BN-PN ‘leading’ in 24 of Melaka’s 28 seats, says think tank

 Ilham Centre says the 'blue wave' is riding high with strong BN-PN cooperation and high approval ratings for the state government.

Ilham Centre expects Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional to dominate Saturday’s Melaka election, with Pakatan Harapan favourites only in Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir. (Facebook pic)

MELAKA:

Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional are “leading” their opponents in 24 of the 28 state seats in Melaka, think tank Ilham Centre said.

In a survey released on the eve of the Melaka polls, Ilham Centre attributed the BN-PN dominance to the acceptance level of their electoral partnership, their effective grassroots machinery, and high approval ratings for the state government.

Its findings showed that 91% of PN supporters were willing to vote for BN candidates, while 78% of BN supporters were prepared to back the PN candidates.

“These factors make it increasingly difficult for PH to penetrate 23 Malay-majority seats,” the report by the think tank said.

The survey also found that caretaker chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh enjoyed an 86% approval rating, while the BN-led state government recorded 85% approval.

Ilham Centre attributed the ratings partly to the state government’s Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat and Jelajah Ketua Menteri Sayang Rakyat programmes, which it said increased voter confidence through direct engagement and assistance.

It also found that the BN-PN campaign slogan, “Asal Bukan PH” (Anyone But PH), had gained traction among the Malay voters.

Ilham Centre said Pakatan Harapan had a comfortable lead in only two of its traditional strongholds – Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.

Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir will see three-cornered contests which will also feature BN and Bersama.

The Ayer Keroh and Kesidang seats, both previously held by PH, will be closely contested, it said.

Ayer Keroh will see a four-cornered fight, while Kesidang will witness a three-cornered contest.

‘PH-Bersatu CSA failed to gain traction’

Ilham Cenre said the confidence and supply agreement (CSA) between the government and Bersatu had failed to translate into effective electoral cooperation at the grassroots level.

Unlike the arrangement between BN and PN, it said, the government-Bersatu understanding lacked a common electoral message and effective mechanisms for transferring voter support.

Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin and five other MPs from the party signed the CSA last month, giving them access to constituency development funds that government MPs have had access to for the past four years.

Ilham Centre also found that 21% of voters below 30 remained undecided at the time of the survey, held from Nov 1 to 12, involving 805 respondents across all 28 constituencies, alongside focus group discussions and in-depth interviews.

It said most of these voters would decide who to cast their ballots for at the last minute after assessing the candidates and parties.

“We believe that this group is also likely to gravitate towards the blue wave,” it said, referring to BN and PN. - FMT