5 things you should know before polling day in Malacca

 

MALACCA POLLS | The Malacca state election is entering its final stretch. Will it be another nail in the coffin for Pakatan Harapan? How is the BN-Perikatan Nasional partnership working out, and is Bersama getting any traction?

Here are five observations from Malaysiakini on the ground.

1. Voters playing cards close to chest

While Malacca is covered in the usual array of party flags and campaign banners to signal that it is election season, many voters were not keen to let on what their preferences were.

Unlike voters in the previous Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections, Malacca voters that Malaysiakini approached during street interviews, regardless of ethnicity, were quite reluctant to speak about the election, with many flat-out declining to be interviewed.

Malaysiakini isn’t the only one that has been striking out. YouTuber “Ah Yao”, who also tried to conduct street interviews in Ayer Keroh, similarly failed.

He even said he felt Chinese voters there were “politically apathetic”, and sensed a lack of willingness from Malay voters he approached to speak about politics.

This quietness can be interpreted in two ways.

One possibility is that political enthusiasm has cooled. Voters may be tired of politics after the third state election in a row this year or have already made up their minds long ago.

Some may also be disillusioned, with Harapan supporters in particular resigned to the possibility of yet another electoral pounding.

Regardless, a reluctance from voters to speak has made it difficult to find out whether there will be any unexpected swings come polling day.

Meanwhile, turnout at campaign events was slow to gain momentum.

Initially, the biggest event Malaysiakini observed was DAP’s fundraising dinner at the Pay Fong High School in Bandar Melaka, with 170 tables.

But turnout slowly increased in the last four days of campaigning.

On Tuesday night, up to 400 people also braved the rain to see DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke speak after he finally quit as transport minister.

Meanwhile, a combined BN-PN ceramah in Paya Rumput on Wednesday night had more than 1,000 people in attendance, according to a rough estimate by Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat.

Turnout at a Perikatan Nasional ceramah in Malacca

Bigger crowds are expected during the various coalitions’ grand finales on the final two nights of campaigning.

2. Besieged Harapan failing to inspire

Harapan’s situation in Malacca remains precarious.

Initial analyses suggested that Bukit Katil - held by former chief minister Adly Zahari - and Ayer Keroh were at high risk of being flipped if BN and PN can consolidate support. Thus far, the risk assessment has not changed.

Adly Zahari banner

Harapan’s safest seats remain Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana, while Kesidang faces some risks if turnout is exceptionally low.

Harapan’s biggest problem is that it has failed to present voters with a clear reason to support it. Is the aim to return to power? To deny BN and PN a two-thirds majority? To preserve Harapan’s strength by retaining its five seats? Or simply to stop BN and PN from joining forces?

Adly, as Harapan’s state chief, initially set a target of winning 18 seats and forming the state government, while also stressing the need to defend all five of Harapan’s existing seats.

Meanwhile, during the Nov 5 dinner, Loke’s agenda for DAP took a slightly different tone - saying the priority was to defend the DAP’s four existing seats, especially Ayer Keroh, and, if possible, win all seven seats the party is contesting.

Anthony Loke

Wavering between taking power and preserving the status quo left frontline campaigners and grassroots supporters unsure of what to focus on. A more practical goal - denying BN and PN a two-thirds majority - might have done more to create a sense of urgency and mobilise supporters.

This lack of a clear motivating goal could dampen turnout among Harapan supporters, especially the non-Malays, risking a repeat of setbacks the coalition suffered in the past two state elections.

Political scientist Bridget Welsh estimated that nearly 30 percent of Malacca voters live outside the state, mainly in the Klang Valley and Singapore.

She also estimates that Malay and Chinese turnout in the Johor state election was 77 percent and 63 percent respectively, while in Negeri Sembilan it was 78 percent and 67 percent.

If a similar gap occurs in Malacca, the number of Malays voting for BN and PN could outpace non-Malay Harapan supporters, making defending Bukit Katil and Ayer Keroh all the more difficult.

Besides inspiration issues, the controversy over a proposed reduction in Chinese-language teaching periods at Chinese primary schools also hurt Harapan early in the campaign.

The issue was only settled on the sixth day of the campaign, when Deputy Education Minister Wong Kah Woh announced that the number of lessons would remain at 12 a week.

