Facts don't lie, even though the truth is the first casualty of war.
When two or more sides start fighting, one of the first things they do is to lie about their true intention or motivation.
Senator William Fulbright in the US, who was against the American involvement in the Vietnam War, was the first senator to understand this.
Thus, to this very day, one of the most prestigious scholarships, on par with Rhodes and Truman scholars are the Fulbright Scholarships.
Many Malaysians and non-Malaysians have studied or visited the US as Fulbright Scholars. They stand for mutual understanding and peace.
The recent decapitation of the top leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Army Guards, otherwise known in Iran as Al Quds, to give them the semblance of trying to reclaim Jerusalem or Baitul Muqaddis, is indeed a risky and dangerous act of aggression by President Donald Trump.
The president is the US commander in chief that gave Pentagon the green light to kill Al Quds’ commander Qasem Soleimani and his deputy, and the deputy of Hizballah, a militia that has grown into some 800 off-shoots in and across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena).
Due to the popular standing of Soleimani, who enjoys a popularity standing of up to 80 percent in Iran - if not 95 percent now, since he has been celebrated in Iran as a martyr - the clerics and Al Quds have vowed 300 acts of revenge.
No one knows how the syiah wing in Iran, formed by ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Hassan Rouhani and Al Quds, agreed on the 300 acts of revenge as a fair retaliation.
But that number has become the sound bite of the Iranian and Western media, which means there will indeed be some mortars landing in the US embassy, also known as the Green Zone in Baghdad, or American bases in Kirkuk, Iraq. True enough, such tit-for-tat has begun.
But for those trying to decipher if this is a start of another World War, they should be more careful in understanding the context.
To begin with, the US has been watching Iran's actions since the days of President Barack Obama.
Despite Iran supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad, who launched not one, but several chemical warfares against his own people, the US has proceeded on the side of caution by signing the Joint Comprehensive Points of Agreement (JCPOA).
The goal was to denuclearise Iran militarily, which to the credit of Iran, it agreed and adhered to until the recent act of aggression by the narcissistic Trump.
But when Trump's team noticed that some 800 Hizballah remain active across Mena, fomenting conflicts, sustaining them, and trying to ensure that evil regimes like Syria remain in power - leading to the prolonged war involving Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) against the Houthis in Yemen - the US unilaterally decided to withdraw from JCPOA in 2017, to the horror and angst of many including their Nato allies.
Slighted and angered by the US withdrawal of JCPOA, which means US and global economic sanctions would continue indefinitely in Iran, Rouhani, Khamenei, and the Al Quds have tried to ensure that the US is punished for reneging on the agreement; which European Union (EU), incidentally, is still supporting, as European statecraft has never truly seen Hizballah or its 800 militias as a threat, as opposed to the Trump administration.
Trump’s son-in-law, the Israeli-friendly Jared Kushner, is supposed to be the point man of the White House on the Middle East.
In the days and weeks ahead, the prices of Brent Crude oil will reflect these confusions and tensions, which is why the price of oil per barrel will hover from US$68 to US$70 before dropping down, and potentially going up again.
Stock markets across the world have also seen a sharp dive albeit possible rebound as Iran so far had been limited in its retaliation to US military targets only.
It also issued a statement that there will be no further retaliation if the US stops its unilateral aggression.
To commentators in CNN like Fareed Zakaria, who has a PhD in government, from Harvard University, what Trump did is the near equivalent of a "stupid" fumble.
Just as China is growing economically to dominate all ten strategic industries of the world by 2045, consequently to become number one in all ten sectors, ranging from digital commerce to space-based satellite preponderance, the US is bumbling yet into another conflict, this time with Iran.
But then again, this aggression has consolidated the voters base of Trump too.
And, with an impeachment trial hanging over his head, Trump has to make the US all hyper nationalistic too.
And the best way to do it is to challenge Iran head-on.
After all, Wall Street has continued to grow beyond 30 percent just last week. And this was only the fifth time in the last century in the US.
Indeed, Wall Street continues to manage US$47 trillion worth of stocks and various instruments of investments.
And the portfolio touches half of the American population in one form or the other through their retirement and social insurance schemes.
The fact of the matter is that both the US and Iran will continue to use nationalism as the smokescreen of their own domestic purposes, even if the domination of Mena is their ultimate dream.
Just last month, Iranians demonstrated in large numbers against Teheran for its inability to hold down the cost of living.
Teheran lives in livid fear of being overthrown by its own people.
When the leaders are engaged in a bellicose exchange with the US, however, the demonstrators' attention is on defending the country against the Americans.
Understanding this background is more important than trying to wonder if the US and Iran are about to trigger a world war.
Although there is always a possibility that this can escalate to a World War.
And in any war, as history has shown repeatedly, there will be no victors, only losers.
RAIS HUSSIN is president and CEO at Emir Research, an independent think-tank focused on strategic policy recommendations based on rigorous research. - Mkini
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