China Takes Big Gamble In Middle East

 Folks I have not blogged much about local issues lately because local issues are just too stupid.  And in today's environment if any of these donkeys fell off the bed and hit his bum, who knows, they may get into a bad mood and say 'get him'. 

China has recently "mediated" a reconciliation between 14 different Arab groups from the West Bank and Gaza.  Here is the Global Times. My comments in blue.

China stands with a bunch of corrupt, tribalistic and cut-throat factions.

China successfully mediates Palestinians to sign ‘historic' reconciliation

OSTB : If they had respect for their words and promises they would not be in their present predicament. To think that they will now honour their "promises" just because they signed a piece of paper in Beijing is really delusional. 

Plus the Muslim Brotherhood is not here. The Muslim Brotherhood controls Gaza. They are also responsible for the war and massacres in Sudan. Surely China did not overlook this little fact.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi witnesses signing of declaration on ending division and strengthening unity by 14 Palestinian factions, in Beijing on July 23, 2024. 

What is China hoping to get? This is a snake pit. They have not reconciled for decades. Why would they reconcile now? China is just a witness, and a facilitator. And it is just a declaration. By now the Arabs in this picture would have returned home  and forgotten all about this "declaration".

high-level representatives of 14 factions reconciliation dialogue in Beijing 

OSTB : High level representatives? That one fellow, fifth from right, is wearing worn out sneakers. How high level is that? That lady's suit is possibly made by Omar The Tent Maker from Nablus. Her head is not covered, so she cannot be from Gaza. Muslim Brotherhood remember?

core outcome of dialogue is to specify PLO as sole legitimate rep of all factions 

OSTB : This must be a joke.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad need to join with PLO

OSTB : This is getting to be really hilarious.

reps from Egypt, Algeria, Saudi, Jordan plus others, attended closing ceremony.

OSTB : The Abrahamic Accord supporters.

post-conflict governance of Gaza 'Palestinians governing Palestine.' 

OSTB :  On Oct 7th, 2023 the Israelis lost 1,200 people killed plus 250 kidnapped. The IDF has lost 683 soldiers killed. Todate Israel has spent over US$60 billion on this war. Israel has been attacked on a daily basis by Hezbollah, by Iran and by the Houthis from Yemen. After suffering all this losses and attacks does China seriously expect Israel to say, 'Ok the war is over now. You guys can take over Gaza'. Somehow I dont think that is going to happen.

China successfully mediated diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia

OSTB : China should compare camels with camels. Iran is Persian, Shia, mad ayatollah dictatorship, sitting on a knife edge all the time. Saudi are Arabs, Wahabi / Salafi, royal family dictatorship, they can chop-chop that Khashoggi fellow - so they also sit on a knife edge all the time.  Hmm...maybe they are alike.

My Conclusion.

To the Chinese Foreign Minister, to Global Times always bear this in mind when you deal with this part of the world. Each time they open their mouth to speak, they tell lies. They are quite incapable of telling the truth.  Even if you ask them the time, do not expect them to tell you the correct time. Keep this in mind before you have any dealings with them. (I speak from some experience).

Now here is what I see.

I did not know there were 14 different factions to begin with. My ignorance. But I doubt even the Palestinians know about all these 14 factions in their midst. The guy wearing the sneakers looks like someone woke him up and told him 'Abu Harbi, you are going to Beijing. Put on your sneakers'.

There is only one problem "faction" and they are not present in Beijing. That is the Muslim Brotherhood which runs Gaza. The Brotherhood is not "Palestinian". They are Egyptian. This is the problem.

The PLO (Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority aka Fatah) would have grabbed this opportunity to go to Beijing because they are totally corrupt, they have ZERO popularity in Gaza and if there are free and democratic elections it is most likely that the PLO will lose in the West Bank as well. They are on their way out. So this Beijing declaration is a lifeline for them.

Not to be outdone it has been reported time and again that the top three leaders of Hamas, who live in luxury in Qatar, have a combined wealth of US$11.2 billion.  How did they get so much money? They have not denied this so far. US$11.2 Billion is about RM52.0 billion. They can easily buy up Tenaga Nasional or Khazanah Nasional. That is how much wealth these fellows have.

And yet negara Benua Tenggalam has promised to help raise another RM100,0 million for them. Why not tell them to use some of their own RM52.0 billion to help their people. Tell them to use their father's money first. Why give them our father's money?

The Hamas have been almost completely wiped out in Gaza by the Israelis. The Israelis have now divided Gaza into at least two main zones, north and south. The Israelis are carrying out mopping up operations to fully root out Hamas fighters. This is taking sometime. But it looks like they are on some schedule. 

So the Hamas does not lose anything by signing this Beijing Declaration. It gives them a toehold in Gaza.  Which they will easily convert  into a firm foothold. The alternative is being fully wiped out by the Israelis in Gaza.

The remaining 12 factions are of much less significance. The Chinese want to show that they have "ALL" the factions on board, including the guy wearing the sneakers. 

What do the Chinese get in return? Well what does this Beijing Declaration cost the Chinese? It does not cost China anything. Plus the downside risks are very small. If this "reconciliation" fails (which I can assure you it will) it does not cost China anything. China has little skin in the game.

But the upside potential is very high. If China is successful then it is indeed a new world order in the Middle East. With China occupying the drivers seat. And Russia as the co-driver. 

Here is why this "reconciliation" will fail. All the factions are corrupted to the core. The Muslim Brotherhood runs on 'religion'. World caliphate, Islamic sharia etc. Non Muslims (Christian Arabs) not welcome. Women stay at home.

On the other hand, the PLO or Fatah or Palestinian Authority is secular. They have Muslims, Christians in their membership. One of the early founders of the PLO movement was George Habash - a Christian doctor. 

Seculer and 'world caliphate' just cannot mix. 
It is actually an explosive mix. 
Then there is Israel. And the United States.
Then there is Saudi Arabia. And the UAE.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.