Budget goodies no guarantee of votes for PH, say analysts

 The cost of living, performance of the economy, and public perceptions of the government are expected to matter more to voters ahead of the next general election.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim delivering the 2027 budget estimates last week. It might be his last budget before voters go to the polls, if an early general election is called. (Anwar Ibrahim Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA:

The financial assistance and other benefits in the 2027 federal budget could improve public sentiment towards Pakatan Harapan, but may not translate into votes at the next general election (GE16), analysts say.

Awang Azman Pawi.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said public sentiment could shift with the cost of living, economic performance, leadership integrity and political developments.

“In politics, appreciation for government policies does not necessarily mean loyalty to the ruling party,” he told FMT.

He said Barisan Nasional had rolled out similar initiatives during its time in government, including BR1M cash aid, Kedai Rakyat 1Malaysia groceries, and setting up one-stop urban transformation centres.

“But it did not guarantee the people’s support, and it even lost the general election,” he said, referring to 2018 when the grand coalition lost power for the first time.

Although the 2027 budget is a government initiative, the finance ministry is helmed by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also PH chairman.

With the next general election due by February 2028, the 2027 budget could be Anwar’s final budget before voters head to the polls should he call an early election.

The 2027 budget, described by some as an “election budget”, provides for RM460 billion in expenditure, an increase of almost 10% from the 2026 budget, and offers a range of measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures and boosting disposable incomes.

Tawfik Yaakub.

Tawfik Yaakub, also of UM, said the measures could boost support, particularly among direct recipients, but the effect could be temporary if households continue to face cost-of-living pressures.

“I expect those in the B40 low-income group, civil servants, government pensioners, young voters and families with school-going children to respond most positively,” he said. “This is because the announced benefits address their day-to-day financial needs. However, receiving assistance does not automatically translate into political support.”

He said government supporters might view the measures as evidence that the administration cared about the people, while critical voters might see them as a political strategy ahead of GE16.

“Ultimately, public perceptions will depend on the transparency of implementation and the extent to which people genuinely feel the benefits,” he said.

Tawfik said the measures could also draw some fence-sitters, but this would again depend on broader economic conditions, including prices, wages and job opportunities. - FMT