Analysts: Dr M’s political future looks bleak, but don't discount 'nine lives'

In light of the crisis wracking Bersatu and with his leadership in dispute, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is looking at a bleak political future, analysts have predicted.

This is especially in light of the recent Registrar of Societies’ (ROS) affirmation of Mahathir’s (photo) resignation as party chairperson in February.

University Malaya (UM) associate professor Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the latest arrangement indicated that Mahathir failed in his bid when he resigned.

Mahathir had resigned as both prime minister and Bersatu chairperson on Feb 24, after the party defied him and took Bersatu out of Pakatan Harapan to form Perikatan Nasional.

This led to the fall of the Harapan-led government and Muhyiddin taking over as prime minister, instead.

According to Awang Azman, unless Mahathir has a backup plan, he and his followers could end up being dismissed from Bersatu.

He said Bersatu could embark on a cleansing of party membership to eliminate any threat to the leadership or further rifts in the party.

Even so, the political analyst did not dismiss the possibility of a comeback by the former prime minister.

“Mahathir is known for having nine lives in politics, just like cats.

“He will do anything to win back his position, up to the last second,” he told Malaysiakini.

Shoring up MP support

Yesterday, the ROS also affirmed that Bersatu president, Muhyiddin, was the acting chairperson until a new chairperson is elected.

In a letter, the ROS cited Article 16.9 of the party constitution for its verdict in which if the chairperson resigns or is sacked from the party, the president will assume the post of acting chairperson until a new chairperson is elected.

It was previously reported that Mahathir was the sole nominee for the post in the upcoming Bersatu polls, however, that has been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

His son, party deputy president Mukhriz was to take on Muhyiddin for the president's post.

For the record, Bersatu leadership initially rejected the resignation, seeking to and succeeding in convincing Mahathir to stay on as chairperson shortly after he resigned.

However, when the latter failed to see eye-to-eye with the PN plan, Muhyiddin’s faction subsequently disregarded the decision asking the Langkawi MP to stay.

As Mahathir mounts a campaign against Muhyiddin, Bersatu is now arguing that the party did not have the power to reject Mahathir's resignation and, therefore, his resignation stood.

The former premier himself dismissed ROS’ assertion, arguing that it failed to take into account several factors, including him retaining the chairperson position unopposed after nominations for the Bersatu election closed on March 16.

Mahathir is also seeking to invalidate Hamzah Zainudin's appointment as Bersatu secretary-general.

The ROS comes under the purview of the home minister. In Muhyiddin’s cabinet, the Home Ministry portfolio is currently being helmed by Hamzah. 

Recently, it was reported that the Bersatu supreme council had been slated to hold a meeting, however, without inviting Mahathir and Mukhriz.

Party sources told Malaysiakini that there were efforts to move against the duo, with a worst-case scenario resulting in their sacking. However, the meeting was subsequently postponed.

Awang Azman suggested to Malaysiakini that the best plan for Mahathir and his followers to remain relevant in the political landscape would be to garner the support of other Bersatu MPs to push for the motion of no-confidence against Muhyiddin in the Dewan Rakyat.

Fading voices

Meanwhile, analyst Jeniri Amir said the veteran politician must give way to others to lead the party and the country.

He said the ROS letter indicated that Mahathir’s position in Bersatu was no longer significant and, at the same time, served to solidify Muhyiddin’s position.

“The implication (of the ROS letter) is that Muhyiddin's position is more certain and solid as the main thorn in his side in terms of Bersatu was Mahathir,” said the associate professor.

Jeniri, a former lecturer with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, added that Mahathir’s only other option is to join another party such as PKR or DAP.

“They (Mahathir and his followers) are left hanging on the edge. So they would be voiceless in the country’s politics.

"What more Mahathir who is no longer relevant. What power does he seek? He had power for so long... 22 years and 22 months. Is that not enough?” he questioned.

A third analyst Malaysiakini spoke to, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia's (UKM) Kartini Aboo Talib, said Mahathir, who served both as Malaysia’s fourth and seventh prime minister, still had the choice of supporting Muhyiddin’s leadership.

“Open choice, (Mahathir) and his followers could opt to join PN or to be with the Opposition,” she said.

Kartini, however, opined that it would be better served if Mahathir and his faction remained with the Opposition bloc.

This is as she said they could serve as check and balance to the new government.

When asked if Mahathir could still come up with a comeback strategy, Kartini said this was not likely for the nonagenarian as many people had already accepted the PN administration.

She further stated that the alliance could prove effective in handling the Covid-19 crisis.

“They need to accept that they are back in the Opposition,” she said, predicting that Mahathir would not pursue his motion of no-confidence in the next Parliament session. - Mkini