KIMANIS POLLS | Parti Warisan Sabah appears to have the upper hand over BN in the hotly contested Kimanis by-election with six days to go before polling day on Jan 18.
Warisan, which heads the Sabah government, has the state resources and machinery as well as the backing of the Pakatan Harapan federal government, and it is going all out to campaign in the semi-rural seat of 29,644 voters, located 55 kilometres away from the state capital Kota Kinabalu.
Its president and Sabah Chief Minister Shafie Apdal, who is in control of the east coast of Sabah, has hit the BN-stronghold which was held by former Chief Minister Musa Aman's brother Anifah almost every day.
Shafie has been tireless, speaking at length at festive celebrations or participating in meet the voters' sessions to drive home his messages on development and how the state government can fight for a better deal for Sabah within Malaysia.
Stoking regionalist sentiments, he called on Sabahans to reject Peninsular-based Umno and BN which failed to bring the desired level of development to Sabah.
Shafie (photo) and Warisan candidate Karim Bujang have spent a large portion of their campaign at Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) villages to explain the Sabah Temporary Pass (PSS) issue which was fear mongered by the rival camp as something that will allow undeserving migrants to gain citizenship.
Warisan's machinery also targeted Batu Enam, the home and polling district of BN candidate Mohamad Alamin.
On the other hand, BN has mainly banked on playing up the PSS issue by claiming that it would ease the path to citizenship for migrants, which the Home Affairs Ministry has clearly stated to be misinformation.
Despite this, many in Kimanis are still sceptical about the implementation of PSS due to distrust of the establishment.
BN has also pledged to implement the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) once its returns to Putrajaya despite the fact that in April, its MPs voted against amendments to Article 1(2) of the Federal Constitution aimed at restoring the status of Sabah and Sarawak as equal partners in the federation.
BN is working together with former Kimanis MP Anifah Aman, Musa's brother, and local opposition parties, namely Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star) and Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP).
While BN won by a big margin in the Tanjung Piai by-election in November, this was partly due to Umno-PAS's Muafakat Nasional charter, and PAS is not seen as a popular or influential party in either Sabah or Sarawak.
PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang did make an appearance on Jan 1, three days before nomination day, but a gathering dubbed "Himpunan Muafakat Rakyat Sabah" organised by BN on Jan 15, is not expected to feature many PAS big guns.
Analysts believe Warisan has the upper hand
Independent researcher Jeniri Amir said it would be difficult for BN to win when Warisan has all the machinery, money and media in their hands.
"The by-election in Kimanis and Tanjung Piai are two different situations. The sentiments in Tanjung Piai were volatile, and the people in Kimanis are generally happy with Warisan," he said.
Noel Meldan, a Sabahan consultant on government affairs and political risk concurred, saying that Kimanis is a personality-driven campaign featuring two well-known local personalities in Kimanis, particularly Karim from Warisan.
He said this was unlike the Tanjung Piai by-election where Pakatan Harapan relied on heavyweight personalities such as Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and federal ministers like Yeo Bee Yin and Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.
"It is a battle of local loyalties and personalities in Kimanis," he said, adding that Shafie should not overshadow the personality of his candidate.
He believed the 67-year-old Karim (photo, right) has an advantage compared with Mohamad, who is 19 years younger.
"Karim, despite his loyalty to BN and support for Musa, was dropped after having served the community for five terms.
"The voters will consider his track record and how he had to make way for someone younger. I think such sentiments will play on the voters as well," he said, adding that Karim's experience and personality will push him through the Kimanis poll.
Independent political analyst Esther Sinirisan Chong, who is from Sabah, pointed out that Umno would have to play a delicate balancing act as the Muafakat Nasional that included PAS would not be widely be accepted by non-Muslims in Sabah.
"The KDM who converted to Islam is very open and may not accept the conservatism as they think they cannot take tapai or rice wine (with PAS)," she said.
She added, however, that BN's cooperation with KDM-based opposition parties PBS and Star would attract support from the KDM community.
While both candidates have gone on house-to-house visits and walkabouts to canvass for support, BN's campaign relied heavily on the ceramah kelompok at the kampung area and its heavyweight leaders, including former Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy Mohamad Hasan.
It is worth noting that gatherings held by both parties were mainly attended by their party loyalists, clad in blue BN shirts or white Warisan shirts, respectively.
Kimanis is an agricultural district with 29,644 registered voters, where 63.16 percent are Muslim bumiputera, 30.67 percent non-Muslim bumiputera, 3.59 percent Chinese and 2.58 percent others.
While Sabah has an estimated 42 ethnic groups that comprise more than 200 sub-ethnic groups, bumiputera voters are mainly being classified as Muslim bumiputera and non-Muslim bumiputera.
A party official told Malaysiakini that Warisan started off in the belief it could garner around 55 percent of support in Kimanis. However, the source admitted to being concerned that BN has been gaining traction by harping on PSS.
On the other hand, an Umno official believes that it is not impossible for BN to secure a 2,000-majority vote victory.
Bread and butter issues the key
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said that while Shafie fought the last general election harping on Sabah nationalism and his own charisma, the situation had changed slightly after almost two years in government.
He said the economic factors, which included the cost of living, job opportunities and economic growth would factor in the Kimanis vote.
"The economy is not expanding. People on the ground are complaining that their salaries are stagnant while they have to fork out more money for goods," said Awang, who is the associate professor of the Department of Socioculture, Academy of Malay Studies, University of Malaya.
He added that Warisan needed to ensure internal solidarity and also keep an eye on its relationship with Bersatu, its partner in Pakatan Harapan. Bersatu absorbed a number of Sabah Umno MPs when it spread its wings to the state.
Awang Azman pointed out that there is a possible element of sabotage or the machinery on the ground not pushing all out to win the polls.
Both Jeniri and Meldan, however, disagreed with this, saying that anything short of a victory would not only be damaging to Warisan but also the credibility of Harapan.
"It is also in the interest of Bersatu to ensure Warisan wins the poll," said Meldan, adding Harapan needed the victory after its defeats in several by-elections in 2019, particular the Tanjung Piai poll where BN won with an overwhelming majority of 15,087 votes.
Agreeing, Jeniri said the politicking between Warisan and Bersatu would be postponed until the next general election.
Both Chong and Meldan felt that Warisan needed to do a better job of explaining the foreign migrants issue and countering misinformation on PSS.
Meldan pointed out that Warisan was a little bit defensive when it claimed that the PSS was an idea from BN's era as the people would argue why the Harapan government still came out with such a policy.
"When you have this conversation that can easily be weaponised to favour a certain sentiment or agenda, the smart move is to be more aggressive in messaging and communications to deliver the message saying this is the right way to go," he said.
Chong added her view that Shafie cannot afford to lose the battle as it would change the political landscape in Sabah.
She too, noted that national issues were not at play in the Kimanis vote as compared to the previous general election.
"The issue of leaders allegedly involved in graft is not a concern because the people are used to such political culture. What matters to them is getting the roads in front of their house being fixed," she said. - Mkini
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