Singapore cuts 2020 GDP forecast for third time on virus outbreak

CORONAVIRUS | Singapore downgraded its 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the third time on Tuesday, the trade ministry said, as the bellwether economy braces for the deepest recession in its history.

The city-state lowered its GDP forecast range to a contraction of 7.0 percent to 4.0 percent from the prior range of a decline of 1.0 percent to 4.0 percent.

Singapore’s economy fell 0.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, the ministry of trade and industry said, and 4.7 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, a less severe decline than advance estimates.

“Notwithstanding the downgrade, there continues to be a significant degree of uncertainty over the length and severity of the Covid-19 outbreak, as well as the trajectory of the economic recovery,” the trade ministry said in a statement.

Singapore also downgraded its 2020 forecast for non-oil domestic exports to -4.0 percent to -1.0 percent, from -0.5  percent to 1.5 percent previously.

Exports had been a rare bright spot for the economy mainly due to a surge in demand for pharmaceuticals.

Analysts expect the trade-reliant economy to see a deeper contraction in the second quarter due to a two-month lockdown, in which most workplaces closed to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Singapore is facing the deepest recession in its 55-year history, and authorities have warned that unemployment is likely to rise and wages drop.

The city-state has among the highest number of infections in Asia and has said that easing of the lockdown from next month will only be done gradually.

The government first flagged the possibility of a recession in February when it cut its 2020 GDP forecast to -0.5 percent to 1.5 percent, from 0.5 percent to 2.5 percent previously.

Singapore’s finance minister is set to deliver the latest in a string of economic packages to offset the hit to businesses and households from the Covid-19 pandemic later on Tuesday.

- Reuters