Analysis: How Harapan carved up Johor for GE14

ANALYSIS | Bersatu's position to lead the charge for Pakatan Harapan in Johor in the 14th general election has been solidified with the finalisation of the coalition's state-level seat negotiations.

However, the Umno-splinter party's presence in Harapan has significantly changed how Johor has been divided among the opposition parties, compared with the 2013 general election.

In 2013, the then three-party pact Pakatan Rakyat saw PAS contesting 31 seats, DAP 14, and PKR 12.

Up until the point Bersatu joined Harapan, it was assumed that Amanah, being the offshoot of PAS, would take up all of the Islamist party's seats.

However, the Harapan state seat negotiations in Johor ended with Bersatu taking up most of the seats PAS contested in GE13, with 15, while PKR took another five, leaving Amanah with 11 of its predecessor's seats.

The only gain Amanah made is in Kemelah, which it took from PKR.

Bersatu has also taken three seats that PKR contested.

Bersatu gets nine mixed-seats

Of the seats Amanah retained, one seat - Parit Yaani - belongs to its sole assemblyperson in Johor, Aminolhuda Hassan.

However, two seats where party heavyweights were fielded in GE13, Kempas and Bukit Permai, which were contested by Suhaizan Kaiat and Mazlan Aliman respectively, are now under Bersatu.

Kempas and Bukit Permai are mixed seats, where Bersatu stands a good chance at victory if it can successfully split the Malay vote, while bagging most of the non-Malay support.

Analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan posited that mixed seats would be the key to Bersatu winning seats in GE14 in Johor.

Other Johor mixed state seats that Bersatu has been allocated are Buloh Kasap, Tenang, Gambir, Jorak, Machap, Permas and Tanjong Puteri.

The party is also contesting another mixed seat, Puteri Wangsa, which is currently held by PAS.

However, not all the seats Bersatu will contest are seen as favourable to the party, for a number of them were won by BN with wide majorities.

This includes the Tanjong Puteri mixed seat, which BN won with a 9,097-vote majority.

The only seat that seems a shoe-in for Bersatu is Gambir, where BN beat PAS with a razor-thin majority of 301 votes in 2013.

Bersatu has also taken over Panti, a seat where PKR and PAS butted heads in a three-corner fight in 2013.

Another interesting seat that Bersatu has taken is Kahang, a Malay-majority seat currently held by MIC.

The incumbent, Vidyananthan Ramanadhan, defeated PKR's Malay candidate there with a 7,801-vote majority in GE13.

Whether a Malay opposition candidate with an Umno background would be more appealing to voters in the constituency would be something to observe in GE14.

83 percent of Amanah seats winnable

As for Amanah, while it may appear to have received the short end of the stick, 10 of the 12 seats it is slated to contest are mixed constituencies, where BN won with a majority of under 3,500 votes.

These seats are Serom, Sengarang, Mahkota, Pasir Raja, Nusajaya, Pulai Sebatang, Sungai Abong, Maharani, Parit Yaani and Kemelah.

Like Bersatu, if Amanah can sufficiently split the Malay votes three ways with BN and PAS contesting there as well - and gain most of the non-Malay support - these seats are winnable for the orange party.

As for PKR, of the PAS seats that it took, two of them - Pemanis and Tiram - are mixed seats while Sungai Balang, Rengit and Johor Lama are Malay-majority seats.

DAP has maintained the status quo of seats that it contested in GE13, where it won 13 of the 14 seats it battled for.- Mkini