Umno ahead of annual assembly: Wracked by 'civil war' & DEADLY

UMNO has been getting a lot of flak of late due to the antics and misguided actions of its leaders including its current president Najib Razak and its former president Mahathir Mohamad. But not all of UMNO's 3-million-odd members are like its elitist top leadership, given to greed and corruption and relying on racism, race championing and religious bigotry to bail themselves out when the going gets tough.

Ordinary UMNO members and supporters are like other Malaysians - decent and desirous of a prosperous and happy future for themselves and families. They too are at the mercy of the UMNO elite. So are the lower ranking UMNO leaders, the Opposition, the economy, the judiciary, the civil service, the flora and fauna, the rivers and hills - all in the country are at the mercy of the UMNO elite.

But is the UMNO top leadership really so powerful or is this because they have been allowed to get their own way for so long that they have made themselves seem invincible? For example, top UMNO leaders can instruct the police to catch anybody, fabricate all the evidence and charges, prosecute in court and then pack the hapless person off to jail. And nobody can do anything about it! Just ask past victims such as Anwar Ibrahim, Lim Kit Siang, Karpal Singh - all three Opposition leaders have suffered at the hands of the UMNO elite.

But is this power or abuse of power? The sudden dawning of consciousness - whether from education, the Internet or sheer evolution and  accompanied by growing public anger - that such behavior is wrong and cannot be condoned is certainly a key spanner thrown into the UMNO works. It brings to an inevitable end an era that Prime Minister Najib Razak and former premier Mahathir Mohamad still hope to cling onto. Based on past record, to maintain power the UMNO 'warlords' have never and cannot be expected to hesitate to trample on democracy or abuse human rights.

But time waits for no man or woman, and UMNO too will have to move on. Members may not realize it but change is happening in their party. The initial stages may be crude and in the form of intense never-before-seen factional infighting, but the implosion that is bound to come will allow the pus to finally exit.

In the meantime, it is everyman and woman for him and herself in UMNO, currently the most-watched and dangerous party in Malaysia, capable of inflicting not only enormous damage to itself, its members but also to the rest of the nation.

Muhyiddin Yassin, the outcast

Obviously Najib and his cousin Home Minister Hishamuddin Hussein being from the Tun Razak-Tun Hussein clan feel that they have every right to control UMNO and rule Malaysia forever. After all if Mahathir could govern Malaysia for 22-years, what more they with their 'aristocratic' political heritage.

The cousins certainly believe they are strong enough to take on Mahathir. They have no need for Muhyiddin, he is not on their radar at all. The current 'plan' is for Najib to continue to be the UMNO president and Prime Minister of Malaysia while Hishamuddin is promoted to be his deputy. This is why Muhyiddin is set to lose his post as the deputy premier if the cousins have their way.

At 64, Muhyiddin will have to really hang in there and work doubly hard if he wants to retain his place in both the Cabinet and the party. He would have to show complete obedience to either Najib or Hisham for them to accept him ito their circle.

This is why Muhyiddin has no choice but to allow himself to become the 'self-appointed' henchman for Mahathir Mohamad. He needs Mahathir, who is arguably the most powerful 'warlord' in UMNO now to keep the cousins at bay.

Mahathir, the king maker

Mahathir on the other hand knows he cannot depend on his sons; they are not clever enough. The 87-year-old former PM has only one hope, that his youngest boy Mukhriz will follow in his footsteps and take over as the new 'Don' in UMNO. Sad to say, at 46, Mukhriz is still not up to the mark but as far as Mahathir is concerned, Mukhriz will have to do. Mirzan and Mokhzani - his other two sons - have even less political talent while his daughter Marina has never shown interest to learn the political ropes from her dad.

This is why Mahathir and Muhyiddin are able to form a symbiotic-parasitic relationship. Both need something from the other. Muhyiddin needs shelter and support, while Mahathir needs someone who will do the dirty work and cut a track for Mukhriz to climb up and trump the cousins.

Muhyiddin has always taken care to show a different style from Najib's. He seldom praises or publicly shows support for Najib's policies and programs. He is especially disapproving of those that threaten the hegemony and money-making 'rights' of the party's warlords and is quick to label these as being either not in the interest of Malays or the Muslims.

To many party old-timers, the Muhyiddin-Najib face-off is similar to the Musa Hitam-Mahathir challenge. Like Muhyiddin, Musa was practically on his own when he tried to take on Mahathir and this is why Musa failed.

And this is also why Muhyiddin is trying so hard to win Mahathir's support. He knows he will end up like Musa, relegated to the political fringes if he does not shore up his defences. But so far, the wily Mahathir has refused to fully throw his support behind Muhyiddin, supporting him discreetly and not on all issues, most notably on education and the use of English in teaching Math and Science.

Publicly, Mahathir has still been expressing support for Najib but that can always change and in the blink of an eye too. Politically ruthless, Mahathir would think nothing of pulling the rug from under Najib's feet - as he did previously to undermine, and later oust, Badawi.

Empty or real threat to SACK

Muhyiddin raised eyebrows when he recently threatened to sack those who sabotaged UMNO especially in the run-up to the coming 13th general election. But who are the people he was referring to? Who are the most likely saboteurs?

Certainly, it won't be the ordinary UMNO members. The last thing they would want to do is to spend their own money on fruitless pursuits - what can they gain from such activity? It would be different of course if they were paid by their party seniors to create mischief, but this is unlikely to be what Muhyiddin meant when he used the word 'sabotage'.

