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Friday, May 12, 2017

Great news for the whole world ! !

Demand for gasoline in Asia may peak much earlier than expected 
millions in China, India buy electric vehicles over next decade
wrenching change for oil industry, oil and auto company executives warn

gasoline will be much less of a cash cow

policy moves in India and China
fast-growing green car market

China alternative fuel vehicles 20% of 35m annual vehicle sales by 2025

India electrifying all vehicles by 2032

driven by legislation so electric cars are coming

Daimler electric vehicles 15%-20% of sales by 2025 
additional 10% sales coming from hybrids

gasoline responsible for 45% of refinery output
slowdown or fall in demand will have far reaching implications

choices made by China, India most relevant for future peak in oil demand

carmakers Japan, South Korea sell significant volumes hybrids 
fuel efficiency gains will continue to cut gasoline consumption

Asia main driver of future oil demand
China sells > 2m new cars a month 
world's biggest oil consumer
India world's third-biggest oil importer, ahead of Japan.
> 1/3 of world's refineries in Asia, up from just 18% in 1990

refiners mostly rely on gasoline consumption for revenue.

My comments : Well actually the amount of energy consumed will be about the same. The Laws of Physics say that whether your car is gasoline powered, electric powered or pulled by horses the same amount of energy will be needed to pull your say 2 ton car from Seremban to Kajang. That equation will never change.

So for electric powered vehicles, instead of putting one tank of gas in your car, someone must now put an extra tank of gas at some power station somewhere to generate the extra electricity that will be needed to charge up the batteries in your new electric cars.  You are shifting the burning of fossil fuel from your car's engine to the power station. More power stations will need to be built. 

Considering electricity transmission losses and energy change losses (oil to mechanical to electricity to chemical (vehicle battery) to electricity to mechanical)  I dont know how much total energy consumption will be saved.

But for certain the immediate environment will become cleaner because some far away power station is now the source of power for your electric car. No more smoke and oil fumes in the morning.

However electric vehicles are more efficient than gasoline fired vehicles.   And they will certainly have less moving parts so the entire landscape of the auto manufacturing industry will change.  

Even if there is a 10% drop in gasoline consumption there will be major reductions in oil prices. This is from the demand side.

From the supply side there will be a huge squeeze on margins for oil companies as the cost of production per barrel of shale oil continues to decrease. As it becomes cheaper to produce a barrel of shale oil, oil prices will continue to drop. If the margins are too thin then deep sea drillers will be the first to go kaput. Brazil's infant oil industry which is deep sea based will be at risk.

Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani famously said, 'The stone age did not come to an end for a lack of stones.'

Similarly the oil age will not come to an end for a lack of oil.

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