Winning Johor can decide if Bersatu survives post-GE14, says analyst

Whether or not former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad's fledgeling political party survives after the 14th general election could depend on it winning Johor.

Analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan said in a research paper that winning the southern state could provide Bersatu with a platform to grow from, should it fail to form the federal government.

"The intention is for Johor to become the base from which the party can survive and expand in the long run, just like PKR in Selangor, PAS in Kelantan and DAP in Penang.

"Johor, therefore, is not just another state. It may very well be the state that decides if Bersatu will exist in the long run," Wan Saiful said in the paper published by Singapore's Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute.

Bersatu is expected to be the main challenger in Johor against its predecessor Umno, and win over the Malays for Pakatan Harapan.

However, Wan Saiful noted that other former Umno splinter groups, such party founder Onn Jaafar's Independence of Malaya Party (IMP) and Semangat 46, had failed to unseat Umno in Johor.

He said that contesting in Malay-majority seats only in the next general election may also not work out for Bersatu.

"If Bersatu were to contest only in high-Malay areas while PKR and Amanah take the mixed areas, then its struggle to break Umno’s dominance would be a tougher one, compared to what its Harapan partners will face.

"This means that the other Harapan parties will benefit from the wave, or the Malay Tsunami, that may be generated by Bersatu's involvement. But Bersatu itself may end up with an unfairly low number of seats," he said.

While Bersatu is willing to contest these difficult seats, Wan Saiful said the party wants to be reciprocated with getting to contest in mixed seats as well.

These are seats that are being eyed by PKR and Amanah.

While state seat allocations have yet to be finalised, Bersatu is expected to contest 10 out of the 26 Parliament seats in Johor, while Amanah has only been allocated two.

This could indicate that on the state level, Bersatu will take the lion's share of seats as well, including several mixed seats.- Mkini