Can sympathy win over COLD HARD CASH? Can Mukhriz triumph over Umno foes?

The rather dull Sungai Limau by-election has suddenly boiled up following the emergence of life-size dolls' legs being strung up around town to depict the late PAS representative, Azizan Abdul Razak's loss of both limbs due to diabetes.

But perhaps the reaction of the Umno-BN to the incident has been more of an eyeopener than the crude tactic itself. Umno mouthpiece Utusan responded with BN nafi gantung patung kudung kaki , which by its fiery standards was shocking in its tameness.

Perfect reverse psychology tactic for BN

Most had expected Umno to immediately blame and condemn PAS for the incident rather than go on the defensive. It would have been the perfect reverse-psychology tactic to accuse and 'expose' PAS of being callous and exploiting Azizan's memory for the sake of raising the anger of Sg Limau folk against BN.

But perhaps some quarters in Umno weren't really that keen on winning and had only wanted to chip off some of the progress made by Kedah Chief Minister Mukhriz Mahathir. Hence the defensiveness.

Perhaps Utusan had other fish to fry as it seemed keen to show there was no bad blood between Mukhriz and Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin. Mukhriz, Khairy kempen bersama.

Deep Umno undercurrents

Indeed, Sungai Limau is probably one of the most complex by-elections in recent times. It is more than a straight fight for a state assembly seat between two old foes - PAS and Umno.

Undercurrents are swirling and gaining strength - not between the two parties but within Umno itself. To be precise, between the factions supportive of Mukhriz and those of Prime Minister Najib Razak, which would include deputy premier Muhyiddin Yassin, vice presidents Hishammuddin Hussein, Shafie Apdal, Zahid Hamidi, Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin and Women's chief Shahrizat Jalil.

"Not everyone in Umno wants to win this by-election. Politically, a victory will benefit Mukhriz the most but it will also hurt his rivals in Umno and these are the Najib gang. Of course they can't make it so obvious but take note Najib himself has not made an appearance and tomorrow is balloting day. Even if he comes later, how many hours can he spend here," an Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.

"Yes, at the federal government level, BN has been raining cash on Sungai Limau but these projects are contingent on them winning the by-election. So there is nothing for Najib to lose, BN doesn't have to cough up if it doesn't win. At state level, Mukhriz is of course promising the moon and the stars. Personally, we hear he has been spending enormous amounts of money to ensure he wins."

Baptism of fire

At 49, Mukhriz is not a newcomer to the political scene. The youngest son of former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, he was 'born into politics' so to speak.

But this year has been a baptism of fire for him as he assumed the Kedah chief minister's post as well as made a very high-profile but failed bid to be elected one of Umno's 3 vice presidents.

The Sg Limau by-election following so close on Umno's own internal election provides an opportunity for Mukhriz to erase the sour taste of defeat from the VP contest. The loss had more than shut him out from the inner sanctums of top power in Umno, but also gave him an image of being an incapable leader who rose only because of his father.

But if Mukhriz wins Sg Limau - a PAS stronghold since 1995 - he can show to Umno members all around the country that he is indeed a capable young Malay leader. And that despite having been chopped down in the VP race by a conspiracy allegedly weaved by the Najib faction, he can still achieve great things on his own.

In other words, Mukhriz will get to send the all-important message that he has what it takes to be the next Prime Minister and provide the leadership that Malaysia now sorely needs.

"No way, the Najib camp will allow this. They are only willing to give Mukhriz control of Kedah, nothing more. To them, any signs that Mukhriz can be more than Mahathir's youngest son, capable of performing well on his own is dangerous to them. They will put a stop to it, for sure," the Umno watcher said.

Azizan's pain

Sungai Limau has been a PAS stronghold ever since the late Azizan captured the seat 1995 with a majority of slightly over 500 votes. He held on to the seat since then, with subsequent higher majorities until it was vacated when he passed away on September 26 this year.

In the 2013 general election four months ago, Azizan retained the seat with a 2,774-vote majority in a four-cornered fight.

This is why when Muhyiddin recently remarked that eating sugar caused diabetes and then referred to Azizan, it prompted gasps of shock around PAS and Pakatan Rakyat circles. They couldn't believe Muhyiddin's insensitivity, given Kg Limau's conservative culture, and suspected him of trying to sabotage Mukhriz's chances.

Muhyiddin has denied any ulterior intention, saying he was only trying to justify the sugar subsidy cuts in the recently announced Budget 2014. He has also apologized to Azizan's family and has worked hard to help Mukhriz.

But the damage has been done, and yesterday's coarse show of the 'amputated' doll's legs - some with the words 'this is Azizan's leg' - strung outside the BN campaign centres has reminded the folk there of how Azizan - who was their Chief Minister from 2008 to 2013 - had suffered while serving them.

Azizan, who died of a heart attack, had both legs removed from the knee downwards about a year ago.

Slap in the face for Umno-BN if if loses

Even so, the sympathy votes may not be enough to guarantee PAS a sure-win. The going is still tough as evident from the party' forecast of a majority of a mere 500 votes.

Going by the country's by-election track record, if Umno-BN does not wrest the seat it would be unusual given the gigantic efforts put in and the swathes of money spent by Mukhriz.

"For sure, PAS does not expect a larger majority than in 2013. To do so would be politically naive. Those who say if PAS does not win by a bigger majority are being silly and foolish. Tea and sympathy cannot always win over cold hard cash. That is the reality. Of course, Pakatan hopes PAS wins. We are all here in full force, working very hard and we wish the people here will give us that signal," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

According to PAS leaders, the Sg Limau folk know that the general election is over, and even if BN wins or PAS loses, it would not alter the power equation in the state or federal government.

"They know if they vote BN now, they can vote for PAS when the next general elections comes along. This is a reality the Pakatan and PAS understands, we know the people here can be swayed by all the goodies and all the Mukhriz and the Umno-BN glamor," PAS Kedah chief Mahfuz Omar told Malaysia Chronicle.

"Of course, we remind them that they need to look long-term and for sure, not all of the voters here will run off to BN. So we expect to win but it will be by a smaller majority. Anything more is a fantastic bonus and it would also be a real reflection on BN and Mukhriz that after spending so much money, the folk here still won't shift to BN, it's a real slap in the face."

Malaysia Chronicle