GPS cements itself as kingmaker for next general election

From Murray Hunter

The Sarawak elections were never going to be any threat to the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) government.

Rather, the state elections were more of a referendum on the popularity of Abang Johari Openg, who had taken over the leadership after the death of the popular Adenan Satem.

There were some uncertainties whether infighting between GPS component parties, Parti Pesaka Bersatu (PBB), Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) and Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) would affect support.

In addition, GPS was rebranded and went into the election with the message “Sarawak First”. This move saw GPS completely disassociate itself from the peninsula-based Barisan Nasional coalition, of which GPS was a part until 2018.

This paid off handsomely. PRS won all the 11 seats it contested. Parti Demokratik Progresif (PDP) won five seats, and SUPP won 13 out of the 18 seats it contested.

PBB won all the 47 seats the party contested, well over the 42 mark, which would allow PBB to govern on its own right. This maintains PBB’s prominent place in Sarawak politics that would appear very difficult to dislodge for generations to come.

The results also fulfilled a long-held ambition by PBB to rid the state of political influence from the peninsula.

Dr Mahathir Mohamed, while prime minister, had threatened to move Bersatu to Sarawak to contest the state elections. However, both Umno and Bersatu agreed with GPS not to field candidates this time.

PAS, which has a political office in Kuching, fielded a single candidate who lost.

DAP, which won seven seats in the 2016 election, lost five seats to GPS, leaving it with just two representatives, while Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR failed in all the 28 seats the party contested.

Anwar was seen campaigning around the state. However, many reported that PKR didn’t provide any vision for Sarawak.

PKR had poorly mismanaged the Sarawak wing, which was left without any figure able to rally any passion for the party locally.

Pakatan Harapan also failed to form any alliance with the new state opposition Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB), which split the votes in three-cornered fights.

PKR had lost its two representatives to PSB, which managed to win four seats in its debut election.

The result for GPS was known within 90 minutes of the closing of voting.

GPS has established itself as a key kingmaker in federal politics in the next general election, which is most likely to be in 2023. It should be able to expand from the current 18 out of 31 available seats in Sarawak, forming a united and influential block in the next Parliament.

This has great implications for PH’s road to Putrajaya.

Relations between PH and GPS is not good, and it is most unlikely now that much support will come from Sarawak.

Umno is the winner in Putrajaya, as staying completely out of Sarawak politics is likely to provide it with a powerful support block.

The low voter turnout in the Sarawak elections, of 60%, clearly favoured GPS. Many Sarawakians working in the peninsula didn’t return home, nor did those working in urban areas bother to return to their kampungs and longhouses.

The campaign was very much based on patronage and personality, where the single-issue Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK), advocating secession from Malaysia, failed to garner enough votes for most candidates to keep their deposits.

This doesn’t mean there is no support for an independent Sarawak.

GPS read the issue well, promising “Sarawak First”.

The vote passing the Malaysia Agreement (MA63) legislation to change the Federal Constitution back to defining Sabah and Sarawak as territories and equal partners to Malaya is more than symbolic to GPS.

GPS and, in particular, PBB, have long wanted maximum autonomy from Putrajaya.

Expect to see Sarawak wanting more freedom in determining education issues, oil and gas rights, more funding for infrastructure development, and maybe even more say in policing.

Sarawak is now a country within a country. This has always been the PBB ambition, as the party elite believe they can’t go it alone. They now have the full respect of Putrajaya, which needs Sarawak more than Sarawak needs Putrajaya.

This doesn’t mean that GPS doesn’t have much more work to do.

Infrastructure development in the state is the poorest in Malaysia. Many are also weary of an old guard of elite politicians from elite families, who are sometimes seen as condescending.

The risk for Sarawak, with only a nominal opposition, is that the leadership may become complacent.

GPS must groom a new generation of leaders to replace the present. This recent elections gives it the time to do that.

This elections has cemented the destiny of politics within Malaysia. Sarawak is now politically independent, while GPS will most certainly act as a kingmaker to keep Umno in power after the next general election. - FMT

 Murray Hunter is an independent researcher and former professor with the Prince of Songkhla University and Universiti Malaysia Perlis.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.