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Thursday, September 13, 2012

GE13: Operation PA-HANG



When addressing the society of Pahang born in Kuala Lumpur, Our Dear Leader Najib declared that Pahang must be 100% behind BN. Its now our Dear Leader as his posters and that of his spouse are sacred ground. Those that belonged to others are fair game. Defile and do whatever to posters belonging others, thats ok. 

Lets see how things fare in the biggest state in peninsula. it’s a matter of pride when it comes to Pahang as the PM comes from the state. He is MP for Pekan, since 1976 when he took over after his late father. But what else can he say other than displaying bravado to inspire his troops? He had to forfeit the inconvenient truth. He knows the numbers.

In 2008, results for selected parliamentary areas are as follows:-

Table 1


Parliament seat
Actual
voters
BN
PR
% opposition
Racial structure
%age






M
NM
1
CAMERON HLANDS
16400
9164
6047
37
43
57
2
RAUB
34000
18078
15326
45
49
51
3
KUALA LIPIS
21646
12611
8474
39
74
26
4
JERANTUT
37969
19543
17597
46
81
19
5
TEMERLOH
41245
21381
18940
46
63
37
6
INDERA MAHKOTA
39287
18796
19823
50
65
35
7
KUANTAN
35593
16572
18398
52
60
40
8
PAYA BESAR
30887
19355
10852
35
80
20
9
KUALA KRAU
27544
16165
10900
40
90
9
10
BENTONG
39004
25134
12585
32
43
56
11
BERA
33064
18051
14230
43
61
38
M=Malay; NM=Non-Malay

Column 6 shows the share of popular votes obtained by PR. PR made good showing in Raub(45%), Jerantut(46%), Temerloh(46%), Indera Mahkota(50%), Kuantan(52%) and Bera(43%). Based on 2008 performance, 6 seats showed great promise for PR. They won in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota(both through PKR).

There are a few peculiar features shown by Pahang and which are capable of being generalized.

(1) Areas with a large Malay population do not necessarily lead to easy wins for BN. Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan all have majority Malay voting populations. But in each of these areas, PR secured 46-52% of the votes. PR got 40% votes in Kuala Krau and 43% in Bera.

(2) It means Malays are more discerning and are ready to evaluate their voting preference in terms of the costs and benefits.

(3) Jerantut in particular with a population of 81% Malay voters saw PR took home 46% of the votes.

(4) As a rule, if PR puts up a Malay candidate in these areas, the Malay votes are easily split 50:50

How stable was the vote swing to the opposition? Very often, the gains made by PR were dismissed as protest votes. They probably were but no one is sure how much of the swing to the opposition in 2008 was done in the name of protest. They can’t all be protest votes and to think they were, would be a big mistake. It would also be a mistake to assume that they are easily retaken.

BN had the power of incumbency. Logically, with the amount of resources applied and having the power of incumbency, one would think, BN would have won big. But people still swung to the opposition. How can one explain that?

Their swing can only be attributed to a choice being made on the basis of conviction and belief. People believed in the PR and so made the swing. This type of voting preference is not easily overturned. On the other hand, votes secured through vote buying, intimidation, deception are fickle and can be retaken. So it is not open for BN to dismiss the vote swing to the opposition in 2008 as mere protest votes.It may even be the case that more votes will go to the opposition.

I have added Bentong in the analysis. Bentong has a sizeable non-Malay population which has shown a marked preference for PR especially for DAP. The Health Minister must rethink of staying in Bentong. 43% of the population is Malay and 56% Chinese. If 80% of non-Malays vote opposition while the Malay vote switches by 30%, Leow is gone. Rumors are circulating in the market that he wants to move back to Melaka where he comes from and replace Fong Chan Onn. BN won marginally in 3 out of 4 state seats in Bentong( Sabai, Bilut and Ketari). This time around I predict BN will lose the 3 state seats.

The best candidate to put up in Bentong would be non-Malay who is also acceptable to Malays. I can’t think of anyone more qualified that Leong Ngah Ngah- the indomitable ADUN from Triang.  Or a Malay acceptable to the non-Malays.

In 2008, the vote swing to the opposition was around 9%. Let’s allow a regain of 5% by BN. that is already a generous concession. That will still leave about 4% vote swing remaining with the opposition.  This of course assumes, PR have done nothing these years when they made great strides and where they won. What did they give? What they lacked in giving in terms of material, they gave in the form of better and more committed service. PR has also contributed to raising general awareness. BN on the other hand does a number of things- paying for votes, bringing development and so forth, daily dosages of propaganda through all the marketing means of the MSM.

The quality of votes is different. The vote for PR is stable while that of BN is fickle. It would also be unrealistic to assume, BN has regained completely from lost ground. Najib for example is busy marketing his own personal brand rather than improving the discredited brands of UMNO and BN. the Najib factor isn’t strong enough to resuscitate UMNO and BN. it’s even dangerous to rely on the Najib factor especially when Najib becomes the subject of greater scrutiny.

What does Table 1 tell us? Using the above table, PR has got clear wins in Indera Mahkota and in Kuantan. It made credible gains in Raub(45%) Jerantut(46%), Termerloh(46%) and Bera(43%). Which means, PR can add 4 more seats assuming the current vote swing remains.

Suppose now, we introduce the factor of a 4% swing for PR. The above table becomes:-
Table 2

Parliament seat
current% PR
Vote swing
4%
Racial structure



M
NM
Cameron Hlands
37
41
43
57
Raub
45
49
49
51
Kuala Lipis
39
44
74
26
jerantut
46
50
81
19
temerloh
46
50
63
37
Indera mahkota
50
54
65
35
kuantan
52
56
60
40
Paya besar
35
39
80
20
Kuala Krau
40
44
90
9
Bentong
32
36
43
56
Bera
43
47
61
38

With a 4% vote swing with them, PR goes away with wins in Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan and Raub.  Conservatively, with a simple vote swing of 4%, PR wins in 5 parliamentary seats. It is almost there in Bera. 

Let’s introduce the race factor now:-

(1) Malay votes are split 50:50
(2) Non Malay votes- 80% goes to PR.
Table 3
PARLIAMENT SEAT
% PR
Racial structure
Malay 50:50
NM= 80% for PR
Scenario # 1
Probable scenario

With 4% swing
M
NM
M
NM

Deduct 5%
CAMERON HLANDS
41
43
57
21
45
66
61
RAUB
49
49
51
24
40
64
59
KUALA LIPIS
44
74
26
37
20
57
52
JERANTUT
50
81
19
40
15
55
50
TEMERLOH
50
63
37
31
29
60
55
INDERA MAHKOTA
54
65
35
32
28
60
55
KUANTAN
56
60
40
30
32
62
57
PAYA BESAR
39
80
20
40
16
56
51

Look at the last column in the above Table 3. With racial factoring, PR can win up to 8 seats in Pahang. With 4% vote swing without racial factoring, PR can win 4 seats. PR can take

1.     Cameron Highlands( kick out Palanivel)
2.     Raub( kick out Ng Yen Yen)
3.     Kuala Lipis( kick out Suhaimi Ibrahim who’s rumored to contest there)
4.     Jerantut( Tengku Azlan is not seeking reelection)
5.     Temerloh( Saifudin Abdullah is going to be dropped)
6.     Indera Mahkota
7.     Kuantan
8.     Paya Besar.

My prediction is PR will win between 4 to 8 parliamentary seats in Pahang.

In the next article, I will try to show how many state seats can be taken by PR.

Posted by sakmongkol AK47

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