Can Anwar and Pakatan Rakyat pull off a victory in GE13?

While coffee-shop politicians are gung-ho and firm in their convictions that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) will sweep to power in the 13^th General Election, there is an undeniable possibility that they might have to wait for the 14^thGE for all their dreams to come true.

While more Malaysians now definitely hope to witness a change of government and this has caused a groundswell of support to surface for PR, the possibility and likelihood of upstaging the 55 years of Barisan Nasional rule, in the relatively brief period of the emergence of PR, may need a longer period of adjustment and acceptance by many Malaysians. No doubt this is a conservative view and based on the pessimism that Malaysians are still afraid to step out of their shells.

But in the political scenario, Malaysians do tend to be creatures of habit and are very slow and suspicious and wary of making changes. They generally find themselves comfortable and don’t want to or will want a long period of time to be convinced to make changes to the political environment in the country. So it might be prudent for PR to assume the worse and redouble its efforts rather than rest on its laurels just yet.

The hard work is paying off

The good news for PR is that all their good and hard work is paying off. But to wrest the federal government might prove tougher than anticipated. They should, however, maintain their growing momentum and work patiently and diligently to come to power in the 14^th GE and they may not even have to wait 5 years if there are snap polls conducted after GE13..

Some political analysts are of the view and opinion that a “hung” parliament might emerge. This most definitely will be a tricky, quirky issue to deal with by both sides of the political divide.

But BN may emerge a narrow winner in GE13 holding on to a reduced majority majority compared to GE12 in 2008.

While most political observers think that a completely free and fair polls is unlikely, a landslide victory by BN will arouse great concern, suspicion and instability in the country as all the neutral voices see BN’s hold and grip on power already starting to loosen.

Dwindling value of the BN's fixed deposits

Ever since the political tsunami of 2008, PR has emerged as a formidable force, causing cracks to appear in the impregnable façade of BN in the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak.

The current highlights of defections by BN politicians are a clear indication that the ground in Sabah and Sarawak is starting to shift more in favor of PR though BN still has a vice-like grip of the two states which they consider to be their perpetual “fixed deposits.”

Some observers believe that while much headway will be made by PR in these two East Malaysian states, the possibility of staging an upset is unlikely as the Sabahans and Sarawakians are probably still more comfortable with BN and need an even longer time than West Malaysian voters to adjust to PR.

While it’s hard to predict the final outcome, it will be very certain the BN’s fixed deposit will see dwindling value as PR is expected to make a case for even more voters to swing with them in this GE than in 2008.

PR should roll up their sleeves to work harder in East Malaysia to build up their power base and capitalize on the fact that their influence and reach is beginning to grow and needs to be carefully nurtured.

The feel of the ground in Selangor

Unlike the distant East Malaysia, West Malaysian states are feeling the full swing and fervor of bids by BN and PR and their claim to power and it is really in PR states that a lot of politicking has been going on in a bid by both sides to swing voters over.

If gauged carefully and fairly, from all the indications of what has transpired so far in the run up to GE13, Selangor is expected to be hotly contested but it looks as if PR has come out with all the ammo to put a stop to the BN’s skullduggery.

PR’s politicians in Selangor are wise to the BN's tricks and ploys after the fiasco in Perak where they were removed from commanding power in the silver state on dubious grounds and this has therefore cause PR leaders in Selangor to be on the guard.

Recently, by fronting a political novice like Chua Tee Yong, the MCA’s Young Professional Bureau’s chief as the whipping boy for PR, by raising the so-called Talamgate issue, which is a case bearing no direction and based on superficial and vague accusations, more meant for Tee Yong to receive a hiding from the Selangor government, the BN ploy has completely backfired and veered off-track.

If this isn’t bad enough, MCA’s top honcho Chua Soi Lek‘s claim of a water crisis in Selangor has created an erosion of confidence in MCA and a belief that they are merely barking for the federal government in the squabble to regain the state government which PR has been duly watchful to contain.

It looks certain therefore that Selangor voters know the tricks of BN and have duly voiced their interest and intent in wanting to see the PR continue to rule the state for their betterment.

The silver state of Perak and the island of Penang

Very surprisingly, even to veteran political pundits, PR has not only consolidated its position in the states of Perak, Penang, Kedah and Kelantan but it has managed very admirably to grow their position and these states are now even stronger strongholds that will be extremely tough for the BN to snatch back anytime soon.

In Perak there are very glaring and evident signs that the voters are just waiting to unleash their anger on BN over its 2008 power grab that included the manipulation of the Palace despite voters having elected PR to govern the state.

Voters in Perak are really seething with rage and are waiting to take their revenge on the Perak BN government. This is expected to translate into a landslide victory for PR in the silver state and the BN votes to drop to an all time low.

In Penang, owing to the sterling performance of chief minister Lim Guan Eng, there is overwhelming evidence to suggest that PR will gain a landslide victory as well in this state with DAP seeing an increase in the number of seats to be won by them.

PR’s grip tightens in Kedah and Kelantan

While BN has been trying very hard to grab power from the PR governments of Kedah and Kelantan, the two states, effectively PAS strongholds, are not going to budge or give way to BN to claim any victory here.

While certain stunts have been pulled off by BN to try and topple the PR governments in the two states, these have been rendered ineffective as the wishes of the people there are for PR to stay in power.

If BN hopes to try and seize power in these two states, it is merely wishful thinking.

The nominal states

If PR is to gain great growth and witnessed as having made any headway, it will be in the “nominal states” of Negeri Sembilan and Johor.

If read and gauged accurately, it might not come as a surprise that the fence-sitting Negeri Sembilan becomes another PR state in GE13, with Johor being fiercely-contested and PR making great progress there.

It is really in the run up to GE13 where PR needs to put more push into their claim to greater power by working tirelessly in Negeri Sembilan and Johor to swing voters to their favor.

The ground is fertile for PR to work and win in these two states. The scope for growth and expansion by PR is tremendous and PR should not allow the opportunity to escape in any way.

The BN die-hards

With the political situation unfolding as such at present, BN is left only with their traditional supporters in Perlis, Terengganu, Pahang and Melaka.

But besides this, there is a scattering of support from across the states of West Malaysia, and support in the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak which should be enough to see them stay in power by a very slim and simple majority in GE13.

The federal territory of Kuala Lumpur should still hold in PR’s favor while the federal territories of Putrajaya and Labuan are expected to go BN’s way.

Should BN be retained to stay in power, the coalition will be hard pressed to deliver and will have to bend over backwards and transform and reform rapidly to not go out in shame in GE14.

But what looks set to happen is that these are the last rounds for the political party that has held power in the country since Independence and it certainly does look as if Malaysians are awakening to change and are gradually and gracefully transferring power to PR.

Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, perhaps, should be well advised not to throw in the towel and go back to the staid profession of teaching but let nature take its course and wait another turn to prove his mettle at the pinnacle of power in this country. He should bear in mind that all good things come to those who wait. But the chances are greater that he will not.

No matter how much Anwar might relish the chance to steer Malaysia back onto a sustainable path, he is a sensitive man unlike his nemesis former premier Mahathir Mohmad and might prefer to give the younger leaders in PR the chance to hold the wheel. And with due respect to the very impressive chest of young talent in PR, that would a sad day indeed for Malaysians.

Malaysia Chronicle