If Umno members are deeply angered, as they were in 1999 in the aftermath of the sacking and jailing of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim on trumped-up sodomy charges, they would just vote for the Pakatan Rakyat instead of BN. Or they may spoil their votes.

This is actually the worst form of damage and Umno leaders would do well to keep their members happy, but so far, they have been taking their party for granted, engrossed in their own factional tussling and backbiting.

So that leaves the senior leaders in UMNO. Exactly how serious is Muhyiddin in his threat to punish these leaders? So many have brought disgrace and shame to UMNO including himself.

Najib too is corruption-tainted and unable to shake off the perception that he and his wife Rosmah Mansor are involved in the controversial Altantuya Shaariibuu murder. Even Isa Samad, the former Negri Sembilan chief minister found guilty of money politics, was allowed to contest in Bagan Pinang and rewarded with the cushy and extremely well-paid job of being the FELDA chairman.

Such dubious credential are of course a huge liability to UMNO and certainly a drag on its chances in defending the federal government come GE13. But carrying political 'baggage' and refusing to step aside for those with clean records are not likely to constitute sabotage to Muhyiddin. After all he would have to sack himself if they did.

Sabotage to you, loyalty to me!

To Muhyiddin, sabotage is most likely to mean someone doing something to block his path to the PM's chair. Who are those most clearly loyal to Najib? At the moment apart from Hisham, Information Minister Rais Yatim, Minister in the PM's Office Nazri Aziz and UMNO secretary-general Tengku Adnan are considered to be the PM's men. Would Muhyiddin dare to go after any of these leaders or would he attack the layers below - the divisions chiefs, branch chiefs, secretaries, advisers and strategists who would be the ones doing the actual dirty work?

Another point to consider is that infighting is raging hot and fierce throughout UMNO to the extent that Najib is expected to pounce on it as an excuse to delay the GE13 until next year. In fact, he has just announced that the party's annual assembly will be held from Nov 27 to Dec 1 and that the party elections would be held only after the country's general election.

Of course, the mainstream media has spun this around, and that the annual assembly could be postponed if GE13 were called. Really? September is already nearing an end. Why announce an event as important to UMNO as its annual meeting with such short notice if there is no intention to see it through? If Najib is so whimsical as to be able to suddenly decide he has been 'inspired' to call GE13 after Hari Raya Haji in late October, this completely debunks the myth the mainstream media has been creating to make him look good - that he is meticulous in his preparation. If anything, such impetuosity would only confirm a chronic inability to be decisive.

Most of all Najib should stop lying to the people. Who does not know that UMNO would want to gather all its delegates, give them the pep talk of the year, rouse up feelings of racial supremacy and yet at the same time stir up the false sense that Malays would perish if BN lost before sending them home to hang out the party flags, and convince the rest of their families and friends to vote for UMNO-BN. It is a certainty that rallying the troops would top the agenda for this year's UMNO annual assembly.

Relax, no sackings or purges until after GE13 - then WATCH OUT!

So Muhyiddin may have just been trying to sound important and powerful when he warned saboteurs would be sacked. Tough warlords like Mahathir would laugh till their tummies ached. When infighting is threatening to finish off UMNO, how could Muhyiddin or even Najib possibly dare to sack anyone? If they did, the party would implode even more quickly.

Perhaps, after the GE13. In fact, sackings and ousters will be the order of the day whether BN wins GE13 or not. If the federal government is taken by the Pakatan, the first head to roll is course Najib's. The purge will carry on until all those whom his successor - most likely to be Muhyiddin - does not like are removed from positions of influence.

If BN retains the federal government with a result worse than the 2008 general election, UMNO would still be wracked by instability. The difference is that there would be greater decorum in the way the 'crocodiles' are allowed to fight in their pit. UMNO would still be the governing party and it would not do to behave like a band of cut-throat pirates out to gobble the crown jewels.

But the outcome would not be much different. Najib would still have to go, although he may be given more time to make a 'graceful' exit. And unless the secret deals currently bubbling deep under the surface find the momentum to break up, such as Tengku Razaleigh gaining the support he still badly lacks as of now, plodding Muhyiddin will be crowned the new UMNO top dog. And sad to say - for Malaysians - their new PM!

Rooster No.1

Of course, if BN stunned all predictions and performed better than in 2008 or perhaps even regained their two-thirds of the 222-seats in Parliament, then Najib would crow. He would be Rooster No. 1. Rosmah would have all the overseas trips and doctorates if she so craved. Another dynasty would be entrenched, the Mahathirs would be kicked out. Hisham can then finally breathe easy and look forward to his reward of taking over once Najib is ready to relinquish the post.

Amazing? Comical? Stage-managed? Unbelievable? Then what about the antics of Perkasa, the butt-exercising army veterans at the home of Bersih chief Ambiga Sreenevasan, the disappearing immigration records of the murdered Altantuya Shaariibuu, the miraculous escape from prosecution of Mahathir and his Lingam tape cronies?

Sad to say, even after 55 years of independence from colonial rule, this is still the state of play in Malaysia's political arena. For how long more will such backward politics reign depends on how Malaysians vote in GE13. But even if they continued to choose UMNO-BN, reforms will still come to Malaysia eventually, although it may take another 55 years! Happily for Malaysians, this is the least likely scenario. Isn't it?

Malaysia Chronicle