Clear and present danger not just for Bersih but also Najib

It looks like Prime Minister Najib Razak is determined to dig in despite a signal from stalwarts within his UMNO party that he was going about the July 9 Bersih rally in the wrong way. Instead of of easing off, the Najib administration moved further into a test of wills.

It returned fire by zooming in on the Chinese jugular in the Pakatan Rakyat, arresting DAP Selangor executive councilor Ronnie Liu for allegedly promoting the Bersih 2.0 Rally due for July 9.

But rather than break the will of the citizens or the opposition, Najib and his conspirators may have miscalculated.

UMNO factions eye Emergency rule with wariness

In the coming days, Malaysians can expect a political roller-coaster if Najib decides to press on. He is likely to face opposition not just from citizens, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, Pakatan but also key players from within his own UMNO party.

It is believed that discussions are already underway amongst UMNO warlords to oust Najib before the next general election to prevent further harm to the BN's chances.

Some even say this might be the reason why Najib is opposing Bersih with such vehemence. If he were to launch Emergency rule, as he has threatened, it might consolidate his hold on the country but chances are high, he would be toppled by his own UMNO peers.

"UMNO power-brokers consider Emergency law as a means for Najib to prolong his own stay as party president," an UMNO watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.

"The word is that Mahathir wants one term for each president, which means each PM, because the queue is too long. Don't forget his son Mukhriz is not that young. There is more than meets the eye in UMNO right now and I would be very careful if I were Najib."

Message from Mahathir?

The Bersih rally is organised by 62 of the country's top NGOs and they plan to deliver a memorandum to the King, demanding that the Najib administration implements 8 electoral reforms to prevent fraud before the next general election takes place.

Panicked by the possibility the citizens' march could spell his early ouster from UMNO, Najib launched a severe crackdown on Bersih supporters as well as Pakatan leaders for throwing their support behind the planned rally.

His foolish misstep, even to the point of threatening Emergency rule, has also alarmed other UMNO stalwarts who are beginning to distance themselves from him. A very telling blog posting from Matthias Chang, the influential former political secretary to ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad, has given Najib a public scolding.

"If Barisan Nasional insists on adopting the sledge hammer approach to the Bersih Rally, they will lose the next election. The blowback will be intense and unforgiving. And if Najib is naïve and foolish enough to declare an Emergency and launch another Operations Lalang, the Chinese and Indian voters will abandon Barisan Nasional in droves and whatever efforts thus far to win back their allegiance will go up in smoke. This is a given," said Matthias.

Matthias also advised Najib and BN to join the rally as invited by the Bersih organizing chairman, Ambiga Sreenevasan.

Matthias, who used to advise Mahathir on Chinese affairs, also gave a rare glimpse into what goes on amongst the ruling elite in UMNO.

"Prime Minister Najib will be the ultimate loser in the coming General Election and will be ousted just like his predecessor, Tun Abdullah Badawi. There are four main factions in UMNO, three of which are determined to prevent the PM’s faction from gaining an overwhelming upper-hand and a repetition of 'Pak Lah’s political theatrics' – when the family, in-laws included ruled supreme," wrote Matthias.

"The Prime Minister is a seasoned politician, adept at surviving the back-stabbing and double-dealings inherent in all political power-grabs. So why is he reacting in such a high-handed manner to the Bersih challenge?"

The Chinese jugular

Meanwhile, top DAP leaders have been silent so far on Liu's arrest, and there is speculation amongst the UMNO-BN camp that they might take fright at the unusual police aggression. They cited secretary-general Lim Guan Eng's postponement of a Bersih-related ceramah or public lecture earlier this week.

But seasoned pundits said the DAP was more likely to be lying low.

"I don't think DAP will behave like MCA," Pakatan watcher Eddie Wong told Malaysia Chronicle.

He was referring to BN component party, the MCA, which was the first to abandon Bersih, accusing the citizens' march of being an opposition ploy.

But in doing so, MCA president Chua Soi Lek received tremendous criticism from which he is unlikely to recover from. His credibility, never high, was wiped out due to his swiftness to bow to Najib's order, disregarding the wishes of the people.

Even a Chinese commercial body, which called on Bersih organizers to cancel its plans, has been panned for putting business considerations above the long-term needs of the people. Its ill-advised move is widely believed to have been instigated by the MCA.

Meanwhile, Liu has been released on a bail of RM3,000-00. The arrest was made in the wee hours of the morning after the Selangor Pakatan team had finished a round ceramah or political discourse in Hulu Selangor, together with Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim.

This is not the first time the Pandamaran assemblyman has been hauled up over Bersih. He was detained during the 2007 Bersih march, but this time, it is especially galling not just to the DAP but to Malaysians in general, who are fed up with the police high-handedness.

In Alor Star, PKR leader Gooi Hsiao Leung Gooi and more than 10 people were also arrested for alleged activities related to Bersih. "It is getting out of hand but let's give the authorities more rope," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

Think calmly, PAS advises Najib

PAS, the second largest Malay political party in the country, has also condemned the Najib administration for attempting to demonize the rally. The Islamist party has debunked what they call propaganda from the UMNO side that the rally was un-Islamic.

PAS president Hadi Awang has promised to send its entire 1 million-odd members to attend Bersih.

PAS vice president Husam Musa called on Najib to "think calmly" about the Bersih rally, saying provocative statements against it could undermine the country’s image abroad and drive away investors.

He added that the government should heed the lessons from the Egyptian uprising earlier this year, during which the people's anger was fuelled by the government's high-handedness.

“If the democratic system is sullied, then it becomes our duty to clear the mess,” said Husam. - Malaysia Chronicle