, etc).

And here is the interesting part - this includes people who I have hentam in my blog, called them names etc. 

Once upon a time I had an almost two hour dinner with that really cute UMNO lady (ex Deputy Minister who has a PhD) who I believe I had hentam in my Blog before.   Cant recall what I said about her but it was my usual nasty. 

Still she asked to meet me. I said ok.  During the dinner I gave her my views about her Ministry, about her constituents, what she could do, how to go about doing it etc. The interesting thing is she had pen and paper and she diligently kept writing down everything I said. Sadly she was 'overthrown' by that 2nd hand car salesman who is now going to jail. 

But often they do not listen to what I say. I say more or less the same things that I write in my blog. 

One time (2014) I was 'co-opted' to become advisor to a future DPM (and then PM Insya Allah). I prepared an entire Power Point projection for his future  and again spent hours sitting down with him in his house.  Well he did not make it to DPM. 

I can now share just one of my dozens of suggestions to him - open a permanent Deputy Prime Minister's office in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu. At least once a month maintain regular office hours for one full day in Kuching and another full day in Kota Kinabalu.  

Then when he becomes Prime Minister (well lately this is becoming feasible again) open a permanent branch of the Prime Minister's Office in Kuching and Kota Kinabalu. It is super high time we in the Peninsula show our full commitment towards Sabah and Sarawak. 

Lets see what happens.

The problem with all these folks whom I have advised is that they do not listen to many of the simple, workable and practical things I say. (Its exactly the same as what I write in my Blog lah.)  And there is one HUGE reason for this.

We are a parliamentary democracy. The government is NOT determined by the YDP Agong. The formation of a government is determined by the MPs or Members of Parliament. 

Before it was determined by the parties to which these MPs belonged. But since 2015, there were MPs (UMNO MPs) who went against their party chief quite openly. 

Now the same is happening with the PH MPs. It is no more true that an MP from a party will support his own party boss. The prime example now is PKR. 

So the MPs are becoming more independent and more crucial.  In the future the MPs will play a bigger role. There is going to be an empowerment of the Members of Parliament never before seen in this country. 

Here also lies the problem. A Member of Parliament is voted into power by the number of voters in his constituency. For example the over 53,000 voters in Tanjong Piai. The MP's entire universe are the voters in his constituency.

A long time ago (1999 - 2002) I worked with Dato Mustapha Mohamed (Tokpa). With another good friend I spent time writing speeches, manning the office, helping to run Penerangan UMNO, at the NEAC etc. One day in the NEAC I wrote a paper about sorting out the many abandoned housing projects for the poor.  

Housing projects for the poor was often camouflage. It was simply a mechanism to channel building projects to bumiputra companies - usually those who wore the right party colours.  It was political patronage. Hence many such projects failed because the money went elsewhere.  Taxpayers money.

I put my bankers knowledge to the problem and came up with a really workable solution. My suggestion would make sure the bumiputra contractors did their job, the money did not go anywhere else and most importantly the houses for the poor got built. 

The trick was the government WOULD NOT PAY ANY CASH. NO CASH. Paying cash to the bumiputra companies was the problem. The money disappeared (or had to be shared with the party chiefs). My suggestion was the government will only issue government guarantees.  And here is the big catch - the government guarantee can only be cashed in AFTER the houses had been completed and the CF (Certificate of Fitness) had been issued.  

Say the government issued an RM50 million guarantee to a bumi company to build a few blocks of affordable housing.    Since contractors need tons of money, then it was up to the bumiputra company to take this government guarantee and go to his bankers and raise whatever loan he needed (bridging loan ke, term loan ke, revolving credit ke whatever loan) to start building the housing project. 

This means the private sector banks (not the government) had to shoulder the performance and completion risk. If the housing project was not completed, became abandoned etc the government would suffer no risk. Not a single cent of taxpayers money would be wasted or at risk.  That would all be borne by the private sector banks.

(It will also help the bank's weighted capital ratio requirements because lending money against a government guarantee carried a much lower risk weightage (20% only if I recall). In short a loan "secured" by a  government guarantee helps the bank's balance sheet.) 

So it was win win. The bumi companies merely had to make sure the housing projects were completed. (Haiyya it simply means find a good Chinese Ali Baba partner lah).  However this method does greatly reduce the 'under the table' kickbacks etc that are usually associated with these building contracts. So it may not be as popular.

Anyway the answer I got from Tokpa was that this idea was not a priority for him at that time. At that time Tokpa was trying to win back his parliamentary seat in Jeli Kelantan.  Tokpa would gain few points with the voters in Jeli if he gave a sppech saying that he had found a workable solution for efficient completion of government apartment projects for the poor. Such issues were not exciting enough in Jeli.

So what were the exciting issues in Jeli? Well here is one of them. This is a picture of Scarface a man eating tiger from Jeli (captured in 2006) that died recently in captivity. 



Man eating tigers were a frequent problem in Jeli. During my time with Tokpa (1999 - 2002)  there were notorious tigers going around eating people. So when someone was killed by a tiger (I think there were three cases) the office had to make sure that a representative visited the victim's house, conveyed condolences, help with the funeral arrangements, hand over some cash assistance etc. This was critical in a place like Jeli. If this was not done, you will certainly not get the votes. 

People who had to live with tigers in their neighbourhood did not care too much about  government guarantees, bank's weighted capital adequacy, efiicient completion of government projects etc.  "Did the YB help the victims family? How much cash did he give?" That's it. 

So at the end of this walkabout, about the poor investor sentiments at the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange,  we have to look at the voter profile in the constituencies of two Ministers who are responsible for economic affairs that should have an impact on the Stock Market. One is the Minister of Economic Affairs and the other is the Minister of the MITI. 

Economic Affairs is Azmin whose constituency is Gombak and MITI is Darrel Leiking the MP from Penampang, Sabah. 

Are there any man eating tigers in Gombak? There are no tigers in Sabah. What are the issues that excite the voters in Gombak and Penampang?

Does the Stock Market directly affect many folks (or anyone) in Gombak or Penampang?   

If either Azmin or Darrell find great solutions to help the weak Stock Market can they go to Gombak or Penampang and tell the people how much the KLSE Index has picked up or how much the market capitalisation of the Bursa has increased or the average return from the Bursa for the year etc etc.  I don't think the people in Gombak or Penampang will even care about this issue. It may have little or no bearing on their daily lives.

Meaning there is no great disaster to the MP's status or position in his constituency if the Bursa performs poorly. 

Or imagine Wak Jahid's constituency in  Perak.  Can the people there contemplate the negative effects if an extra 1.5 MILLION Banglas were imported into the country by Wak Jahid and gang? Do they care that Wak Jahid made a fool of himself at the UN?   As far as they are concerned their hero Wak Jahid 'cakap London di Yunaitad Nesyen'. They may not even know that he did not know what he was not talking about.

This is where the Prime Minister comes in. The buck stops with the Prime Minister. The PM must set specific tasks that must be achieved by his Cabinet Ministers within specific periods of time.  Issue that are relevant to the well being of the people and the country - inspite of of man eating tigers and such.

This is not happening anymore. 

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