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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Apa Maksud Bumi Bertuah - Asia's Strongest Currencies : 2019 Baht, Peso, 2020 Rupiah



Thai baht Asia’s best-performing currency by a country mile in 2019
2020’s winner has been already decided: Indonesian rupiah.

Rupiah has rallied for seven straight weeks 

central bank said it would allow further gains
Bank Indonesia said Jan. 10 it would refrain from limiting rupiah’s strength 
reflected improving economy 

Last year’s best performers -- Thai baht and Philippine peso 
rupiah : this year destined to finish on top

My comments :  Ok so its rupiah, peso, baht, rupiah, peso, baht. 
There is one more currency called the ringgit. 
Forex code MYR (Malaysian Ringgit). 
What about the Ringgit?

I think I know the problem with the Ringgit. 

Having been born before WW2, Dr Mahathir keeps calling it 'the dollar'. 
Dr Mahathir keeps using the old name for our currency ie the Malaysian Dollar. 

Countries that use the name 'dollar' for their currency include ex British colonies like Canada, the US, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong and the Caribbean countries like Jamaica.


Since the Prime Minister keeps referring the Ringgit as the dollar maybe he misses the Ringgit rates. As the black folks would say 'Maybe he don't care'.


The strength of the currency does reflect the strength of the country and its economy. And when government policy seeks to push down the value of its currency (say China now) that is a double strength of the currency. They have to curb the testosterone levels.


Not so for the Ringgit. The Ringgit has been weak for a long time, since before the Asian Crisis of 1998 - 2001.  I strongly believe that the Ringgit can become par with the US Dollar. It will take some work but it will not be impossible.


So the bumi bertuah is now shifting to Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. 


For decades, Indonesia and the Philippines were the sickest countries in South East Asia. The dictatorships that they had just killed off their economic advancement (I choose advancement). Under Suharto and Marcos both countries lost a couple of decades of economic advancement. 


Indonesia had and still has more  resources, land, water, sea, beaches, population, timber, oil and gas, minerals, agriculture, plantations etc than Malaysia. But they were not a bumi bertuah. Wrong policies, the indigenous people not working hard enough and too many restrictions on other people who wanted to work hard, especially foreign investors. Plus too much corruption.



Bumi bertuah does not depend on how much oil you have in the ground. 
Vast oil resources did not help Indonesia for decades.

Malaysia with less resources than Indonesia was a bumi bertuah. Why? Because there were sufficient sections of the population who did work hard and government policy welcomed foreign investment. The people were educated enough to engage well with economic activity. Hence Malaysia became a bumi bertuah.


Things are changing now. I see that Malaysia is still a bumi bertuah for people who possess a useful education, who work hard, who engage well with the world around them and who are constantly modernising.


Malaysia is becoming a bumi yang tidak bertuah for people who do not possess useful education or do not use their education usefully, who do not engage well with the real world or even with their neighbours, who do not work hard and who are not modernising. Their lives are falling back and becoming quite miserable.

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