Time running out for PAS in Terengganu

Terengganu is not only lacking in leadership, but it is also short of strategies to win the hearts and minds of the people.

PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang used to fire up the religious sentiments of the electorate to encourage them to vote against Umno, at one point infamously declaring Umno and its members as infidels.

His political offensive worked up to a point, but now seems to have lost its steam.

The trust among the grassroots in Terengganu is vanishing, with the party betraying its opposition coalition members, and their leaders fully exposed by their secretive relationship with Umno.

When PAS won Terengganu way back in 1999, many political pundits said even PAS leaders themselves were shocked at the results. It wasn’t expected that BN would lose so badly.

Although officially taking over the state government, they clearly did not know what to do with the state and how to govern it. Their lack of experience was badly exposed, and they could not come to terms with power, authority and governing mechanisms.

Predictably, their incompetence and lack of ability to govern were laid bare for the people to see for five years. By the next general election in 2004, Terengganu voters rejected PAS outright, and the results were completely reversed.

The party lost all but four state seats. Even Hadi lost his coveted Marang parliamentary seat.

A let down

History has a habit of repeating itself. The situation with PAS and Umno right now is almost similar. PAS has let down not only their previous coalition partners in the opposition, but also all those who voted for them in the 13th general election.

PAS is now but a parrot to Umno, short on election ideas, but long in bank balance. Umno, on the other hand, is besieged with so many scandals and corruption cases; long in bank balance, yes, but having no answers to all the abbreviations: 1MDB, GST and FGV.

Voters are fully aware of the problems and issues at hand. They are also aware of the vast difference between the work that chairperson Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Pakatan Harapan have put in, versus that of Hadi and Umno.

Pitting them side by side, we know for a fact that Hadi cannot lift Malaysia out of its current financial doldrums. But Mahathir can, and has the technical knowhow.

Hadi cannot deliver oil and gas royalties to the state, but Mahathir certainly is a capable of making a decision were he to become prime minister.

Hadi cannot develop the state economy; but Mahathir has his ways and proven methods. Hadi has no clue what to do with Felda; but Mahathir will likely find his best advisors.

Hadi cannot abolish GST; but given what Mahathir has said about the tax, that will be his first move when he comes to power. And last but not least, Hadi does not endorse Anwar Ibrahim as the next PM; but Mahathir promised he will fight for the de facto opposition leader to be pardoned.

These are some of the major issues seen to be affecting Terengganu voters directly. One thing is for sure, many voters will abandon PAS, except for a small group of hardcore supporters that still exist in different pockets of its rural constituencies.

Game plan going in

Amanah, for instance, will be contesting in the Marang, Kuala Terengganu, and Kuala Nerus parliamentary seats.

They may stand to benefit from Hadi’s lack of hard work, his sudden U-turn towards Umno, his political ineptitude, and strangely enough, his poor Islamic conduct in his tendency to be rude and vulgar during campaign speeches.

Depending on the choice of candidates, a three-cornered fight in Marang may give Amanah an advantage. But given the close cooperation between Umno and PAS, the ruling party may decide not to field a candidate there.

This might make it tough for Amanah to go one-on-one against Hadi, although there are rumours that Hadi is pushing for his son Khalil Abdul Hadi to take over the seat. If this is the case, then Amanah will have an easier task in facing the political novice.

While Kuala Terengganu is likely to remain state Amanah chairperson Raja Kamarul Bahrin Shah Raja Ahmad, the rural seat of Kuala Nerus will be slightly difficult, unless a well-known local candidate is nominated there.

Terengganu voters clearly do not prefer outsiders, as Mohamed Sabu and Shamsul Iskandar Md Akin’s poor showings in Kuala Terengganu and Dungun respectively in 2008 showed.

GE14 will be all about strategies and some local issues.

In this respect, it is surprising that PKR has been given Dungun. The grassroots are very much leaning towards Amanah, as the current PAS incumbent, Wan Hassan Mohd Ramli is believed to be disillusioned with his party leadership and no longer keen to stand on PAS' ticket.

Dungun would be a better bet for an Amanah or Bersatu candidate, unless Harapan can whip a surprise out of their hat and persuade a local hero – like track cycling star Mohd Azizulhasni Awang – to contest in the seat. His achievements, his tireless fighting spirit and sheer hard work are similar to what Mahathir has advanced in many of his talks.

The key strategy is for Harapan to put forward talented, qualified and successful local candidates against decaying and/or morally offensive BN or PAS candidates. Such a strategy, in line with Mahathir’s speech on hardworking Malays, could lead to a winning formula for Harapan, especially in the marginal state seats.

Tackling BN strongholds

Bersatu, meanwhile, will vie for the Hulu Terengganu, Setiu and Besut parliamentary seats. All these parliamentary seats, and the eight state seats within, were won by BN in the last election. This also meant that PAS was soundly rejected in all these areas.

With the current political climate and scandals by Umno leaders, and the widespread knowledge of cooperation between PAS and Umno – a scandal in itself – the vying for votes this time around will likely be between Umno and Bersatu, with PAS only nominally part of the picture.

People in Besut and Setiu, the districts that boast the fabulous seaside tourist destinations of Redang and Perhentian islands, are supportive of Mahathir for fairly obvious reasons. If Mahathir were to go there on the campaign trail, candidates from Bersatu will stand a good chance of winning these seats.

And in the face of the Terengganu Knowledge Park fiasco in Tembila, trust in Umno leaders has waned significantly.

Besides, local Umno leaders have no ideas how to defend their big boss, MO1, and nothing to talk about – except fanning racial sentiments and attacking the DAP bogeyman. The only pertinent consideration in this light is whether Harapan has credible candidates for these seats.

But 200 km down south, the perception of the voters in Chukai, home to the ghost of Perwaja, is markedly different. I would not recommend Mahathir campaign there, as he is still blamed for the failure of the Perwaja steel mill that has remained closed, and caused massive job losses for locals.

Kemaman, after all, is an Umno’s stronghold, and unless a local boy in the mould of Rafizi Ramli returns and contest there, Harapan stands a slim chance.

Keeping it local

As a conclusion, Terengganu voters could still sway towards Harapan provided local leaders are more assertive in raising their profiles and show their fighting spirit in attending to their local issues.

While national issues are important, there are outstanding local issues – development, oil and gas royalties, housing, schools, living costs and jobs – which have not been sufficiently addressed and fought for by Harapan’s local leaders.

Voters are already inundated with news large scandals which may affect them directly, such as the Felda fiasco.

The uncovering of these national issues is no doubt is relevant to them, but what about their bread and butter issues? A tailor-made manifesto and a campaign strategy to suit Terengganu voters, and them alone, is therefore required and should be in the offing.

The combination of Mahathir with local leaders like Raja Kamarul Bahrin could trigger the paradigm shift that Anwar Ibrahim has talked about many times. Perhaps even bringing some local heroes into the fold could set the wheel rolling.

In light of the ongoing internal squabbles in Terengganu Umno between the current MB and his predecessor, the presence of Mahathir could be a game changer.

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ROSLI KHAN who hails from Terengganu, works as a transport consultant in Kuala Lumpur, but often travels to the more remote parts of the country to research and write on Malaysian economy and politics. -Mkini