Umno still worried Mahathir will reshape Umno

“Everyone knows my appointment (as the PM candidate) would ensure Harapan's defeat (in the election). So what is there to fear about Anwar and I meeting?”

- Mahathir being Mahathir

Here’s the latest from MCA leader Ti Lian Ker: “While both Larry and Curly often suffered injuries, Moe - apart from being criticised or insulted - would not be hurt or suffer any injuries.” You do realise that this sounds more like MCA, MIC and Umno, right?

While MCA and MIC have suffered injuries from electoral setbacks, Umno apart from being insulted and criticised has not suffered the loss of support of its communal base. Hence BN are the Three Stooges of the Malaysian political scene, a joke but one played on the Malaysian people, who either support them or do not.

And here is the thing. This election is about Umno, not MCA or MIC. It’s about the Malay vote. Amanah leader Khalid Samad said it best - but it is what Pakatan Harapan has been saying all along - as to why former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is Harapan’s PM-designate. It is also why Umno needs PAS to split the Malay vote in their favour (they hope), which is why PAS has become the loyal acolytes of Umno.

Of course, the most important vote is the rural Malay vote which is where PSM’s Michael Jeyakumar (photo) has the right of it - “The decision to bring Mahathir in is because earlier on, for five years, the opposition has failed to deal with the concerns of the rural folk. This is the weakness of Harapan, which has brought us to the situation of having to invite the old man in."

Many opposition supporters think that Harapan can win this election. In fact, they are sure of it. While I do not share their optimism, the reality is that Harapan does not really need to win this election to destroy Umno. All they have to do is cripple Umno in the Peninsular and Umno will fold. 

Crippling Umno means breaking Umno’s chokehold on the “Malay” vote, which is less complicated than it sounds but as they say, the devil is in the details. Some opposition supporters and political operatives from both sides of the divide have looked at the recent ISEAS-commissioned survey on Johor as some sort of bellwether, as either hopeful or pessimistic, but ultimately as recent history has shown polls sometimes do not accurately reflect the sentiment on the ground.

This not only means Harapan candidates winning Malay votes but also PAS winning Malay votes. Sounds strange, does it? How does PAS winning Malay votes help Harapan? Well, it helps Harapan because it makes Umno weaker and having to rely on another party to sustain itself. This will not go down well with Umno powerbrokers who despise PAS for reasons which are far too complicated to get into in this piece.

The bottom line is that many in Umno do not want to share power with PAS. They do not want to be beholden to a group of religious extremists who would demand things that would be detrimental to their way of doing things. Umno wants to be the religious extremists who would not affect their way of doing business. This whole idea of “Malay” unity means very little when you have an ally that would destroy the economic eco-system just to demonstrate how Islamic the country is.

Handmaiden role

Besides, it is not as if PAS has not played this handmaiden role before. When political prisoner Anwar Ibrahim was ejected from Umno paradise, PAS was there to offer support and form what was the beginning of a credible threat to Umno hegemony. Do not take my word for it, Mahathir more or less said the same things when he was demonising the opposition, back in the day.

When Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat (photo) was the pragmatic voice in this Islamist party, the opposition managed to wrest the crown jewel – Selangor – when Umno hacks claimed that there was a zero chance of that ever happening. This, of course, points to the power PAS could possibly have in this election but it should not be something the opposition fears because a strong PAS is not something the Umno hegemon needs or wants as the sole champion of Malay power or so they like to claim.

Like I said, PAS drawing seats away from Umno is as much a destabilising force to Umno as any political party which would drain seats from them. Now, historically three-way fights have favoured Umno which is what strategists in Umno are hoping for but what would happen if a “Malay” wave despite all the gerrymandering breaks the Umno chokehold by placing PAS in a position of influence, much like it did when the opposition won seats that were sure bets for the Umno establishment?  

Furthermore, despite what Umno bigwigs claim, there is still support within Umno for the former prime minister. This, of course, is not counting the operatives who claim publicly to be against the prime minster, the sub rosa saboteurs – which Umno fears the most - and the grassroots who actually vote but may be more inclined to vote for their old leader, especially if he can demonstrate that his party is the dominant force in Harapan.

What is Bersatu if not a reception room for possible Umno candidates who would jump ship if they thought that a weakened Umno would implode or that the current Umno grand poohbah would bring the house of cards down which would jeopardise their economic security with his fancy new executive powers if Umno suffered electoral setbacks in the upcoming elections?

Bersatu's propaganda is something that resonates with a community obsessed with its status in the country and fears erosion of their perceived superiority. So what Bersatu is doing is claiming that the reason this country is in the crap house because Umno has betrayed the Malays by selling off Malay sovereignty to PRC (China) interests, robbing the coffers meant for Malay empowerment, and this is the funny part, distorting Islam by aligning with PAS to remain in power. Honestly, you cannot make this stuff up.

All you have to do is read that The Diplomat article to understand how Mahathir manipulated Umno to remain in power. Essentially what the old master did was move pieces within Umno to destroy his political opponents. What makes anyone think he is not doing the same thing even though he is outside Umno?

What Umno really fears is that the old man does not need to win the election, he just needs to break Umno. Umno is broken if it needs any other Malay/Muslim political party to remain in power.

How did that Diplomat article begin again? “In many countries in Southeast Asia, having elections is a meaningless exercise; in the end, the same party always ends up ruling the state.”

Ain’t that the truth.

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S THAYAPARAN is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy.- Mkini