BEAUFORT: Analysts have underscored several factors, other than the Sabah Temporary Pass (PSS) for migrants, that led to Warisan losing in the Kimanis parliamentary by-election yesterday.
While the PSS was a burning issue in the election campaign, other elements, ranging from Warisan candidate Karim Bujang’s past track record to the people’s anger over undelivered promises, cost Warisan its first by-election test.
Barisan Nasional’s Mohamad Alamin polled 12,706 votes against Karim’s 10,677 votes, winning with a 2,029-vote majority. Karim had lost to Anifah Aman in the 2018 general election by only 156 votes.
Sabah UiTM senior lecturer Asri Salleh said Karim had served five terms as the Bongawan assemblyman from 1990 to 2013, four of them under Barisan Nasional.
“People still hold grudges against him. There is a lack of development in Bongawan and he only appears during election periods. He was largely invisible after that,” he told FMT.
“He is more famous for his sarang burung walit (bird’s nest) and resort, than for infrastructure development for Bongawan,” he added.
Tony Paridi Bagang, also of Sabah UiTM, said Karim’s argument that Kimanis, a BN stronghold, had no significant development under BN during Anifah Aman’s three tenures since 2004 as MP had backfired.
Kimanis, and essentially Bongawan, remains a semi-rural area till this day.
“What did (Karim) he do when he was the YB (elected representative) there? He served for a long time.
“In fact being an assemblyman there previously, he should be able to develop his area as he knows well the local issues in the villages,” Bagang said.
During the campaign period, Karim had apologised to constituents, making a plea to forgive and forget his past mistakes when he was the Bongawan rep.
His campaign came under heavy criticism for allegedly having sidelined non-Muslim Bumiputeras while he held office.
Karim had come under attack from Membakut district chief Tay Jock Liang, who accused him of having sidelined the KadazanDusun-Murut (KDM) in the 1990s, an allegation that the Kimanis Warisan division chief denied.
Asri said Warisan could be considered collateral damage because of Pakatan Harapan’s undelivered GE14 pledges.
He said young voters punished PH for breaking its promises, adding there was a trend among young voters to stage protest votes against PH-Warisan.
“I think people know Warisan can’t do much in a year and eight months since they came to power, as far as infrastructure development is concerned.
“But since Warisan is friendly with the PH coalition, young voters actually punished PH more than they did Warisan.
“For example, it was not Warisan that promised to abolish the PTPTN higher education loans. It was PH, but Warisan paid the price.
“Warisan was collateral damage as far as these young voters were concerned, just like MCA was for BN in the last general election,” Asri said.
Anifah factor and well-oiled BN machinery
The KDM voters, numbering only around 8,000 out of the 29,664 electorate, had always been touted as the kingmakers in the by-election. Asri believed this was apparent after the counting of votes ended. The majority of the voters were Muslim Bumiputeras, at about 20,000.
“The KDM votes had a very big effect. They voted solidly for BN.
“Take for example the Mandahan and Sumbiling polling districts (KDM-majority areas). All voting channels showed most of the votes going for BN,” he said.
Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin disclosed after the official results last night that BN had won in 62 out of 68 voting streams.
Bagang said the PSS issue was the vote-clincher for the KDM after adding it up with other factors such as Karim’s past track record, political cooperation between BN and other local opposition parties, and PH’s unfulfilled promises.
“The politics of development that Warisan played up during the campaign was superceded by the sentiments over PSS and unfulfilled promises from GE14.”
He added the Himpunan Muafakat Rakyat Sabah, essentially an anti-PSS rally held during the campaign period in Kimanis, also made the issue “hotter”.
It was attended by local opposition leaders as well as the Huguon Siou (paramount leader of the KDM community) Joseph Pairin Kitingan, the former Parti Bersatu Sabah president.
“Despite the efforts of the Warisan-led government to explain and justify the rationale for the introduction of the PSS, the KDM had made up their minds to reject it.”
A portion of the Muslim KDM voters were also against this PSS plan, Bagang said.
He said Anifah, who had quit Umno in September 2018 but campaigned for the party in this by-election, had also contributed to BN winning the polls.
“The Anifah factor was expected — he has his loyalists and he might have drawn the fence-sitters to support BN.
“Furthermore, his campaign against the PSS also aided BN’s cause,” Bagang said.
BN also appeared to have won the social media war and its election machinery was in top form.
“BN actually has this ‘hibernating’ election machinery that is well-trained. Once activated, it moves in and out effectively.
“Warisan, on the other hand, is relatively new. So, it couldn’t match BN’s machinery,” Asri said.
What’s next for Warisan and BN?
There have been suggestions from political observers that a win in Kimanis was not only important for Warisan’s reputation, as the dominant party in Sabah, but also to rubber-stamp its stake to keep the seat in GE15.
Now that it has lost, the political observers said Sabah PPBM, which had lobbied to contest in the seat instead of Warisan in the by-election, might have a solid claim to place their candidate there in the next general election.
“It is probable. But I have doubts Warisan will budge,” Asri said.
“Warisan is the ruling government and it will make a case that PPBM is seen as a non-native party. Warisan will claim it has better appeal to Sabahans’ sentiments.”
Although Sabah PPBM campaigned for Warisan in Kimanis, the two parties have not always enjoyed good relations. PPBM’s elected representatives, led by Sulaman assemblymen Hajiji Noor, are formerly from Umno and contested against Warisan in GE14.
Relations worsened after PPBM went against a pre-GE14 promise of not spreading its wings to Sabah. The Sabah PPBM was launched in April last year.
In the meantime, the morale-boosting win in Kimanis will spur BN on, especially with GE15 just over three years away, Bagang said.
“BN will want to keep its momentum for that. Strategic cooperation between BN and other local opposition parties is vital in future elections.
“The defeat to Warisan is a wake-up call to them. It’s a signal that the Warisan-PH-Upko coalition government should not take for granted certain issues that are close to the people’s hearts,” he said.
Asri added the Kimanis outcome showed that BN is still relevant in Sabah.
Before polling day, he had mentioned that the Kimanis by-election could swing either way and that BN could spring a surprise.
There were many political commentaries that claimed the victor, either Warisan or BN, will not win by a large margin.
Asri said his feelings that BN could clinch the by-election increased on the eve of polling.
“This was especially so when i saw a lot of non-resident voters coming home the day before voting. I thought BN would win by 3,000 votes or more,” he said.
With this victory, he added, all hope is not lost for BN in Sabah, despite the challenges it faced after GE14.
He said BN had still much to do to recapture the hearts and minds of Sabahans.
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