The DAP, traditionally Harapan’s strongest campaigner, has also shown signs of being uncoordinated in Malacca.

Early in the campaign, MCA’s Bandar Hilir candidate, Jasmine Lok, challenged incumbent DAP assemblyperson Leng Chau Yen to debate the car-free zone issue. Loke initially stepped in to defend Leng, only for Leng to agree to the debate.

Jasmine Lok's banner in Bandar Hilir

3. BN-PN partnership not without challenges for Gerakan

Umno, PAS, MCA, MIC, and Wawasan Negara have all benefited from cooperation under the banner of Malay unity in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections.

The Malacca election will now test whether another PN component party, Gerakan, can also benefit.

Gerakan is contesting only one seat: Ayer Keroh. But BN and PN have yet to iron out all their coordination problems there.

Ayer Keroh was previously contested by MCA, which failed in its bid to stand in the seat this time. During the campaign, rumours circulated locally that MCA members were quietly helping Bersama.

On Nov 6, interim chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh even stepped in to mediate between BN and PN during a meeting at the Umno division office in Bukit Katil and ensure that their allied candidates would work together.

Since then, Gerakan’s Ayer Keroh candidate Michael Gan told Malaysiakini that cooperation between the two sides was going reasonably well, although there had occasionally been “communication breakdowns” with MCA, and some grassroots members had been unable to attend campaign meetings.

Michael Gan Peng Lam, Gerakan's candidate for Ayer Keroh

He considered the situation normal and believed it could be resolved.

Meanwhile, on the BN side, the coalition has demonstrated its traditional strength in mobilisation and made full use of the advantages of incumbency. In Machap Jaya, for example, MCA incumbent Ngwe Hee Sem has built strong local ties through his record of service.

On Nov 5, MCA held a “come home for dinner” event for party members in the constituency. Party president Wee Ka Siong and other leaders focused on Chinese education, the economy, and everyday concerns, directing their criticism at Harapan and DAP.

Judging from the response at the event, support for the MCA candidate was firmly grounded in practical considerations: local service and solving residents’ problems.

4. Kancil getting in the groove

Compared with its underprepared campaign in Johor, Bersama’s organisation in Malacca appears more coordinated.

Bersama began preparing early and has held more rallies than any other party. Attendance has generally been modest at around 20 to 30 people, but party workers and those attending have been enthusiastic.

Its goal in this election is to retain its deposits. To do so, it must secure at least 12.5 percent of the vote.

The party is contesting 16 seats in Malacca. Its best prospects for keeping its deposits are in Sungai Udang, Bemban, Bandar Hilir, and Kota Laksamana.

In the first two seats, Harapan is not contesting, giving Bersama a chance to attract voters who might otherwise lean towards Harapan.

In Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana, Chinese voters make up 73 percent to 75 percent of the electorate, giving them a greater likelihood of accepting a Harapan offshoot such as Bersama.

Ted Lee, a senior researcher at the Merdeka Center, also told Malaysiakini that because Harapan has a substantial lead in Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana, some voters may choose Bersama on the assumption that their votes will not help BN.

Perhaps aware that Bersama is better prepared this time, Loke had on Nov 5 made a rare public appeal for voters not to split their votes by choosing Bersama.

“The most important thing is to concentrate our votes on Nov 14. If some votes go to red (Harapan) and some to yellow (Bersama), then blue (BN) will win. In the seats we are contesting, if we split the vote, BN and PN will win,” he said.

5. Bersatu flying under the radar

Bersatu is contesting seven seats in the Malacca election but has kept a very low profile in its campaigning.

Some candidates have been almost invisible, and the party has held very few campaign rallies.

This could indicate that - like in Johor and Negeri Sembilan - most of its grassroots had followed Bersatu’s top leaders in the states and switched camps to join the offshoot Wawasan, severely diminishing its presence in the state.

Even so, Bersatu retains some ability to affect the outcome in key constituencies such as Bemban, where BN and Harapan are not directly competing against each other.

Although the party’s overall momentum is weaker than before, it could still influence the result in multi-cornered contests if it takes a decent share of Malay votes. - Mkini

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This article uses electoral-roll data compiled by election watchdog Tindak Malaysia, as well as political scientist Bridget Welsh’s estimates of voting patterns in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections.