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Friday, January 10, 2020

Iran Gave Iraq Notice Before Missile Strike

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News is coming out that Iran gave Iraq about ONE HOUR's notice before the missile strike on Wednesday. The notice was delivered verbally (telephone). There is no indication if the targets were pinpointed in the advance warning but the Iraqis and the US coalition forces were able to find safety before the missiles landed. Hence the zero casualty rate from the missiles strikes.



Photographs of the damage have come out which show that the Iranian missiles caused considerable damage to hangars and buildings on the Ayn al Asad airbase. 



Obviously Iran wanted to demonstrate to the Americans and to the world that their missiles have the capacity to cause serious damage if they wished to.  

Some US folks even say that the Iranians deliberately missed causing harm to personnel. If so it only adds to the accuracy of the Iranian missiles.

After this attack, the US, Israel, the Saudis, other Arab states and the Turks will be taking stock of the Iranian missile capabilities. By any measure it is quite formidable. 

Saudi Arabia would have to think twice and three times if they thought that they could somehow engage in hostilities with Iran. Or that they can 'manipulate' the US into open hostilities with Iran.  After the Iranian strike, the United States is actually backing off from confronting Iran. 

Israel too will have to rethink launching any attack against Iran. Israeli warplanes would have to fly over Saudi Arabia to strike Iran. Since the Iranians have promised to retaliate against any country that participates in any strike against Iran, it is unlikely that the Saudis will allow Israeli warplanes to fly through their airspace to hit Iran.

The equation has really changed overnite.

Plus the fact that the Iraqi Prime Minister and Parliament have passed a resolution asking all foreign troops to leave Iraq.  The continued presence of US and other European troops in Iraq will become increasingly untenable.  

Iran's allies throughout the region like Yemen and Syria will become stronger. Coincidentally or not Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Syria a few days ago for a detailed inspection of the situation on the ground and also to inspect Russian forces serving in the country. Russia has also convinced Turkish invasion forces to observe a ceasefire in Syria. 


The net result of all this is that Saudi Arabia is going to become even more isolated. At least in the present scenario. Despite the advance warning provided by Iran, the American security umbrella was not able to prevent a serious missile strike right in the middle of the US military establishment in Iraq. 

This is a new equation in the Middle East.

The Iranians are also denying shooting anti aircraft missiles to bring down the Ukrainian jetliner.  They have invited countries that lost their citizens in the crash to come to Iran to help them decipher the blackbox. The Canadian Government has agreed to send a team to Iran. 

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